Archived Week 6 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET · NBC · Lambeau Field, Green Bay Primetime Final

Dallas Cowboys

2-3 · 2-4 last season

Final13

At DAL -1.5 Total 53.5 GB covered · Under

Green Bay Packers

3-2 · 4-2 last season

Final23

Line movement open Oct 13 GB spread -1.5 +1.5 3.0 Total 52.5 53.5 1.0

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 4/10

GB -1.5 but DAL's defense ranks 30th vs QB and WR - Green Bay's skill smashes at home.

SideBET HOME -1.5GB skill smashes DAL's #26 defense across QB, WR and RB.

TotalPASSprojected total 53.5 equals the line with wind pushing under.

Best bet

Christian Watson over 75.5 receiving yards against Dallas' 30th-ranked pass defense allowing 38.6 fpa to receivers.

Quick hits

GB -1.5, total 53.5, implied DAL 26.0 / GB 27.5.
High scoring: both run defenses rank 24th or worse, GB vs DAL skill all elite spots.
GB passing game vs DAL #30 QB and #30 WR defense is the decisive edge.
Near coin flip, expect pass-heavy both ways (64-65% rates), GB nudges late.
Lamb questionable (WR1) and Jacobs out swing both backfields and the passing lanes.

Key matchups

Christian Watson vs DAL WR #30: 38.6 fpa, elite, smash the softest spot.
Jordan Love vs DAL QB #30: 22.7 fpa, elite, premier passing matchup at $5500.
Javonte Williams vs GB RB #29: 26.6 fpa, elite, smash into soft front.
MarShawn Lloyd vs DAL RB #27: 25.8 fpa, elite, Jacobs out opens the workload.
Dak Prescott vs GB QB #3: 14.5 fpa, avoid, toughest matchup on the board.
Jake Ferguson vs GB TE #6: 9.9 fpa, avoid, cap the tight end.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
DAL	Dak Prescott	QB	23.2	$7,000	GB #3 of 32	14.2	Tough
DAL	CeeDee Lamb	WR	19.8	$8,300	GB #17 of 32	32.8	Neutral
DAL	Javonte Williams	RB	16.7	$7,500	GB #29 of 32	25.6	Smash
DAL	Jake Ferguson	TE	8.5	$4,600	GB #2 of 32	10.1	Tough
GB	Jordan Love	QB	21.2	$5,500	DAL #30 of 32	22.4	Smash
GB	Christian Watson	WR	17.8	$6,900	DAL #30 of 32	39.1	Smash
GB	Tucker Kraft	TE	12.8	$4,900	DAL #12 of 32	12.1	Neutral
GB	MarShawn Lloyd	RB	11.3	$5,400	DAL #25 of 32	24.4	Favorable

DAL skill positions vs GB defense

#3/32

14.2 fpa

Avoid

#29/32

25.6 fpa

Elite

#17/32

32.8 fpa

Average

#2/32

10.1 fpa

Avoid

GB skill positions vs DAL defense

#30/32

22.4 fpa

Elite

#25/32

24.4 fpa

Elite

#30/32

39.1 fpa

Elite

#12/32

12.1 fpa

Bad

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

Pass-heavy both sides, DAL 64% and GB 65%, but plays rank 21st and 25th.
GB favored by 1.5, close script keeps both throwing, DAL leans on Williams and Lamb.
Points split evenly, implied 26.0 and 27.5, red-zone edge to GB's 2.0 pass TD rate.

Projected points (market implied)

DAL27.5

GB26.0

Offense profile

DALRank of 32GB

25.2 #11 Pts / G 21.2 #23

273.3 #6 Pass yds / G 280.7 #5

76.0 #31 Rush yds / G 59.8 #32

62.5 #16 Plays / G 60.7 #22

67% Pass rate 64%

1.7 Pass TD / G 1.8

1.3 Rush TD / G 0.5

1.2 Sacks taken / G 2.2

0.8 INT thrown / G 0.7

Defense profile

DALRank of 32GB

26.5 #25 Pts allowed / G 20.8 #11

239.5 #20 Pass yds allowed 210.2 #6

149.8 #32 Rush yds allowed 114.3 #18

1.3 Sacks / G 2.5

0.2 INT / G 1.5

1.8 Pass TD allowed 1.2

1.2 Rush TD allowed 1.5

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 6 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-10-18 19:00 local Moderate impact

Conditions

Clear

Temp

54°F

feels 45°

Wind

16 mph SW

gusts 34 mph

Rain

0.00 in

Humidity

59%

Wind 16 mph (gusts 33): deep passing and kicking suffer, lean under

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Wind 15 mph, gusts 33, clear and 54F, deep passing and kicking suffer moderately.
Lean under on the wind, though both run defenses push scoring back up.
No rain (3%), so ball security and underneath throws unaffected.

DFS

Stack: Jordan Love ($5500, 3.76x) with Christian Watson vs DAL #30 secondary.
Value: MarShawn Lloyd ($5400, 1.96x), Jacobs out vs #27 run defense.
Fade: Jake Ferguson ($4600) vs GB TE #6, capped ceiling 15.1.
Contrarian: Javonte Williams at $7500 into GB's #29 run defense, 26.3 ceiling.

DAL projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Dak Prescott	23.2	13.4 / 30.1	$7,000	3.31x	$11,600	#3
WR	CeeDee Lamb	19.8	10.0 / 31.4	$8,300	2.39x	$12,400	#17
WR	George Pickens	17.2	8.0 / 28.6	$6,800	2.54x	$10,200	#17
RB	Javonte Williams	16.7	10.0 / 27.6	$7,500	2.23x	$9,600	#29
TE	Jake Ferguson	8.5	3.3 / 15.2	$4,600	1.85x	$5,200	#2
WR	Ryan Flournoy	8.5	3.2 / 15.2	$4,300	1.97x	$7,000	#17
WR	KaVontae Turpin questionable	2.7	0.0 / 7.6	$3,000	0.89x	$4,600	#17

GB projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Jordan Love	21.2	12.3 / 28.8	$5,500	3.85x	$11,000	#30
WR	Christian Watson	17.8	8.0 / 29.9	$6,900	2.58x	$10,600	#30
WR	Matthew Golden	15.4	6.9 / 26.1	$5,900	2.62x	$8,800	#30
TE	Tucker Kraft	12.8	5.4 / 21.6	$4,900	2.61x	$7,600	#12
RB	MarShawn Lloyd	11.3	5.4 / 18.4	$5,400	2.10x	$8,200	#25
RB	Pierre Strong Jr.	7.4	3.4 / 13.4	$4,000	1.86x	$4,000	#25
WR	Bo Melton	3.8	0.0 / 9.8	$3,000	1.26x	$3,200	#30

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Christian Watson - rec yards 75.5 - over - vs #30 WR defense, 38.6 fpa.
Jordan Love - passing yards 271.5 - over - vs #30 QB defense, elite spot.
Javonte Williams - rushing yards 69.5 - over - vs #29 run defense.
MarShawn Lloyd - rushing yards 43.5 - over - Jacobs out, #27 run defense.

All DAL and GB props with AI grades

Injuries

DAL 8 listed

Out DJ Rogers TE Knee Severe
Out DeMarvion Overshown ILB Hamstring Minimal
Out Decobie Durant CB Hamstring Minimal
Out Drew Shelton T Hamstring Minimal
Out Kelvin Gilliam DT Triceps Minimal
Out Nathan Thomas OT Unknown Minimal
Quest. CeeDee Lamb WR Unknown Minimal
Quest. Tyler Guyton T Unknown Minimal

GB 8 listed

Out Josh Jacobs RB Personal Severe
Out Benjamin St-Juste CB Hamstring Minimal
Out Johnathan Baldwin FS Unknown Minimal
Out Jordon Riley DT Achilles Minimal
Quest. Aaron Banks G Knee/Toe Minimal
Quest. Brandon Cisse CB Hip Minimal
Quest. Devonte Wyatt DE Unknown Minimal
Quest. Savion Williams WR Ankle Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

GB 3-2, won 3 of last 5 including 31-7 over CHI.
Last meeting GB 40, DAL 40 tie, points flowed freely.
Total moved up 52.5 to 53.5 (+1.0), spread stuck at GB -1.5.

DAL last 5

L 13-23 @ GBL 16-24 vs TBW 34-30 @ HOUL 31-34 vs BALW 37-20 vs WAS

GB last 5

W 23-13 vs DALW 31-7 vs CHIW 17-14 @ TBL 14-35 vs ATLW 20-17 @ NYJ

Head-to-head

Oct 18, 2026 DAL 13 at GB 23
Sep 28, 2025 GB 40 at DAL 40
Jan 14, 2024 GB 48 at DAL 32

Watch list

CeeDee Lamb (WR1, questionable) - his status reshapes DAL's passing and Pickens' usage.
Josh Jacobs confirmed out - Lloyd and Strong split a soft backfield matchup.
Wind gusts to 33 - rising gusts strengthen the under and hurt deep shots.
Joey Porter Jr. (CB, questionable) - absence further softens GB's WR edge.