Archived Week 6 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · FOX · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta Indoor Final

Chicago Bears

3-2 · 4-2 last season

Final31

At CHI -7.5 Total 58.5 CHI covered · Under

Atlanta Falcons

2-3 · 2-4 last season

Final23

Line movement open Oct 13 ATL spread +3 +7.5 4.5 Total 49.5 58.5 9.0

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 5/10

Luther Burden III at $5400 is a SMASH into Atlanta's 29th-ranked pass defense.

SideBET AWAY CHI -1.5line moved from ATL 3.0 toward Chicago.

TotalPASS51.5 line matches the 51.5 implied sum exactly.

Best bet

Luther Burden III over 50.5 receiving yards against Atlanta's 29th-ranked pass defense.

Quick hits

CHI -1.5, total 51.5, implied CHI 26.5 and ATL 25.0.
High-scoring lean: two top-2 rush offenses indoors, 51.5 total.
Burden vs ATL #29 WR defense (38.5 fpa) is the decisive edge.
Near pick-em script: CHI slight favorite, both teams run-heavy at 48% and 45% pass.
Caleb Williams questionable (hamstring) and Penix questionable (rib) can flip it.

Key matchups

Burden vs ATL pass D: #29, 38.5 fpa, SMASH at $5400.
London vs CHI pass D: #20, 34.0 fpa, FAVORABLE ceiling 31.0.
Bijan vs CHI run D: #5, 19.4 fpa, TOUGH but 23.5 projection.
Pitts vs CHI TE D: #5, 9.5 fpa, TOUGH, fade at 7.1.
Williams vs ATL QB D: #23, 19.4 fpa, FAVORABLE if he plays.
Swift vs ATL RB D: #13, 20.9 fpa, NEUTRAL spot.

CHI skill positions vs ATL defense

#23/32

19.3 fpa

Good

#22/32

23.3 fpa

Good

#29/32

38.1 fpa

Elite

#18/32

13.4 fpa

Average

ATL skill positions vs CHI defense

#24/32

19.4 fpa

Good

#3/32

18.2 fpa

Avoid

#22/32

35.0 fpa

Good

#8/32

11.3 fpa

Avoid

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

CHI runs 73 plays per game (#1); ATL slower at 62 (#16), both pass under 48%.
Tight game, favorite CHI leans run; ATL leans Bijan with Penix limited.
Points from implied totals 26.5 and 25.0; soft WR matchups boost both passing games.

Projected points (market implied)

CHI33.0

ATL25.5

Offense profile

CHIRank of 32ATL

25.0 #12 Pts / G 23.7 #16

249.7 #12 Pass yds / G 211.5 #23

160.7 #1 Rush yds / G 149.5 #4

73.2 #1 Plays / G 60.0 #24

49% Pass rate 49%

0.8 Pass TD / G 1.2

2.2 Rush TD / G 1.3

2.5 Sacks taken / G 2.7

0.8 INT thrown / G 1.2

Defense profile

CHIRank of 32ATL

19.8 #6 Pts allowed / G 25.5 #23

228.0 #15 Pass yds allowed 271.3 #29

90.5 #7 Rush yds allowed 83.2 #4

2.8 Sacks / G 2.5

0.5 INT / G 0.2

1.5 Pass TD allowed 1.7

0.8 Rush TD allowed 1.0

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 6 games per team.

Weather

Indoor: no weather factor. Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a covered venue.

Indoor: no weather factor.

Props

Luther Burden III - receiving yards 50.5 - over - #29 WR matchup, 12.9 projection.
Drake London - receiving yards 92.5 - lean over - #20 pass D, ceiling 31.0.
Bijan Robinson - rushing yards 93.5 - under - CHI #5 run D, 19.4 fpa.
Michael Penix Jr. - passing yards 239.5 - lean over - 239.5 projection, NEUTRAL matchup.

All CHI and ATL props with AI grades

Injuries

CHI 8 listed

Out Case Keenum QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Kyle Monangai RB Unknown Severe
Out Dallis Flowers CB Unknown Minimal
Out Jayden Loving DT Unknown Minimal
Out Jordan McFadden G Unknown Minimal
Out Keyshaun Elliott LB Unknown Minimal
Out Ruben Hyppolite II LB Shoulder Minimal
Out T.J. Edwards LB Unknown Minimal

ATL 8 listed

Out Cooper Rush QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Jack Strand QB Unknown Severe
Out A.J. Terrell CB Groin Minimal
Out Anterio Thompson DT Undisclosed Minimal
Out C.J. Henderson CB Unknown Minimal
Out Christian Harris LB Unknown Minimal
Out Ethan Onianwa OT Unknown Minimal
Out Malcolm DeWalt IV CB Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

CHI lost 7-31 at GB last out; ATL fell 23-30 to BAL.
H2H: CHI won 37-17 in 2023, ATL won 27-24 in 2022.
Spread moved ATL 3.0 to CHI -1.5, total up 49.5 to 51.5.

CHI last 5

W 31-23 @ ATLL 7-31 @ GBW 23-12 vs NYJW 27-7 vs PHIL 3-9 vs MIN

ATL last 5

L 23-31 vs CHIL 23-30 vs BALW 45-24 @ NOW 35-14 @ GBL 3-34 vs CAR

Head-to-head

Oct 18, 2026 CHI 31 at ATL 23
Dec 31, 2023 ATL 17 at CHI 37
Nov 20, 2022 CHI 24 at ATL 27

Watch list

Caleb Williams (hamstring) status - questionable QB1 swings the CHI side and stack.
Michael Penix Jr. (rib) status - questionable QB1 affects ATL passing props.
A.J. Terrell out and Henderson questionable - boosts Burden and London.
Spread holding CHI -1.5 - confirm no reverse move before kickoff.