Archived Week 6 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · FOX · MetLife Stadium, New York
Final
New Orleans Saints
1-4 · 2-4 last season
Final34
At
NO -10.5 Total 58.5 NYG covered · Over
New York Giants
3-1 · 3-2 last season
Final27
Line movement open Oct 13
NYG spread
+1.5 +10.5
9.0
Total
45.5 58.5
13.0
The angle, before kickoff
Pass · 3/10
NO -1.5 is a coinflip, but Skattebo into the NFL's #31 run defense is the game's one clean edge.
SideBET HOME +1.5pick'em at home with Skattebo into the #31 run defense.
TotalPASSprojected total 45.5 matches the line exactly.
Best bet
Cam Skattebo over 49.5 rushing yards against the #31-ranked, 149-yard-allowing New Orleans run defense.
Quick hits
- Market: NO -1.5, total 45.5, implied NO 23.5 / NYG 22.0, no line move.
- Balanced-to-modest scoring: both offenses middling (#16 and #22 points), projected total 45.5.
- Decisive edge: Cam Skattebo vs NO run defense ranked #31, allowing 149 rush yards per game.
- Script: near pick'em, NYG run-heavy at 53% pass, NO pass-heavy at 64%.
- Swing factor: Kamara (back) and Olave (illness) both questionable for New Orleans.
Key matchups
- Cam Skattebo vs NO RB defense: #31 of 32, 27.5 fpa, SMASH spot.
- Tyler Shough vs NYG QB defense: #27 of 32, 20.3 fpa, SMASH matchup, proj 19.2.
- Isaiah Likely vs NO TE defense: #22 of 32, 15.2 fpa, FAVORABLE at $4800.
- Alvin Kamara vs NYG RB defense: #21 of 32, favorable but questionable (back).
- Malik Nabers vs NO WR defense: #6 of 32, 28.0 fpa, TOUGH despite soft reputation.
- Chris Olave vs NYG WR defense: #18 of 32, neutral, questionable (illness).
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO |
Tyler Shough | QB | 19.7 | $5,600 | NYG #27 of 32 | 20.5 | Smash |
| NO |
Chris Olave | WR | 18.2 | $7,600 | NYG #14 of 32 | 31.4 | Neutral |
| NO |
Juwan Johnson | TE | 10.7 | $4,500 | NYG #9 of 32 | 11.4 | Neutral |
| NO |
Kendre Miller | RB | 8.9 | $4,600 | NYG #21 of 32 | 23.2 | Favorable |
| NYG |
Jameis Winston | QB | 16.5 | $5,100 | NO #13 of 32 | 17.0 | Neutral |
| NYG |
Malik Nabers | WR | 15.6 | $6,500 | NO #9 of 32 | 29.8 | Neutral |
| NYG |
Isaiah Likely | TE | 12.8 | $4,800 | NO #27 of 32 | 16.7 | Smash |
| NYG |
Cam Skattebo | RB | 10.6 | $5,800 | NO #32 of 32 | 27.5 | Smash |
NO skill positions vs NYG defenseQB
#27/32
20.5 fpa
RB
#21/32
23.2 fpa
WR
#14/32
31.4 fpa
TE
#9/32
11.4 fpa
NYG skill positions vs NO defenseQB
#13/32
17.0 fpa
RB
#32/32
27.5 fpa
WR
#9/32
29.8 fpa
TE
#27/32
16.7 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- Pace up: NO 67 plays (#5) at 64% pass, NYG 65 plays (#7) at 53% pass.
- Near pick'em means two-way game; NYG leans ground, NO leans air.
- Points balanced at 23.5 and 22.0; NO allows 2.0 rush TD, NYG 1.8 pass TD.
Projected points (market implied)
NO34.5
NYG24.0
Offense profile
NORank of 32NYG
25.3
#10
Pts / G
22.7
#20
241.3
#17
Pass yds / G
242.0
#16
97.3
#21
Rush yds / G
104.8
#19
67.0
#5
Plays / G
66.3
#8
60%
Pass rate
56%
2.0
Pass TD / G
1.8
1.0
Rush TD / G
0.3
2.2
Sacks taken / G
3.0
0.8
INT thrown / G
1.0
Defense profile
NORank of 32NYG
29.7
#31
Pts allowed / G
23.3
#19
256.2
#26
Pass yds allowed
198.7
#4
138.0
#30
Rush yds allowed
135.5
#29
2.5
Sacks / G
1.3
0.7
INT / G
1.0
1.7
Pass TD allowed
2.0
1.8
Rush TD allowed
1.0
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 6 games per team.
Weather
At kickoff · 2026-10-18 13:00 local
No weather factor
Conditions
Sunny
Temp
57°F
feels 49°
Wind
6 mph NNE
gusts 7 mph
Rain
0%
0.00 in
Humidity
27%
- Sunny, 57F, wind 5 mph: no weather factor
WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface
- Sunny, 56F, wind 7 mph, 0% rain: no weather factor.
- Passing, kicking and totals unaffected.
DFS
- Stack: Shough plus Olave or Vele against the #27 QB defense.
- Value: Likely $4800 at 3.05x, favorable #22 TE spot.
- Fade: Nabers $6500 into NO's #6 WR defense.
- Contrarian: Skattebo as the ceiling play versus the #31 run defense.
NO projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Tyler Shough | 19.7 | 11.2 / 26.3 | $5,600 | 3.51x | $12,400 | #27 |
| WR | Chris Olave | 18.2 | 8.7 / 29.0 | $7,600 | 2.39x | $11,800 | #14 |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | 10.7 | 4.4 / 18.2 | $4,500 | 2.37x | $7,000 | #9 |
| WR | Devaughn Vele | 10.6 | 5.0 / 19.1 | $5,100 | 2.08x | $8,400 | #14 |
| RB | Kendre Miller | 8.9 | 3.8 / 15.3 | $4,600 | 1.93x | $9,200 | #21 |
| RB | Alvin Kamara | 8.3 | 4.2 / 15.3 | $5,100 | 1.63x | $8,200 | #21 |
| RB | CJ Donaldson | 4.6 | 1.5 / 10.1 | $4,100 | 1.13x | $4,000 | #21 |
NYG projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jameis Winston | 16.5 | 9.0 / 23.1 | $5,100 | 3.24x | $10,600 | #13 |
| WR | Malik Nabers | 15.6 | 7.1 / 26.5 | $6,500 | 2.40x | $11,200 | #9 |
| TE | Isaiah Likely | 12.8 | 6.2 / 22.9 | $4,800 | 2.67x | $7,800 | #27 |
| RB | Cam Skattebo | 10.6 | 5.3 / 17.4 | $5,800 | 1.82x | $10,200 | #32 |
| RB | Najee Harris | 7.2 | 2.8 / 13.5 | $4,500 | 1.59x | $4,400 | #32 |
| WR | Malachi Fields | 5.7 | 1.3 / 12.2 | $4,100 | 1.39x | $6,400 | #9 |
| WR | Darnell Mooney questionable | 5.2 | 1.3 / 11.8 | $3,700 | 1.41x | $5,600 | #9 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Cam Skattebo - rushing yards 49.5 - over - #31 run defense, 27.5 fpa.
- Tyler Shough - passing yards 235.5 - over - #27 QB matchup, proj 19.2.
- Isaiah Likely - receiving yards 53.5 - over - #22 TE spot, proj 14.6.
- Malik Nabers - receiving yards 72.5 - under - #6 WR defense, TOUGH.
Injuries
NO 8 listed- Out Zach Wilson QB Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Anfernee Jennings OLB Unknown Minimal
- Out David Long DB Undisclosed Minimal
- Out Dillon Radunz G Unknown Minimal
- Out John Ridgeway DT Unknown Minimal
- Out Kaden Elliss ILB Unknown Minimal
- Out Michael Reid CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Nathan Shepherd DT Illness Minimal
NYG 8 listed- Out Jake Haener QB Unknown Severe
- Out Theo Johnson TE Unknown Severe
- Out CJ Okoye DT Unknown Minimal
- Out Colton Hood CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Jarrick Bernard-Converse CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Jermaine Eluemunor OT Unknown Minimal
- Out Thaddeus Dixon CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Tyler Nubin FS Unknown Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- Form: NO 1-4 and lost 4 of 5; NYG 3-1 in last four decisions.
- H2H: NO won last meeting 26-14 and 3 of last 3 overall.
- Line: spread flat at 1.5 and total flat at 45.5 since the open.
NO last 5W 34-27 @ NYGL 13-23 vs MINL 24-45 vs ATLL 27-35 vs LVW 24-17 @ BAL
NYG last 5L 27-34 vs NOL 27-27 @ WASW 36-24 vs ARIW 12-7 vs TENL 6-28 @ LA
Head-to-head
- Oct 18, 2026 NO 34 at NYG 27
- Oct 5, 2025 NYG 14 at NO 26
- Dec 8, 2024 NO 14 at NYG 11
Watch list
- Kamara (back) status: if out, Miller inherits the favorable #21 RB matchup.
- Olave (illness) status: inactive boosts Vele and shifts targets to Johnson.
- Giants OT Andrew Thomas questionable: affects Skattebo's run lanes and Winston's protection.
Week 6 slate
All 14 games this week.
SEA @ DEN
Thu 8:15 PM ET
DEN -1.5
O/U 39.5
Final
HOU @ JAX
Sun 9:30 AM ET
HOU -3.5
O/U 60.5
Final
BAL @ CLE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -7.5
O/U 26.5
Final
CAR @ PHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CAR -4.5
O/U 39.5
Final
CHI @ ATL
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -7.5
O/U 58.5
Final
NO @ NYG
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NO -10.5
O/U 58.5
Final
NYJ @ NE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NE -7.5
O/U 43.5
Final
PIT @ TB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TB -2.5
O/U 35.5
Final
TEN @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TEN -3.5
O/U 43.5
Final
ARI @ LA
Sun 4:05 PM ET
LA -1.5
O/U 35.5
Final
BUF @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
BUF -3.5
O/U 51.5
Final
LAC @ KC
Sun 4:25 PM ET
KC -12.5
O/U 32.5
Final
DAL @ GB
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DAL -1.5
O/U 53.5
Final
WAS @ SF
Mon 8:15 PM ET
SF -7.5
O/U 51.5
Kicked off