Archived Week 6 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · Gillette Stadium, New England Division Final

New York Jets

2-3 · 2-4 last season

Final19

At NE -7.5 Total 43.5 NYJ covered · Over

New England Patriots

3-2 · 4-2 last season

Final26

Line movement open Oct 13 NE spread -7.5 -7.5 no move Total 43.5 43.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 4/10

Rhamondre Stevenson smashes NYJ's 32nd-ranked run defense in a 43.5-total divisional spot.

SidePASSNE -7.5 matches the projected 7.5 margin exactly, no edge.

TotalPASSprojection 43.5 sits on the line with no gap.

Best bet

Rhamondre Stevenson over 54.5 rushing yards against the NFL's 32nd-ranked run defense.

Quick hits

NE -7.5, total 43.5; implied NE 25.5, NYJ 18.0.
Balanced-to-moderate scoring; NE offense #20 meets NYJ defense #7.
Decisive edge: Stevenson vs NYJ RB defense ranked 32 of 32, softest in league.
NE favored and run-leaning; NYJ #28 offense likely chases from behind.
A.J. Brown (WR1) questionable and 17 mph wind can cap the passing ceilings.

Key matchups

Rhamondre Stevenson vs NYJ RB defense #32 (28.2 fpa): SMASH, league-softest run matchup.
Garrett Wilson vs NE WR defense #13 (30.9 fpa): neutral, proj 16.2 is his usage floor.
Geno Smith vs NE QB defense #6 (15.4 fpa): tough, avoid as a build-around.
Braelon Allen vs NE RB defense #14 (21.1 fpa): neutral, 66.5 rush yards line.
Drake Maye vs NYJ QB defense #14 (16.8 fpa): neutral, top NE projection at 18.6.
A.J. Brown vs NYJ WR defense #9 (30.0 fpa): neutral, questionable with just 9.8 proj.

NYJ skill positions vs NE defense

#7/32

15.7 fpa

Avoid

#13/32

20.8 fpa

Bad

#15/32

32.0 fpa

Average

#15/32

12.5 fpa

Average

NE skill positions vs NYJ defense

#17/32

17.8 fpa

Average

#31/32

27.2 fpa

Elite

#13/32

31.3 fpa

Bad

#16/32

12.6 fpa

Average

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

NE 64 plays (#11), 51% pass; NYJ slower at 59 plays (#26), 53% pass.
Favorite NE leads and leans run into the 32nd-ranked NYJ front; NYJ passes trailing.
Points skew NE 25.5 vs NYJ 18.0; red-zone edge NE at 1.6 pass TD per game.

Projected points (market implied)

NYJ18.0

NE25.5

Offense profile

NYJRank of 32NE

18.7 #27 Pts / G 22.7 #19

223.0 #20 Pass yds / G 251.5 #11

94.5 #23 Rush yds / G 130.7 #7

59.0 #27 Plays / G 64.5 #9

53% Pass rate 50%

1.2 Pass TD / G 1.8

0.7 Rush TD / G 0.7

3.2 Sacks taken / G 1.8

0.2 INT thrown / G 1.2

Defense profile

NYJRank of 32NE

20.3 #8 Pts allowed / G 18.8 #5

202.0 #5 Pass yds allowed 227.5 #12

123.0 #24 Rush yds allowed 91.8 #8

2.8 Sacks / G 2.3

0.2 INT / G 0.7

1.5 Pass TD allowed 1.2

0.7 Rush TD allowed 0.8

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 6 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-10-18 12:00 local Moderate impact

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

84°F

feels 91°

Wind

17 mph E

gusts 26 mph

Rain

19%

0.00 in

Humidity

74%

Wind 17 mph: field goals past 45 and deep shots get harder

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

mph E wind, gusts 18: moderate hit to deep shots and field goals past 45.
F and 18% rain are non-factors; passing yards and kicking shade slightly down.
Leans the total toward the under and favors short-area, run-game usage.

Props

Rhamondre Stevenson - rushing yards 54.5 (o-113) - lean over - NYJ RB defense ranked 32.
Rhamondre Stevenson - receptions 2.5 (o-152) - lean over - checkdown role vs soft front.
Drake Maye - rushing yards 27.5 (o-113) - lean over - mobile QB, 18.6 projection.
Garrett Wilson - receptions 6.5 (o+102) - lean over - 16.2 proj anchors NYJ targets.

All NYJ and NE props with AI grades

Injuries

NYJ 8 listed

Out Adonai Mitchell WR Unknown Severe
Out Breece Hall RB Unknown Severe
Out Dylan Parham G Unknown Minimal
Out Jack Heflin DT Unknown Minimal
Out Joseph Ossai DE Unknown Minimal
Out Nahshon Wright DB Unknown Minimal
Out Tre Brown CB Undisclosed Minimal
Quest. Kenyon Sadiq TE Concussion Minimal

NE 8 listed

Out Behren Morton QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Myles Montgomery RB Unknown Severe
Out Romeo Doubs WR Shoulder Severe
Out Tanner Arkin TE Unknown Severe
Out Carlton Davis CB Unknown Minimal
Out Channing Canada CB Hamstring Minimal
Out Dametrious Crownover T Unknown Minimal
Out Harold Landry III OLB Undisclosed Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

NE 4-1 in last 5 including 45-17 over LV; NYJ 2-3, won 17-12 over CLE.
H2H NE won last two: 42-10 and 27-14 at home-side control.
Line flat since open: spread -7.5 unchanged, total 43.5 unchanged, no sharp move.

NYJ last 5

L 19-26 @ NEW 17-12 vs CLEL 12-23 @ CHIL 24-31 @ DETL 17-20 vs GB

NE last 5

W 26-19 vs NYJW 45-17 vs LVW 29-26 @ BUFL 6-35 @ JAXW 20-3 vs PIT

Head-to-head

Oct 18, 2026 NYJ 19 at NE 26
Dec 28, 2025 NE 42 at NYJ 10
Nov 13, 2025 NYJ 14 at NE 27

Watch list

A.J. Brown (WR1, finger... questionable): his status swings NE passing and Doubs/Chism value.
Breece Hall (RB, questionable): active status reshapes NYJ backfield around Braelon Allen.
TreVeyon Henderson (RB, questionable): if out, Stevenson volume climbs further.
Wind readings near kickoff: above 17 mph pushes the total further under.