Archived Week 3 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET · FOX · Levi's Stadium, San Francisco Division Final

Arizona Cardinals

1-1 · 2-14 last season

Final30

At SF -7.5 Total 47.5 ARI covered · Over

San Francisco 49ers

2-0 · 13-6 last season

Final36

Line movement open Sep 22 SF spread -8.5 -7.5 1.0 Total 47.5 47.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 4/10

SF -8.5 with Kittle a smash vs Arizona's 27th-ranked TE defense allowing 16.3 fpa.

SideBET HOME -8.5SF projected margin 8.5 with ARI defense #32 in points allowed.

TotalPASSprojected total near 47.5 with wind trimming the edge.

Best bet

Kittle over 4.5 receptions against Arizona's 27th-ranked TE defense allowing 16.3 fpa.

Quick hits

Market SF -8.5, total 47.5, implied SF 28.0 and ARI 19.5.
Balanced-to-high: SF offense #9 meets ARI defense #32 in points allowed.
Kittle vs ARI #27 vs TE (16.3 fpa) is the game's clearest edge.
SF leads and stays run-heavy at 53% pass; ARI trails and throws at 64%.
Mike Evans questionable (hip) shifts targets to Deebo and Kittle.

Key matchups

George Kittle vs ARI #27 vs TE: 16.3 fpa, smash, proj 11.3.
Mike Evans vs ARI #24 vs WR: 34.3 fpa, favorable if active, questionable.
Christian McCaffrey vs ARI #22 vs RB: 23.6 fpa, favorable, proj 21.0.
Brock Purdy vs ARI #22 vs QB: 18.6 fpa, favorable, proj 20.8.
Trey McBride vs SF #16 vs TE: 12.6 fpa, neutral, proj 16.3.
Jacoby Brissett vs SF #8 vs QB: 15.3 fpa, avoid, toughest spot.

ARI skill positions vs SF defense

#13/32

16.8 fpa

Bad

#21/32

23.3 fpa

Good

#15/32

30.6 fpa

Average

#21/32

14.1 fpa

Good

SF skill positions vs ARI defense

#27/32

20.4 fpa

Elite

#22/32

23.6 fpa

Good

#26/32

35.5 fpa

Elite

#29/32

17.7 fpa

Elite

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

SF runs 53% pass on 62 plays; ARI pass-heavy 64% on 64 plays.
SF leads and grinds; ARI trails and airs it out chasing points.
Points from SF at 28.0 implied; ARI red zone thin at 20.4 ppg (#23).

Projected points (market implied)

ARI20.0

SF27.5

Offense profile

ARIRank of 32SF

21.0 #22 Pts / G 26.6 #7

267.1 #4 Pass yds / G 247.6 #7

89.9 #31 Rush yds / G 112.6 #19

64.8 #4 Plays / G 61.1 #18

65% Pass rate 53%

1.7 Pass TD / G 2.1

0.6 Rush TD / G 1.0

3.2 Sacks taken / G 1.3

0.6 INT thrown / G 0.9

Defense profile

ARIRank of 32SF

30.9 #32 Pts allowed / G 22.7 #16

237.9 #19 Pass yds allowed 239.1 #20

134.8 #28 Rush yds allowed 113.4 #14

1.6 Sacks / G 1.3

0.6 INT / G 0.4

2.1 Pass TD allowed 1.6

1.2 Rush TD allowed 0.9

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-28, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-27 13:00 local Moderate impact

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

60°F

feels 52°

Wind

15 mph W

gusts 17 mph

Rain

0.00 in

Humidity

78%

Wind 15 mph: field goals past 45 and deep shots get harder

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Wind 15 mph W, gusts 17: field goals past 45 and deep shots harder, moderate impact.
Slight trim to kicking and vertical passing; leans checkdowns and run game.

DFS

Stack Purdy with Kittle into ARI's #27 TE and #22 QB spots.
Value: Deebo Samuel $5300 (2.16x), rises if Evans sits questionable.
Fade Marvin Harrison Jr. $4700 (1.44x) into SF #14 WR defense.
Contrarian: McBride $6700 ceiling 27.1, ARI trailing forces volume.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

George Kittle - receptions 4.5 (o+126) - lean over - vs #27 TE defense, 16.3 fpa.
Trey McBride - receiving yards 67.5 (o-113) - lean over - proj 16.3, pass-heavy script.
Christian McCaffrey - rushing yards 57.5 (o-109) - lean over - vs ARI #29 run defense.
Brock Purdy - passing tds 1.5 (o-150) - lean over - vs ARI #22 QB, favorable.

All ARI and SF props with AI grades

Injuries

ARI 8 listed

Out Carson Beck QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Jameson Geers TE Unknown Severe
Out Reggie Virgil WR Unknown Severe
Out Trey Benson RB Knee Severe
Out Andrew Billings DT Unknown Minimal
Out Chase Bisontis G Unknown Minimal
Out Dadrion Taylor-Demerson FS Unknown Minimal
Out Josh Fryar OT Unknown Minimal

SF 8 listed

Out Kurtis Rourke QB Unknown Severe
Out Enrique Cruz Jr. OT Unknown Minimal
Out Ephesians Prysock CB Unknown Minimal
Out James Thompson Jr. DT Unknown Minimal
Out Mykel Williams DE Unknown Minimal
Out Nick Bosa DE Unknown Minimal
Out Nick Zakelj G Undisclosed Minimal
Out Romello Height DE Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

SF 2-0 and coming off 35-13; ARI 1-1 off a 7-31 loss to SEA.
H2H: SF won 41-22 last meeting, prior two decided by one point.
Line flat: spread -8.5 and total 47.5 unmoved since open.

ARI last 5

L 30-36 @ SFL 7-31 vs SEAW 26-14 @ LACL 20-37 @ LAL 14-37 @ CIN

SF last 5

W 36-30 vs ARIW 35-13 vs MIAW 27-7 @ LAL 6-41 @ SEAW 23-19 @ PHI

Head-to-head

Sep 27, 2026 ARI 30 at SF 36
Nov 16, 2025 SF 41 at ARI 22
Sep 21, 2025 ARI 15 at SF 16

Watch list

Mike Evans hip: if out, Deebo and Kittle target share climbs.
ARI secondary Williams and Melton questionable: softer coverage boosts SF passing.
Wind gusts to 17: monitor for deeper impact on kicking and totals.

Week 3 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

ATL @ GB