Archived Week 3 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh Division Final

Cincinnati Bengals

2-0 · 6-11 last season

Final27

At CIN -3.5 Total 42.5 PIT covered · Over

Pittsburgh Steelers

1-1 · 10-8 last season

Final30

Line movement open Sep 22 PIT spread +3.5 +3.5 no move Total 42.5 42.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 4/10

Pat Freiermuth faces the NFL's worst TE defense: CIN ranks 32nd, a smash spot.

SideBET HOME +3.5home division dog against CIN's 28th-ranked, 31st-run defense.

TotalBET OVER 42.5CIN allows 27.1 points, and last three H2H averaged 64 combined.

Best bet

Pat Freiermuth over 36.5 receiving yards against Cincinnati's 32nd-ranked TE defense.

Quick hits

CIN -3.5, total 42.5, implied CIN 23.0 and PIT 19.5.
Balanced-to-modest scoring, though CIN's defense ranks 28th in points and 31st versus the run.
Freiermuth vs CIN's 32nd-ranked TE defense is the decisive edge.
CIN leads and throws (62%); PIT trails, leans on Warren and short passing.
Warren questionable (shoulder) reshapes PIT's run-heavy plan.

Key matchups

Pat Freiermuth vs CIN #32 TE defense: 20.7 fpa, elite, smash.
Chase Brown vs PIT #21 RB defense: 23.1 fpa, favorable rushing spot.
Jaylen Warren vs CIN #25 RB defense: 24.8 fpa, favorable if he clears.
Mike Gesicki vs PIT #20 TE defense: 13.0 fpa, sneaky cheap value.
Ja'Marr Chase vs PIT #6 WR defense: 28.4 fpa, tough despite ceiling.
DK Metcalf vs CIN #2 WR defense: 24.4 fpa, avoid this spot.

CIN skill positions vs PIT defense

#18/32

17.4 fpa

Average

#16/32

21.4 fpa

Average

#19/32

31.8 fpa

Good

#16/32

13.6 fpa

Average

PIT skill positions vs CIN defense

#24/32

19.0 fpa

Good

#25/32

24.6 fpa

Elite

#4/32

27.0 fpa

Avoid

#31/32

20.0 fpa

Elite

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

CIN runs 63 plays at 62% pass; PIT slower at 60 plays, 59% pass.
CIN favored by 3.5, dictates through the air; PIT chases, leaning run and Freiermuth.
Points route through CIN's 23.0 implied total and PIT's soft run and TE defense.

Projected points (market implied)

CIN23.0

PIT19.5

Offense profile

CINRank of 32PIT

25.6 #9 Pts / G 21.3 #21

259.8 #5 Pass yds / G 215.9 #20

101.1 #27 Rush yds / G 106.5 #25

62.9 #13 Plays / G 59.6 #25

63% Pass rate 59%

2.2 Pass TD / G 1.3

0.6 Rush TD / G 0.8

1.9 Sacks taken / G 2.0

0.8 INT thrown / G 0.5

Defense profile

CINRank of 32PIT

27.3 #28 Pts allowed / G 22.2 #12

251.5 #26 Pass yds allowed 252.3 #28

142.9 #32 Rush yds allowed 111.5 #13

2.3 Sacks / G 2.8

0.6 INT / G 0.9

1.8 Pass TD allowed 1.7

1.0 Rush TD allowed 0.4

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-28, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-27 13:00 local Low impact

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

66°F

feels 59°

Wind

11 mph NNW

gusts 19 mph

Rain

11%

0.00 in

Humidity

48%

Wind 11 mph: minor, mostly on long kicks

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Overcast, 66F, wind 11 mph NNW gusting 19, rain 11%.
Wind is minor, mostly long field goals; passing and totals largely unaffected.

DFS

Stack Rodgers ($5000) with Freiermuth ($3800) into CIN's 32nd TE defense.
Value: Jaylen Warren $5700 at 3.22x versus #25 RB defense if active.
Fade: DK Metcalf $5400 into CIN's #2 WR defense.
Contrarian: Chase Brown $6600 exploiting PIT's #21 run defense against a chalk field.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Pat Freiermuth - rec yards 36.5 (o-114) - over - CIN #32 vs TE.
Chase Brown - rush yards 63.5 (o-113) - over - PIT #21 run defense.
Ja'Marr Chase - rec yards 76.5 (o-111) - under - PIT #6 WR defense, tough.
Jaylen Warren - rush yards 56.5 (o-110) - over if active - CIN #25 RB defense.

All CIN and PIT props with AI grades

Injuries

CIN 8 listed

Out Jack Endries TE Unknown Severe
Out B.J. Hill DT Achilles Minimal
Out Connor Lew C Unknown Minimal
Out Josh Newton CB Unknown Minimal
Out Landon Robinson DT Unknown Minimal
Out Myles Hinton OT Unknown Minimal
Quest. Colbie Young WR Unknown Minimal
Quest. Jalen Davis CB Hamstring Minimal

PIT 8 listed

Out Cole Burgess WR Unknown Severe
Out Drew Allar QB Unknown Severe
Out Eli Heidenreich RB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Rico Dowdle RB Unknown Severe
Out Will Howard QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Donte Kent CB Undisclosed Minimal
Out Gabriel Rubio DT Unknown Minimal
Out Jack Driscoll OT Undisclosed Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

CIN 2-0, coming off W 20-6 at HOU; PIT stumbled 3-20 at NE.
H2H high-scoring recently: 46, 64 and 82 combined points last three meetings.
Line static since open: spread 3.5, total 42.5, no movement.

CIN last 5

L 27-30 @ PITW 20-6 @ HOUW 33-27 vs TBL 18-20 vs CLEW 37-14 vs ARI

PIT last 5

W 30-27 vs CINL 3-20 @ NEW 20-13 vs ATLL 6-30 vs HOUW 26-24 vs BAL

Head-to-head

Sep 27, 2026 CIN 27 at PIT 30
Nov 16, 2025 CIN 12 at PIT 34
Oct 16, 2025 PIT 31 at CIN 33

Watch list

Jaylen Warren (shoulder) status - RB1 questionable swings PIT's run game and Freiermuth targets.
Michael Pittman (foot) and Rico Dowdle (toe) - questionable, alter PIT's target and backfield split.
Gusts to 19 mph - monitor for field-goal and deep-ball impact near kickoff.

Week 3 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

ATL @ GB