Archived Week 3 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Final

Kansas City Chiefs

2-0 · 8-9 last season

Final24

At KC -10.5 Total 45.5 KC covered · Under

Miami Dolphins

0-2 · 7-10 last season

Final10

Line movement open Sep 22 MIA spread +10.5 +10.5 no move Total 45.5 45.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 5/10

KC -10.5 with three SMASH spots: Miami ranks 31st vs RB, 26th vs TE, 26th vs QB.

SideBET AWAY -10.5KC holds three SMASH spots while Willis faces KC #4 QB defense.

TotalPASSprojected total 45.5 sits exactly on the line.

Best bet

Kenneth Walker III over 84.5 rushing yards against Miami's 31st-ranked run defense.

Quick hits

KC -10.5, total 45.5, implied KC 28.0 / MIA 17.5.
Balanced-to-moderate scoring; KC offense meets a leaky Miami front, Willis capped versus KC #4 QB defense.
Kenneth Walker vs Miami #31 RB defense (27.9 fpa) is the decisive edge.
KC leads and controls; run-leaning script with big favorite building a lead.
Chris Jones (Q) or a Miami cover-up could compress or blow open the margin.

Key matchups

Kenneth Walker vs MIA #31 RB (27.9 fpa): softest spot on the board, SMASH.
Travis Kelce vs MIA #26 TE (15.5 fpa): $4500 smash at 2.70x value.
Patrick Mahomes vs MIA #26 QB (20.3 fpa): favorable, SMASH.
Malik Willis vs KC #4 QB (14.0 fpa): tough, ceiling capped at 21.4.
Malik Washington vs KC #4 WR (26.0 fpa): tough, stingiest coverage.
Rashee Rice vs MIA #9 WR (28.8 fpa): stingy rank, neutral despite volume.

KC skill positions vs MIA defense

#26/32

19.8 fpa

Elite

#30/32

27.4 fpa

Elite

#8/32

28.4 fpa

Avoid

#26/32

16.3 fpa

Elite

MIA skill positions vs KC defense

#2/32

13.7 fpa

Avoid

#6/32

19.3 fpa

Avoid

#3/32

26.1 fpa

Avoid

#14/32

12.5 fpa

Bad

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

KC 64 plays (#4), 57% pass; Miami 56 plays (#31), just 50% pass.
KC leads early and leans run; Miami forced to chase behind Willis.
Points skew KC (28.0 implied); Miami's 17.5 fits its #25 offense and 1.2 pass TD rate.

Projected points (market implied)

KC28.0

MIA17.5

Offense profile

KCRank of 32MIA

22.9 #14 Pts / G 19.2 #28

242.6 #11 Pass yds / G 196.7 #25

114.6 #17 Rush yds / G 121.8 #11

63.1 #11 Plays / G 56.8 #31

56% Pass rate 51%

1.6 Pass TD / G 1.1

0.9 Rush TD / G 0.9

2.6 Sacks taken / G 2.3

0.8 INT thrown / G 0.9

Defense profile

KCRank of 32MIA

18.9 #6 Pts allowed / G 24.3 #22

203.5 #6 Pass yds allowed 229.9 #17

103.2 #7 Rush yds allowed 125.2 #21

1.9 Sacks / G 1.9

0.6 INT / G 0.7

1.0 Pass TD allowed 1.8

0.8 Rush TD allowed 1.1

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-28, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-27 13:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Partly Cloudy

Temp

86°F

feels 87°

Wind

9 mph E

gusts 17 mph

Rain

0.00 in

Humidity

51%

Partly Cloudy, 85F, wind 8 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

F, wind 8 mph, rain 4%: no weather factor.
Passing, kicking and totals unaffected.

DFS

Stack Mahomes with Kelce ($4500) against Miami #26 TE and #26 QB.
Value Xavier Worthy $4400 at 2.46x if Rice draws top coverage.
Fade Malik Washington vs KC #4 WR defense, tough draw.
Contrarian: Kenneth Walker $7400 is chalk but the #31 RB matchup justifies it.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Kenneth Walker - rushing yards 84.5 - over - #31 RB defense, proj 20.0 fantasy.
Travis Kelce - receiving yards 51.5 - over - #26 TE matchup, proj 12.1.
Patrick Mahomes - passing yards 233.5 - over - #26 QB defense, proj 20.0.
Malik Willis - passing yards 179.5 - under - KC #4 QB defense, ceiling 21.4.

All KC and MIA props with AI grades

Injuries

KC 8 listed

Out Garrett Nussmeier QB Unknown Severe
Out Jared Wiley TE Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Jeff Caldwell WR Knee Severe
Out Chamarri Conner FS Knee Minimal
Out Chukwuebuka Godrick OT Unknown Minimal
Out Diego Pounds OT Unknown Minimal
Out Jack Pyburn OLB Unknown Minimal
Out Josh Simmons OT Unknown Minimal

MIA 8 listed

Out Brady Cook QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Caleb Douglas WR Unknown Severe
Out Jaylen Wright RB Foot Severe
Quest. Devon Achane RB Unknown Moderate
Out DJ Campbell G Unknown Minimal
Out Marcellas Dial CB Unknown Minimal
Out Rene Konga DT Unknown Minimal
Out Robert Beal Jr. DE Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

KC 2-0, won last two 33-30 and 31-10; Miami 0-2, blown out 13-35 and 13-27.
H2H: KC won last two 26-7 and 21-14.
Line static: spread 10.5 and total 45.5 unmoved since open.

KC last 5

W 24-10 @ MIAW 33-30 vs INDW 31-10 vs DENL 12-14 @ LVL 13-20 vs DEN

MIA last 5

L 10-24 vs KCL 13-35 @ SFL 13-27 @ LVL 10-38 @ NEW 20-17 vs TB

Head-to-head

Sep 27, 2026 KC 24 at MIA 10
Jan 13, 2024 MIA 7 at KC 26
Nov 5, 2023 MIA 14 at KC 21

Watch list

Chris Jones (Q, DT): affects KC pass rush and Miami's script.
Jaylen Wright (Q, RB): clears Achane's workload if out.
Chris Bell (Q, WR): thins Miami's depth further.
Spread at 10.5: any move signals sharp lean on the number.

Week 3 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

ATL @ GB