Archived Week 3 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · FOX · Northwest Stadium, Landover
Final
Seattle Seahawks
2-0 · 16-3 last season
Final31
At
SEA -8.5 Total 40.5 WAS covered · Over
Washington Commanders
0-2 · 4-13 last season
Final33
Line movement open Sep 22
WAS spread
+6.5 +8.5
2.0
Total
40.5 40.5
no move
The angle, before kickoff
Lean · 5/10
Seattle -7.5 into the NFL's softest defense: WAS ranks 30th pass, 32nd run.
SideBET AWAY SEA -7.5line moved to -7.5 into WAS #30/#32 defense.
TotalPASSprojected 40.5 sits exactly on the line.
Best bet
Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 92.5 receiving yards against Washington's #28 pass defense (36.9 fpa allowed).
Quick hits
- SEA -7.5, total 40.5, implied SEA 24.0 / WAS 16.5.
- Lopsided, not high: SEA offense #2 meets WAS defense #30, but SEA defense #1 caps Washington.
- JSN vs WAS #28 WR defense (36.9 fpa) is the game's clear edge.
- SEA leads, balanced attack; WAS forced to pass into SEA #2 QB defense.
- Darnold questionable (glute) is the swing; a downgrade shrinks the SEA passing edge.
Key matchups
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs WAS #28 WR (36.9 fpa): SMASH, proj 21.5.
- Sam Darnold vs WAS #30 QB (22.8 fpa): SMASH, proj 16.2 if active.
- AJ Barner vs WAS #29 TE (18.0 fpa): SMASH at $3100.
- Marcus Mariota vs SEA #2 QB (13.2 fpa): TOUGH, no Jayden Daniels.
- Terry McLaurin vs SEA #1 WR (21.8 fpa): TOUGH, proj 10.2.
- Rachaad White vs SEA #4 RB (18.0 fpa): TOUGH, proj 8.7.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 21.0 | $8,600 | WAS #32 of 32 | 40.8 | Smash |
| SEA |
Sam Darnold | QB | 16.6 | $5,400 | WAS #31 of 32 | 24.2 | Smash |
| SEA |
Jadarian Price | RB | 11.7 | $5,300 | WAS #14 of 32 | 21.0 | Neutral |
| SEA |
AJ Barner | TE | 6.6 | $3,100 | WAS #30 of 32 | 18.3 | Smash |
| WAS |
Marcus Mariota | QB | 15.0 | $4,500 | SEA #3 of 32 | 14.2 | Tough |
| WAS |
Terry McLaurin | WR | 11.9 | $5,100 | SEA #1 of 32 | 24.8 | Tough |
| WAS |
Rachaad White | RB | 8.1 | $5,100 | SEA #5 of 32 | 17.8 | Tough |
SEA skill positions vs WAS defenseQB
#31/32
24.2 fpa
RB
#14/32
21.0 fpa
WR
#32/32
40.8 fpa
TE
#30/32
18.3 fpa
WAS skill positions vs SEA defenseQB
#3/32
14.2 fpa
RB
#5/32
17.8 fpa
WR
#1/32
24.8 fpa
TE
#15/32
13.0 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- SEA 60 plays (#21), 49% pass; WAS 59 plays (#26), 49% pass, slow tempo.
- SEA scripts a lead, feeds 128 rush yds (#8); WAS chases through the air.
- Points skew Seattle: 24.0 implied vs 16.5, WAS held under 20 five straight.
Projected points (market implied)
SEA24.5
WAS16.0
Offense profile
SEARank of 32WAS
28.8
#2
Pts / G
20.6
#23
244.4
#9
Pass yds / G
190.8
#27
123.5
#9
Rush yds / G
130.2
#6
60.5
#21
Plays / G
59.1
#26
50%
Pass rate
49%
1.7
Pass TD / G
1.3
1.0
Rush TD / G
0.9
1.6
Sacks taken / G
1.9
0.8
INT thrown / G
0.7
Defense profile
SEARank of 32WAS
16.9
#1
Pts allowed / G
28.6
#30
209.4
#10
Pass yds allowed
264.7
#31
92.7
#3
Rush yds allowed
138.2
#31
2.7
Sacks / G
2.2
0.9
INT / G
0.6
1.3
Pass TD allowed
2.3
0.5
Rush TD allowed
1.0
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-28, 21 games per team.
Weather
At kickoff · 2026-09-27 13:00 local
Low impact
Conditions
Overcast
Temp
71°F
feels 63°
Wind
15 mph NW
gusts 23 mph
Rain
11%
0.00 in
Humidity
48%
- Wind 14 mph: minor, mostly on long kicks
WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface
- Wind 15 mph NW, gusts 23, overcast 71F, rain 11%: minor, mostly long kicks.
- Low passing impact; slight ding to deep balls and field goals.
DFS
- Stack Darnold with JSN into WAS #28/#30 secondary for the game's top ceiling.
- Value AJ Barner $3100 (2.25x) vs WAS #29 TE, cheap smash.
- Fade Rachaad White $5100 vs SEA #4 RB, TOUGH matchup, split backfield.
- Contrarian: Rashid Shaheed $4200 secondary WR against the softest WR defense.
SEA projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 21.0 | 11.4 / 34.6 | $8,600 | 2.44x | $9,200 | #32 |
| QB | Sam Darnold | 16.6 | 10.3 / 25.3 | $5,400 | 3.08x | $6,900 | #31 |
| RB | Jadarian Price | 11.7 | 6.1 / 18.9 | $5,300 | 2.20x | $6,000 | #14 |
| WR | Rashid Shaheed | 8.3 | 2.4 / 15.8 | $4,200 | 1.98x | $5,300 | #32 |
| TE | AJ Barner | 6.6 | 2.0 / 13.9 | $3,100 | 2.13x | $4,800 | #30 |
| WR | Cooper Kupp | 6.3 | 1.5 / 13.1 | $4,000 | 1.57x | $5,200 | #32 |
| RB | Emanuel Wilson | 5.5 | 2.2 / 11.8 | $4,900 | 1.13x | $5,800 | #14 |
WAS projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Marcus Mariota | 15.0 | 8.5 / 23.1 | $4,500 | 3.33x | $6,700 | #3 |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | 11.9 | 4.8 / 19.4 | $5,100 | 2.33x | $5,900 | #1 |
| WR | Stefon Diggs | 11.8 | 4.9 / 19.5 | $5,500 | 2.14x | $6,400 | #1 |
| RB | Rachaad White | 8.1 | 4.3 / 14.7 | $5,100 | 1.59x | $5,400 | #5 |
| RB | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 7.5 | 3.5 / 15.2 | $5,300 | 1.42x | $5,900 | #5 |
| WR | Antonio Williams | 5.5 | 1.6 / 11.2 | $4,100 | 1.35x | $5,200 | #1 |
| WR | Dyami Brown | 4.1 | 0.0 / 10.2 | $3,200 | 1.29x | $4,700 | #1 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba - receiving yards 92.5 - OVER - vs #28 WR, proj 21.5.
- AJ Barner - receptions 2.5 - OVER - vs #29 TE, elite matchup.
- Marcus Mariota - passing yards 169.5 - UNDER - vs SEA #2 QB defense.
- Terry McLaurin - receiving yards 40.5 - UNDER - vs SEA #1 WR (21.8 fpa).
Injuries
SEA 8 listed- Out Irvin Charles WR Undisclosed Severe
- Out Jalen Milroe QB Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Montorie Foster Jr. WR Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Zach Charbonnet RB Knee Severe
- Out Avery Smith CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Brandon Pili NT Concussion Minimal
- Out Connor O'Toole OLB Unknown Minimal
- Out Julian Love FS Unknown Minimal
WAS 8 listed- Out Chig Okonkwo TE Unknown Severe
- Out Jayden Daniels QB Unknown Severe
- IR Jeremy McNichols RB Quadriceps Severe
- Out Frankie Luvu ILB Unknown Minimal
- Out Javontae Jean-Baptiste OLB Coach'S Decision Minimal
- Out Leo Chenal ILB Neck Minimal
- Out Nick Cross FS Unknown Minimal
- Out Samuel Cosmi G Unknown Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- SEA won 5 straight, WAS lost 4 of 5, including 20-37 at DAL.
- H2H: SEA won last meeting 38-14 at Washington.
- Spread moved WAS 6.5 to 7.5 toward Seattle; total flat at 40.5.
SEA last 5L 31-33 @ WASW 31-7 @ ARIW 13-10 vs NEW 29-13 @ NEW 31-27 vs LA
WAS last 5W 33-31 vs SEAL 20-37 @ DALL 22-24 @ PHIW 24-17 @ PHIL 23-30 vs DAL
Head-to-head
- Sep 27, 2026 SEA 31 at WAS 33
- Nov 2, 2025 SEA 38 at WAS 14
- Nov 12, 2023 WAS 26 at SEA 29
Watch list
- Sam Darnold glute status; a downgrade slashes the SEA passing edge.
- Cooper Kupp and Jadarian Price questionable; confirm active before locking DFS.
- Wind gusts to 23 mph; monitor for deep-ball and kicking impact.
Week 3 slate
Swipe for all 16 games this week.
ATL @ GB
Thu 8:15 PM ET
GB -4.5
O/U 43.5
Final
CAR @ CLE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CAR -2.5
O/U 41.5
Final
CIN @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -3.5
O/U 42.5
Final
HOU @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
HOU -1.5
O/U 42.5
Final
KC @ MIA
Sun 1:00 PM ET
KC -10.5
O/U 45.5
Final
LAC @ BUF
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF -7.5
O/U 50.5
Final
NE @ JAX
Sun 1:00 PM ET
JAX -2.5
O/U 45.5
Final
NYJ @ DET
Sun 1:00 PM ET
DET -6.5
O/U 48.5
Final
SEA @ WAS
Sun 1:00 PM ET
SEA -8.5
O/U 40.5
Final
TEN @ NYG
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NYG -2.5
O/U 37.5
Final
ARI @ SF
Sun 4:05 PM ET
SF -7.5
O/U 47.5
Final
MIN @ TB
Sun 4:05 PM ET
MIN -1.5
O/U 42.5
Final
BAL @ DAL
Sun 4:25 PM ET
BAL -3.5
O/U 52.5
Final
LV @ NO
Sun 4:25 PM ET
NO -3
O/U 43.5
Final
LA @ DEN
Sun 8:20 PM ET
LA -2.5
O/U 44.5
Final
PHI @ CHI
Mon 8:15 PM ET
PHI -3.5
O/U 42.5
Kicked off