Archived Week 3 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET · ESPN · Soldier Field, Chicago
Primetime Live
Philadelphia Eagles
2-0 · 10-7 last season
Implied23.0
At
PHI -3.5 Total 42.5 Closed · PHI -190 · CHI +160
Chicago Bears
1-1 · 12-6 last season
Implied19.5
Line movement open Sep 22
CHI spread
+4.5 +3.5
1.0
Total
41.5 42.5
1.0
FanDuel
The angle
Lean · 4/10
Hurts draws CHI's #28 QB defense, but the model's 3.5-point margin exactly matches the spread.
SidePASSprojected margin 3.5 exactly equals the spread with QB uncertainty both ways.
TotalPASSprojected total 41.5 sits right on the line.
Best bet
Jalen Hurts as GPP core against CHI's #28-ranked QB defense (20.5 fpa) is the game's clearest edge.
Quick hits
- PHI -3.5, total 41.5, implied PHI 22.5 / CHI 19.0.
- Below-average total 41.5, driven by PHI's #7 scoring defense against a shaky CHI passing game.
- Hurts vs CHI's #28 QB defense (20.5 fpa) is the decisive edge.
- PHI leads narrowly, balanced pass; CHI (#3 rush) leans run behind a backup QB.
- Caleb Williams and Keenum both questionable, plus Smith's hamstring, swing this.
Key matchups
- Hurts vs CHI #28 QB defense: 20.5 fpa, softest spot, SMASH.
- DeVonta Smith vs CHI #22 WR defense: 33.8 fpa, favorable if hamstring holds.
- Barkley vs CHI #20 RB defense: 22.9 fpa, favorable rushing lane.
- Colston Loveland vs PHI #1 TE defense: 7.4 fpa, avoid, TOUGH.
- Luther Burden III vs PHI #6 WR defense: 27.5 fpa, TOUGH matchup.
- Swift vs PHI #18 RB defense: 22.0 fpa, neutral, CHI's main threat.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI |
Jalen Hurts | QB | 20.8 | $6,800 | CHI #28 of 32 | 20.5 | Smash |
| PHI |
DeVonta Smith | WR | 16.4 | $7,100 | CHI #22 of 32 | 33.8 | Favorable |
| PHI |
Saquon Barkley | RB | 14.9 | $7,000 | CHI #20 of 32 | 22.9 | Favorable |
| PHI |
Zach Ertz | TE | 4.1 | $3,100 | CHI #12 of 32 | 11.9 | Neutral |
| CHI |
D'Andre Swift | RB | 14.4 | $6,200 | PHI #18 of 32 | 22.0 | Neutral |
| CHI |
Case Keenum | QB | 11.7 | $4,000 | PHI #12 of 32 | 16.6 | Neutral |
| CHI |
Luther Burden III | WR | 10.1 | $5,600 | PHI #6 of 32 | 27.5 | Tough |
| CHI |
Colston Loveland | TE | 8.4 | $5,000 | PHI #1 of 32 | 7.4 | Tough |
PHI skill positions vs CHI defenseQB
#28/32
20.5 fpa
RB
#20/32
22.9 fpa
WR
#22/32
33.8 fpa
TE
#12/32
11.9 fpa
CHI skill positions vs PHI defenseQB
#12/32
16.6 fpa
RB
#18/32
22.0 fpa
WR
#6/32
27.5 fpa
TE
#1/32
7.4 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- CHI runs #1 in plays (68) at 53% pass; PHI slower at 60 plays, 52% pass.
- PHI favored, script leans PHI ball control; CHI trailing but run-first at #3 rush.
- Points implied 22.5/19.0; PHI's #7 defense caps CHI's red-zone upside.
Projected points (market implied)
PHI23.0
CHI19.5
Offense profile
PHIRank of 32CHI
21.7
#19
Pts / G
26.4
#8
214.9
#22
Pass yds / G
240.8
#13
116.9
#14
Rush yds / G
154.9
#3
60.2
#22
Plays / G
67.6
#1
52%
Pass rate
53%
1.7
Pass TD / G
1.5
0.8
Rush TD / G
1.3
2.1
Sacks taken / G
1.4
0.5
INT thrown / G
0.7
Defense profile
PHIRank of 32CHI
19.2
#7
Pts allowed / G
23.1
#17
208.5
#9
Pass yds allowed
243.5
#23
120.2
#19
Rush yds allowed
129.1
#25
2.5
Sacks / G
2.2
0.7
INT / G
1.1
0.9
Pass TD allowed
1.7
1.2
Rush TD allowed
0.9
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-28, 21 games per team.
Weather
At kickoff · 2026-09-28 19:00 local
No weather factor
Conditions
Clear
Temp
65°F
feels 61°
Wind
5 mph ENE
gusts 8 mph
Rain
2%
0.00 in
Humidity
47%
- Clear, 65F, wind 4 mph: no weather factor
WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface
- Clear, 65F, wind 5 mph, 3% rain: no weather factor.
- Passing and kicking unaffected; total driven by matchups, not conditions.
DFS
- Stack: Hurts plus DeVonta Smith into CHI's #28 QB / #22 WR spots.
- Value: Swift $6200 at 2.52x, CHI's featured back in a neutral matchup.
- Fade: Loveland $5000 into PHI's #1 TE defense, 1.68x.
- Contrarian: Wicks $4100 (2.32x) profits if Smith or Brown sits.
PHI projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jalen Hurts | 20.8 | 12.5 / 27.8 | $6,800 | 3.05x | $13,000 | #28 |
| WR | DeVonta Smith | 16.4 | 8.9 / 28.6 | $7,100 | 2.31x | $10,800 | #22 |
| RB | Saquon Barkley | 14.9 | 7.8 / 22.7 | $7,000 | 2.12x | $12,200 | #20 |
| WR | Dontayvion Wicks | 9.5 | 3.7 / 17.8 | $4,100 | 2.32x | $7,600 | #22 |
| WR | Makai Lemon | 6.6 | 2.6 / 13.2 | $4,300 | 1.54x | $3,800 | #22 |
| TE | Zach Ertz | 4.1 | 1.2 / 8.4 | $3,100 | 1.33x | $3,600 | #12 |
| RB | Will Shipley | 3.3 | 0.7 / 7.8 | $4,500 | 0.73x | $3,200 | #20 |
CHI projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | D'Andre Swift | 14.4 | 8.2 / 24.0 | $6,200 | 2.32x | $11,400 | #18 |
| QB | Case Keenum | 11.7 | 6.3 / 18.0 | $4,000 | 2.92x | $10,400 | #12 |
| WR | Luther Burden III | 10.1 | 4.4 / 17.5 | $5,600 | 1.80x | $8,200 | #6 |
| TE | Colston Loveland | 8.4 | 3.4 / 15.2 | $5,000 | 1.67x | $7,200 | #1 |
| RB | Kyle Monangai | 8.4 | 3.4 / 14.9 | $5,200 | 1.61x | $9,600 | #18 |
| WR | Kalif Raymond | 7.7 | 2.9 / 13.5 | $3,800 | 2.02x | $5,400 | #6 |
| WR | Rome Odunze | 6.6 | 2.4 / 13.5 | $5,300 | 1.25x | $8,600 | #6 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Jalen Hurts - rushing yards 24.5 - lean over (o-105) - designed-run floor vs #28 QB defense.
- D'Andre Swift - rushing yards 61.5 - lean over (o+145) - #3 rush offense, PHI #19 vs run.
- Colston Loveland - receiving yards 31.5 - lean under (o+150) - PHI #1 vs TE, 7.4 fpa.
- DeVonta Smith - receiving yards 72.5 - lean over (o+130) - #22 WR spot, if hamstring holds.
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Over | Book | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts QB PHI | Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.9 | +134 | FanDuel | #22 |
| Jalen Hurts QB PHI | Pass yds | 216.5 | 232.2 | +175 | Bovada | #23 |
| Jalen Hurts QB PHI | Rush yds | 26.5 | 26.7 | +180 | Bovada | #25 |
| DeVonta Smith WR PHI | Receptions | 5.5 | 6.0 | -110 | BetMGM | #23 |
| DeVonta Smith WR PHI | Rec yds | 71.5 | 80.6 | +130 | Bovada | #23 |
| Saquon Barkley RB PHI | Rush yds | 75.5 | 74.6 | +215 | Bovada | #25 |
| Saquon Barkley RB PHI | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.1 | +135 | BetOnline | #23 |
| Saquon Barkley RB PHI | Rec yds | 13.5 | 17.4 | -113 | FanDuel | #23 |
| D'Andre Swift RB CHI | Rush yds | 61.5 | 63.8 | +145 | Bovada | #19 |
| D'Andre Swift RB CHI | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.7 | +135 | BetRivers | #9 |
| D'Andre Swift RB CHI | Rec yds | 13.5 | 17.4 | -113 | FanDuel | #9 |
| Case Keenum QB CHI | Pass TD | 0.5 | – | -196 | BetOnline | #1 |
| Case Keenum QB CHI | Pass yds | 168.5 | – | +200 | Bovada | #9 |
| Case Keenum QB CHI | Rush yds | 2.5 | – | -102 | FanDuel | #19 |
Best available over price per line. Opp rank = the defense's rank in that stat allowed (32 allows the most).
All PHI and CHI props with AI gradesInjuries
PHI 8 listed- Out Dallas Goedert TE Knee Severe
- Out Johnny Wilson WR Knee Severe
- Out Marquise Brown WR Ankle Severe
- IR Eli Stowers TE Quadriceps/Hamstring Severe
- Out Andre' Sam FS Foot Minimal
- Out Fred Johnson T Knee Minimal
- Out Tucker Large FS Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Jonathan Greenard OLB Pectoral Minimal
CHI 8 listed- Out Caleb Williams QB 3-To-4-Week Severe
- IR Brittain Brown RB Undisclosed Severe
- Out Anthony Johnson Jr. FS Unknown Minimal
- Out Dallis Flowers CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Jonathan Garvin DE Unknown Minimal
- Out Kyler Gordon CB Calf Minimal
- Out Ruben Hyppolite II LB Shoulder Minimal
- Out Shemar Turner DE Knee Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- Form: PHI 2-0, CHI 1-1 with a 3-9 dud vs MIN last out.
- H2H: CHI won last meeting 24-15 on 2025-11-28.
- Line moved 1.0 toward CHI (4.5 to 3.5) since open.
PHI last 5W 24-20 @ TENW 24-22 vs WASL 19-23 vs SFL 17-24 vs WASW 13-12 @ BUF
CHI last 5L 3-9 vs MINW 59-37 @ CARL 17-20 vs LAW 31-27 vs GBL 16-19 vs DET
Head-to-head
- Nov 28, 2025 CHI 24 at PHI 15
- Dec 18, 2022 PHI 25 at CHI 20
Watch list
- Caleb Williams and Bagent both questionable; confirm Keenum starts, which caps CHI's total.
- DeVonta Smith (hamstring) questionable; his status makes or breaks the stack.
- Marquise Brown and Tank Bigsby questionable; active status shifts PHI target and touch share.
- Spread moved 1.0 toward CHI; watch for further sharp movement before kickoff.
Week 3 slate
Swipe for all 16 games this week.
ATL @ GB
Thu 8:15 PM ET
GB -4.5
O/U 43.5
Final
CAR @ CLE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CAR -2.5
O/U 41.5
Final
CIN @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -3.5
O/U 42.5
Final
HOU @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
HOU -1.5
O/U 42.5
Final
KC @ MIA
Sun 1:00 PM ET
KC -10.5
O/U 45.5
Final
LAC @ BUF
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF -7.5
O/U 50.5
Final
NE @ JAX
Sun 1:00 PM ET
JAX -2.5
O/U 45.5
Final
NYJ @ DET
Sun 1:00 PM ET
DET -6.5
O/U 48.5
Final
SEA @ WAS
Sun 1:00 PM ET
SEA -8.5
O/U 40.5
Final
TEN @ NYG
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NYG -2.5
O/U 37.5
Final
ARI @ SF
Sun 4:05 PM ET
SF -7.5
O/U 47.5
Final
MIN @ TB
Sun 4:05 PM ET
MIN -1.5
O/U 42.5
Final
BAL @ DAL
Sun 4:25 PM ET
BAL -3.5
O/U 52.5
Final
LV @ NO
Sun 4:25 PM ET
NO -3
O/U 43.5
Final
LA @ DEN
Sun 8:20 PM ET
LA -2.5
O/U 44.5
Final
PHI @ CHI
Mon 8:15 PM ET
PHI -3.5
O/U 42.5
Kicked off