Archived Week 3 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 27, 8:20 PM ET · NBC · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver Primetime Final

Los Angeles Rams

1-1 · 13-7 last season

Final26

At LA -2.5 Total 44.5 DEN covered · Over

Denver Broncos

1-1 · 16-3 last season

Final30

Line movement open Sep 22 DEN spread +2.5 +2.5 no move Total 45.5 44.5 1.0

The angle, before kickoff Pass · 2/10

LA -2.5 but DEN's #3 pass defense chokes Adams while Waddle draws the softest WR spot on the board.

SidePASSprojected margin 2.5 equals the spread exactly, no edge.

TotalBET UNDER 44.5DEN #3 scoring defense plus 18 mph wind, total already dropping.

Best bet

Under 44.5: elite Denver defense, capped LA passing in wind, and a market moving the same direction.

Quick hits

Market LA -2.5, total 44.5, implied LA 23.5 / DEN 21.0.
Balanced-to-low: LA #1 offense meets DEN #3 scoring defense at home.
Decisive spot: Waddle vs LA #21 WR (33.2 fpa) is the game's clear edge.
Script: LA narrow favorite, both pass-lean (57%/58%), grind expected.
Swing factor: Puka Nacua and Dobbins questionable, plus 18 mph wind.

Key matchups

Jaylen Waddle vs LA #21 WR: 33.2 fpa, softest spot, FAVORABLE.
Davante Adams vs DEN #3 WR: 25.4 fpa, buzzsaw, TOUGH.
Matthew Stafford vs DEN #6 QB: 15.1 fpa, avoid, TOUGH.
Evan Engram vs LA #5 TE: 11.0 fpa, avoid, TOUGH.
Kyren Williams vs DEN #15 RB: 21.9 fpa, average, NEUTRAL.
Bo Nix vs LA #10 QB: 15.7 fpa, NEUTRAL.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
LA	Davante Adams	WR	18.2	$6,200	DEN #7 of 32	27.9	Tough
LA	Matthew Stafford	QB	16.2	$5,900	DEN #11 of 32	16.6	Neutral
LA	Kyren Williams	RB	14.5	$6,100	DEN #19 of 32	22.3	Neutral
LA	Terrance Ferguson	TE	10.7	$2,700	DEN #23 of 32	14.7	Favorable
DEN	Bo Nix	QB	16.3	$5,500	LA #14 of 32	17.0	Neutral
DEN	Jaylen Waddle	WR	14.3	$6,700	LA #21 of 32	32.9	Favorable
DEN	RJ Harvey	RB	9.9	$5,200	LA #9 of 32	20.1	Neutral
DEN	Evan Engram	TE	6.0	$3,100	LA #5 of 32	10.6	Tough

LA skill positions vs DEN defense

#11/32

16.6 fpa

Bad

#19/32

22.3 fpa

Good

#7/32

27.9 fpa

Avoid

#23/32

14.7 fpa

Good

DEN skill positions vs LA defense

#14/32

17.0 fpa

Bad

#9/32

20.1 fpa

Bad

#21/32

32.9 fpa

Good

#5/32

10.6 fpa

Avoid

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

Fast pace, both top-5 in plays (65/64), pass rates 57% and 58%.
LA leads slightly per 23.5 implied, DEN plays from behind and throws.
Points scarce: DEN allows 18.4 (#3), LA 20.9 (#9), low TD rates cap it.

Projected points (market implied)

LA23.5

DEN21.0

Offense profile

LARank of 32DEN

29.4 #1 Pts / G 22.8 #15

289.8 #1 Pass yds / G 232.3 #15

125.6 #8 Rush yds / G 106.5 #24

65.5 #3 Plays / G 63.7 #7

57% Pass rate 58%

2.6 Pass TD / G 1.5

0.9 Rush TD / G 0.9

1.4 Sacks taken / G 1.5

0.6 INT thrown / G 0.7

Defense profile

LARank of 32DEN

21.4 #10 Pts allowed / G 18.8 #5

239.5 #21 Pass yds allowed 211.4 #11

109.8 #9 Rush yds allowed 103.1 #6

2.2 Sacks / G 3.8

1.1 INT / G 0.8

1.6 Pass TD allowed 1.2

0.6 Rush TD allowed 0.7

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-28, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-27 18:00 local Moderate impact

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

80°F

feels 67°

Wind

18 mph SSE

gusts 24 mph

Rain

0.00 in

Humidity

20%

Wind 17 mph: field goals past 45 and deep shots get harder

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Wind 18 mph SSE, gusts 24, moderate: deep shots and field goals past 45 harder.
F, 9% rain, no precip factor, but wind trims the total and passing ceiling.

DFS

Stack Bo Nix ($5500) with Waddle ($6700) into the #21 WR matchup.
Value: Terrance Ferguson $2700 at 4.23x, neutral TE spot, cheap leverage.
Fade Davante Adams $6200 into DEN's #3 WR defense.
Contrarian: Kyren Williams $6100 as the safest LA floor if passing stalls.

LA projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
WR	Davante Adams	18.2	8.5 / 29.3	$6,200	2.94x	$8,200	#7
QB	Matthew Stafford	16.2	10.2 / 25.1	$5,900	2.74x	$7,800	#11
RB	Kyren Williams	14.5	8.3 / 24.7	$6,100	2.37x	$8,200	#19
TE	Terrance Ferguson doubtful	10.7	4.7 / 20.8	$2,700	3.95x	$4,900	#23
RB	Blake Corum	9.0	4.4 / 17.0	$4,600	1.96x	$5,900	#19
TE	Colby Parkinson questionable	4.5	0.0 / 10.7	$3,200	1.40x	$5,300	#23
WR	Jordan Whittington	4.5	0.0 / 11.2	$3,200	1.41x	$4,700	#7

DEN projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Bo Nix	16.3	10.2 / 24.2	$5,500	2.96x	$7,300	#14
WR	Jaylen Waddle	14.3	7.2 / 24.5	$6,700	2.14x	$6,900	#21
RB	RJ Harvey	9.9	4.8 / 15.6	$5,200	1.90x	$5,700	#9
WR	Courtland Sutton	9.9	3.9 / 17.1	$5,200	1.91x	$5,900	#21
RB	J.K. Dobbins	9.4	4.6 / 17.2	$5,400	1.75x	$6,100	#9
WR	Pat Bryant	6.9	2.7 / 13.5	$4,000	1.73x	$4,900	#21
TE	Evan Engram	6.0	2.3 / 12.0	$3,100	1.92x	$5,000	#5

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Jaylen Waddle - receptions o4.5 (+135) - lean over - LA #21 vs WR, softest spot.
Davante Adams - receiving yards u74.5 - lean under - DEN #3 WR defense, 25.4 fpa.
Matthew Stafford - passing yards u241.5 - lean under - DEN #6 QB, 18 mph wind.
Terrance Ferguson - receptions o3.5 (-157) - lean over - neutral #17 TE matchup.

All LA and DEN props with AI grades