Archived Week 3 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · MetLife Stadium, New York Final

Tennessee Titans

0-2 · 3-14 last season

Final7

At NYG -2.5 Total 37.5 NYG covered · Under

New York Giants

1-1 · 6-11 last season

Final12

Line movement open Sep 22 NYG spread -2.5 -2.5 no move Total 39.5 37.5 2.0

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 4/10

Wind 26 mph, gusts 44, at MetLife caps a 38.5 total between two bottom-half offenses.

SideBET HOME -2.5NYG rush #5 and Nabers SMASH edge, but line never moved.

TotalBET UNDER 38.526 mph wind and two bottom-half offenses; total already dropped 1.

Best bet

Under 38.5 is the play: 44 mph gusts choke passing and kicking between two sub-23 point offenses.

Quick hits

NYG -2.5, total 38.5; implied TEN 18.0, NYG 20.5.
Low scoring: TEN offense #31 in points, NYG #16, plus 26 mph wind.
Malik Nabers vs TEN #30 WR defense is the game's clearest edge.
NYG leads and leans run (#5 rush, 49% pass); TEN chases through air.
Pollard questionable and 44 mph gusts can swing the total lower.

Key matchups

Malik Nabers vs TEN #30 WR: 38.4 fpa, SMASH, top WR play on the slate.
Cam Skattebo vs TEN #13 RB: 21.5 fpa, neutral matchup but 16.6 projection leads all.
Tony Pollard vs NYG #27 RB: 26.1 fpa, SMASH spot if he clears questionable tag.
Isaiah Likely vs TEN #21 TE: 13.1 fpa, FAVORABLE, 11.3 projection is strong.
Carnell Tate vs NYG #25 WR: 34.7 fpa, FAVORABLE but only 9.7 projected.
Gunnar Helm vs NYG #15 TE: 12.5 fpa, NEUTRAL, avoid the cheap piece.

TEN skill positions vs NYG defense

#22/32

18.7 fpa

Good

#24/32

24.4 fpa

Good

#24/32

34.4 fpa

Good

#10/32

11.7 fpa

Bad

NYG skill positions vs TEN defense

#10/32

16.5 fpa

Bad

#15/32

21.1 fpa

Average

#25/32

35.3 fpa

Elite

#11/32

11.7 fpa

Bad

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

NYG runs 64 plays (#7) at 49% pass; TEN 58 plays (#29) at 60% pass.
Favorite NYG grinds clock with Skattebo; TEN trails and throws more.
Points scarce: implied 20.5 and 18.0, both TD rates near 1 per game.

Projected points (market implied)

TEN17.5

NYG20.0

Offense profile

TENRank of 32NYG

15.9 #32 Pts / G 22.1 #17

190.6 #28 Pass yds / G 200.4 #24

93.8 #30 Rush yds / G 133.1 #4

57.5 #29 Plays / G 63.4 #8

60% Pass rate 49%

0.9 Pass TD / G 1.2

0.6 Rush TD / G 1.2

2.7 Sacks taken / G 2.8

0.5 INT thrown / G 0.5

Defense profile

TENRank of 32NYG

26.1 #26 Pts allowed / G 24.2 #20

242.1 #22 Pass yds allowed 222.1 #16

111.2 #12 Rush yds allowed 136.6 #29

2.7 Sacks / G 1.9

0.3 INT / G 0.6

1.6 Pass TD allowed 1.6

1.1 Rush TD allowed 1.0

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-28, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-27 13:00 local Moderate impact

Conditions

Patchy rain nearby

Temp

62°F

feels 49°

Wind

26 mph NNE

gusts 44 mph

Rain

30%

0.00 in

Humidity

87%

Wind 26 mph (gusts 44): deep passing and kicking suffer, lean under

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Wind 26 mph NNE, gusts 44, 62F, 30% rain: deep passing and kicking suffer badly.
Lean under; ball-control rushing and short throws favored for both sides.
DFS: fade kickers and downfield WRs, prioritize backs and target volume.

Props

Malik Nabers - receiving yards 55.5 - lean over - vs TEN #30 WR, 38.4 fpa.
Cam Skattebo - rushing yards 57.5 - lean over - 16.6 projection, wind favors ground.
Isaiah Likely - receptions 3.5 - lean over - FAVORABLE vs #21 TE, 11.3 proj.
Jameis Winston - passing yards 203.5 - lean under - 26 mph gusts limit air yards.

All TEN and NYG props with AI grades

Injuries

TEN 8 listed

Out Jaren Kanak TE Unknown Severe
Out Kylen Granson TE Unknown Severe
Out Michael Carter RB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Atonio Mafi G Unknown Minimal
Out Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson OT Unknown Minimal
Out Jackie Marshall DT Unknown Minimal
Out Jaylen Harrell DE Unknown Minimal
Out Jaylon Jones CB Unknown Minimal

NYG 8 listed

Out Devin Singletary RB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Thomas Fidone TE Unknown Severe
Out Bobby Jamison-Travis DT Unknown Minimal
Out Daniel Faalele G Unknown Minimal
Out Deonte Banks CB Calf Minimal
Out J.C. Davis OT Unknown Minimal
Out Jarrick Bernard-Converse CB Unknown Minimal
Out Josh Tupou DT Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

Form: TEN lost 5 straight; NYG 3-2 in last 5 but blown out 6-28 at LA.
H2H: last meeting NYG 21 at TEN 20 in 2022.
Line: spread flat at NYG -2.5; total dropped 39.5 to 38.5.

TEN last 5

L 7-12 @ NYGL 20-24 vs PHIL 10-23 vs NYJL 7-41 @ JAXL 26-34 vs NO

NYG last 5

W 12-7 vs TENL 6-28 @ LAW 28-20 vs DALW 34-17 vs DALW 34-10 @ LV

Head-to-head

Sep 27, 2026 TEN 7 at NYG 12
Sep 11, 2022 NYG 21 at TEN 20

Watch list

Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears both questionable: Titans backfield touches unresolved.
Andrew Thomas (groin) and Brian Burns (ankle) questionable: NYG line and pass rush.
Wind at kickoff: if gusts hold near 44, hammer under and run-heavy props.

Week 3 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

ATL @ GB