Archived Week 3 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET · FOX · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay Final

Minnesota Vikings

2-0 · 10-7 last season

Final23

At MIN -1.5 Total 42.5 MIN covered · Under

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0-2 · 5-12 last season

Final16

Line movement open Sep 22 TB spread +1.5 +1.5 no move Total 42.5 42.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 4/10

MIN -1.5 with Kyler and Hockenson smashing TB's 28th and 30th ranked defense spots.

SideBET AWAY -1.5MIN defense #1 vs QB meets TB's 31st pass defense.

TotalPASSprojected total lands exactly on 42.5.

Best bet

T.J. Hockenson over 3.5 receptions against TB's 30th-ranked TE defense at $3200.

Quick hits

MIN -1.5, total 42.5, implied MIN 22.0 and TB 20.5, no line move.
Low-to-balanced scoring: MIN offense ranks 28th in points, total sits at 42.5.
TB pass defense is the leak: 31st in pass yards, 28th vs QB, 30th vs TE.
Close game script; MIN 2-0 leans efficient, TB 0-2 chasing with pass.
Aaron Jones questionable at RB1 shifts Vikings backfield and passing plan.

Key matchups

Kyler Murray vs TB QB defense: 20.6 fpa, #28, SMASH, softest spot.
T.J. Hockenson vs TB TE defense: 18.7 fpa, #30, SMASH, plug and play.
Baker Mayfield vs MIN QB defense: 12.9 fpa, #1, TOUGH, capped ceiling.
Cade Otton vs MIN TE defense: 9.6 fpa, #2, TOUGH, avoid.
Bucky Irving vs MIN RB defense: 18.2 fpa, #6, TOUGH, grinding matchup.
Justin Jefferson vs TB WR defense: 28.8 fpa, #10, NEUTRAL, price-tag risk.

MIN skill positions vs TB defense

#25/32

19.3 fpa

Elite

#10/32

20.4 fpa

Bad

#9/32

28.5 fpa

Bad

#27/32

16.5 fpa

Elite

TB skill positions vs MIN defense

#1/32

12.8 fpa

Avoid

#2/32

17.1 fpa

Avoid

#11/32

29.0 fpa

Bad

#3/32

9.4 fpa

Avoid

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

MIN runs just 57 plays per game (#30) at a 54% pass rate, slow tempo.
MIN leads with defense; TB trails and leans pass into a #1 QB defense.
Points come modestly: implied 22.0 and 20.5, TB TD rate suppressed by MIN front.

Projected points (market implied)

MIN22.0

TB20.5

Offense profile

MINRank of 32TB

19.6 #26 Pts / G 21.8 #18

186.4 #29 Pass yds / G 221.4 #18

104.6 #26 Rush yds / G 108.1 #22

56.9 #30 Plays / G 62.0 #15

54% Pass rate 55%

1.1 Pass TD / G 1.3

0.8 Rush TD / G 0.8

3.4 Sacks taken / G 2.6

1.2 INT thrown / G 0.8

Defense profile

MINRank of 32TB

18.7 #4 Pts allowed / G 24.9 #24

196.0 #2 Pass yds allowed 252.6 #29

116.3 #15 Rush yds allowed 97.6 #4

3.2 Sacks / G 2.1

0.6 INT / G 0.8

0.9 Pass TD allowed 1.8

0.6 Rush TD allowed 0.9

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-28, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-27 21:00 local Low impact

Conditions

Clear

Temp

68°F

feels 60°

Wind

10 mph W

gusts 14 mph

Rain

0.00 in

Humidity

38%

Wind 10 mph: minor, mostly on long kicks

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Clear, 68F, wind 10 mph gusting 14, rain 1%, minor impact only.
Wind touches long kicks slightly; passing and totals essentially unaffected.

DFS

Stack Murray plus Hockenson into TB's #28 QB and #30 TE spots.
Value: Hockenson $3200 at 2.59x, elite smash matchup and cheap price.
Fade Cade Otton $3100 into MIN's #2 TE defense.
Contrarian: Emeka Egbuka $6200 versus MIN's #11 WR unit trending up.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

T.J. Hockenson - receptions 3.5 (o-107) - lean over - #30 TE matchup.
Kyler Murray - passing yards 209.5 (o-113) - lean over - #28 QB defense.
Cade Otton - receiving yards 26.5 (o-111) - lean under - #2 TE defense.
Baker Mayfield - passing tds 1.5 (o+145) - lean under - #1 QB defense.

All MIN and TB props with AI grades

Injuries

MIN 8 listed

Out J.J. McCarthy QB Unknown Severe
Out Brett Thorson P Unknown Minimal
Out Caleb Tiernan OT Unknown Minimal
Out Elijah Williams DE Unknown Minimal
Out Jakobe Thomas FS Unknown Minimal
Out Jamal Adams LB Unknown Minimal
Out Tavierre Thomas FS Unknown Minimal
Out Zemaiah Vaughn CB Unknown Minimal

TB 8 listed

Out David Sills WR Undisclosed Severe
Out Ayden Garnes CB Unknown Minimal
Out Billy Schrauth G Unknown Minimal
Out Josiah Trotter LB Unknown Minimal
Out Luke Haggard G Unknown Minimal
Out Mohamed Kamara OLB Knee Minimal
Out Rakeem Nunez-Roches DE Unknown Minimal
Out Rueben Bain Jr. LB Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

MIN 5-0 last five including W 9-3 at CHI; defense elite.
H2H: TB won last meeting 20-17 at MIN in 2023.
Line static: spread 1.5 and total 42.5 unchanged since Sep 22.

MIN last 5

W 23-16 @ TBW 9-3 @ CHIW 39-22 vs GBW 16-3 vs GBW 23-10 vs DET

TB last 5

L 16-23 vs MINL 19-23 vs CLEL 27-33 @ CINW 16-14 vs CARL 17-20 @ MIA

Head-to-head

Sep 27, 2026 MIN 23 at TB 16
Sep 10, 2023 TB 20 at MIN 17

Watch list

Aaron Jones (Q) status - RB1 shifts touches and passing usage.
Brian O'Neill (Q) at tackle - affects Murray's protection and sacks.
Line move off 42.5 or -1.5 - none yet, confirms model read.

Week 3 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

ATL @ GB