Archived Week 3 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Thu Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET · Prime Video · Lambeau Field, Green Bay Final

Atlanta Falcons

0-2 · 8-9 last season

Final35

At GB -4.5 Total 43.5 ATL covered · Over

Green Bay Packers

1-1 · 8-9 last season

Final14

Line movement open Sep 22 GB spread -6.5 -4.5 2.0 Total 43.5 43.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Pass · 2/10

GB -5.5 with implied totals exactly at 24.5-19.0, but Penix is Out and the QB picture is murky.

SidePASSimplied margin 5.5 matches the spread exactly, no edge with Penix Out.

TotalPASSprojected total 43.5 sits right on the number.

Best bet

Christian Watson over 68.5 receiving yards against Atlanta's #24 WR defense allowing 34.1 fpa.

Quick hits

Market: GB -5.5, total 43.5, implied ATL 19.0 / GB 24.5.
Balanced-to-modest scoring; both implied totals sit near league-average marks.
Decisive spot: Bijan vs GB #20 RB defense against a depleted Falcons passing game.
Script: GB favored, likely leads and stays balanced; ATL leans run at #9 rush offense.
Changer: Penix listed Out (Knee) plus Tua Out leaves Atlanta's QB unsettled.

Key matchups

Christian Watson vs ATL #24 WR: 34.1 fpa, softest home spot, favorable.
Tucker Kraft vs ATL #24 TE: 14.4 fpa, favorable, trending up.
Bijan Robinson vs GB #20 RB: 22.8 fpa, favorable feature back.
Drake London vs GB #21 WR: 33.2 fpa, favorable but QB-dependent.
MarShawn Lloyd vs ATL #7 RB: 19.0 fpa, tough, avoid the ground.
Kyle Pitts vs GB #8 TE: 11.5 fpa, stingy, neutral at best.

ATL skill positions vs GB defense

#9/32

16.4 fpa

Bad

#29/32

26.6 fpa

Elite

#23/32

34.2 fpa

Good

#7/32

11.4 fpa

Avoid

GB skill positions vs ATL defense

#23/32

18.8 fpa

Good

#3/32

17.4 fpa

Avoid

#30/32

37.5 fpa

Elite

#18/32

13.8 fpa

Average

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

GB pass rate 53%, ATL 52%, both bottom-third in plays (60 and 61).
Packers lead script; Falcons chase, leaning on Robinson given QB questions.
Points from GB 24.5 implied; ATL 19.0 cap and 1.2 pass TD limit upside.

Projected points (market implied)

ATL19.5

GB24.0

Offense profile

ATLRank of 32GB

21.3 #20 Pts / G 22.8 #16

212.8 #23 Pass yds / G 241.7 #12

131.7 #5 Rush yds / G 110.4 #20

61.1 #17 Plays / G 60.5 #20

51% Pass rate 55%

1.2 Pass TD / G 1.7

1.1 Rush TD / G 0.9

1.7 Sacks taken / G 1.7

0.7 INT thrown / G 0.4

Defense profile

ATLRank of 32GB

24.1 #18 Pts allowed / G 24.3 #21

244.2 #24 Pass yds allowed 220.3 #14

117.6 #17 Rush yds allowed 128.7 #24

3.2 Sacks / G 1.9

0.9 INT / G 0.5

1.8 Pass TD allowed 1.6

0.6 Rush TD allowed 1.2

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-28, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-24 19:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

61°F

feels 59°

Wind

4 mph SSE

gusts 4 mph

Rain

17%

0.00 in

Humidity

67%

Overcast, 61F, wind 4 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

F, wind 4 mph, rain chance 17%, DraftEdge impact none.
No weather factor for passing, kicking or totals.

DFS

Stack: Love plus Watson and Kraft against ATL #24 WR and TE spots.
Value: Matthew Golden $4900 at 2.42x vs ATL #24 WR defense.
Fade: MarShawn Lloyd $5300, only 1.46x into ATL #7 RB defense.
Contrarian: Bijan $8700 in a game-flow tough for chasing Falcons offense.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Christian Watson - rec yards 68.5 - lean over - ATL #24 WR, 34.1 fpa.
Tucker Kraft - rec yards 43.5 - lean over - ATL #24 TE, favorable, 10.5 proj.
MarShawn Lloyd - rush yards 27.5 - lean under - ATL #7 RB, tough matchup.
Bijan Robinson - rush yards 77.5 - lean over - GB #20 RB, 20.1 proj.

All ATL and GB props with AI grades

Injuries

ATL 8 listed

Out Cooper Rush QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Jack Strand QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out A.J. Terrell CB Groin Minimal
Out Anterio Thompson DT Undisclosed Minimal
Out Ethan Onianwa OT Unknown Minimal
Out Malcolm DeWalt IV CB Unknown Minimal
Out Robert Longerbeam CB Unknown Minimal
Out Samson Ebukam OLB Hamstring Minimal

GB 8 listed

Out Jayden Reed WR Unknown Severe
Out Josh Jacobs RB Personal Severe
Out Aaron Banks G Toe Minimal
Out Anthony Campbell DT Ankle Minimal
Out Johnathan Baldwin FS Unknown Minimal
Out Jordon Riley DT Unknown Minimal
Out Warren Brinson DE Calf Minimal
Out Zach Tom OT Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

Form: ATL lost 3-34 to CAR last out; GB won 20-17 at NYJ.
H2H: last meeting GB 24 at ATL 25, one-point game.
Line moved GB -6.5 to -5.5, a full point toward Atlanta.

ATL last 5

W 35-14 @ GBL 3-34 vs CARL 13-20 @ PITW 19-17 vs NOW 27-24 vs LA

GB last 5

L 14-35 vs ATLW 20-17 @ NYJL 22-39 @ MINL 27-31 @ CHIL 3-16 @ MIN

Head-to-head

Sep 24, 2026 ATL 35 at GB 14
Sep 17, 2023 GB 24 at ATL 25

Watch list

Penix listed Out (Knee) with Tua also Out; confirm Atlanta's actual starting QB.
Brian Robinson questionable; his status shifts Bijan's workload and receiving share.
Jayden Reed and Bo Melton questionable for GB; watch target reallocation to Watson and Golden.
Spread moved to GB -5.5; monitor for further move toward Atlanta.

Week 3 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.