Archived Week 3 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET · CBS · Maracanã Stadium, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Neutral site Final

Baltimore Ravens

1-1 · 9-8 last season

Final34

Neutral site BAL -3.5 Total 52.5 DAL covered · Over

Dallas Cowboys

1-1 · 7-9 last season

Final31

Line movement open Sep 22 DAL spread +3 +3.5 0.5 Total 52.5 52.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 5/10

BAL -3.5 with SMASH grades at QB, RB and WR against a 31st-ranked Dallas defense.

SideBET AWAY -3.5spread moved toward BAL and Dallas ranks 31st in points allowed.

TotalPASSprojected 52.5 sits exactly on the line.

Best bet

Derrick Henry over 90.5 rushing yards against Dallas 28th-ranked run defense.

Quick hits

Market: BAL -3.5, total 52.5, implied BAL 28.0 / DAL 24.5.
High scoring: Dallas defense ranks 31st in points allowed, 28th vs run, 29th vs pass.
Decisive edge: Ravens skill players vs Dallas, QB #31, RB #26, WR #27 all soft.
Script: BAL leads and leans run, #1 rush offense grinding a 28th-ranked run D.
Swing factor: Zay Flowers questionable with a hamstring reshapes the Ravens passing usage.

Key matchups

Lamar Jackson vs DAL: #31 vs QB, 24.4 fpa, SMASH.
Derrick Henry vs DAL: #26 vs RB, 25.5 fpa, SMASH.
CeeDee Lamb vs BAL: #26 vs WR, 34.8 fpa, SMASH.
Zay Flowers vs DAL: #27 vs WR, 36.7 fpa, SMASH but questionable.
Jake Ferguson vs BAL: #6 vs TE, 11.2 fpa, TOUGH.
Dak Prescott vs BAL: #17 vs QB, 17.9 fpa, NEUTRAL.

BAL skill positions vs DAL defense

#30/32

23.8 fpa

Elite

#27/32

25.5 fpa

Elite

#27/32

35.5 fpa

Elite

#22/32

14.2 fpa

Good

DAL skill positions vs BAL defense

#20/32

18.0 fpa

Good

#17/32

21.9 fpa

Average

#29/32

37.1 fpa

Elite

#9/32

11.7 fpa

Bad

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

BAL 59 plays (#27) and 45% pass rate; Dallas faster at 64 plays, 56% pass.
Ravens favored, lean run behind #1 rush offense; Cowboys chase, pass-heavy.
Points from soft secondaries: BAL 28.0 and DAL 24.5 implied, both allowing 2.1 pass TD.

Projected points (market implied)

BAL28.0

DAL24.5

Offense profile

BALRank of 32DAL

23.8 #13 Pts / G 28.5 #3

194.4 #26 Pass yds / G 272.5 #2

164.5 #1 Rush yds / G 120.2 #12

58.5 #28 Plays / G 64.2 #5

44% Pass rate 56%

1.1 Pass TD / G 2.1

1.5 Rush TD / G 1.0

2.2 Sacks taken / G 1.7

0.7 INT thrown / G 0.5

Defense profile

BALRank of 32DAL

22.4 #13 Pts allowed / G 29.5 #31

252.1 #27 Pass yds allowed 249.5 #25

98.9 #5 Rush yds allowed 137.8 #30

1.9 Sacks / G 1.9

0.6 INT / G 0.3

1.2 Pass TD allowed 2.1

0.9 Rush TD allowed 1.4

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-28, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-27 17:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Partly Cloudy

Temp

74°F

feels 78°

Wind

6 mph ESE

gusts 8 mph

Rain

14%

0.00 in

Humidity

86%

Partly Cloudy, 73F, wind 5 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

F, wind 6 mph, rain 14%: no weather factor.
Passing, kicking and totals unaffected; DFS ceilings stay live.

DFS

Stack: Lamar Jackson plus Derrick Henry, both SMASH into Dallas.
Value: Mark Andrews $4400 at 2.47x vs #23 TE, favorable.
Fade: Jake Ferguson $4100 into BAL #6 vs TE, TOUGH.
Contrarian: George Pickens $6600 vs #26 WR if Lamb draws coverage.[/PROPS]

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Derrick Henry - rushing yards 90.5 - lean over - #26 run D, 25.5 fpa allowed.
CeeDee Lamb - receiving yards 81.5 - lean over - #26 vs WR, proj 18.8.
Lamar Jackson - rushing yards 40.5 - lean over - proj 22.3, #31 QB matchup.
Mark Andrews - receptions 4.5 - lean over - #23 vs TE, proj 10.9.

All BAL and DAL props with AI grades

Injuries

BAL 8 listed

Out Elijah Sarratt WR Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Joe Fagnano QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Skylar Thompson QB Unknown Severe
IR Adam Randall RB Undisclosed Severe
Out Aeneas Peebles DT Unknown Minimal
Out Carl Jones Jr. LB Unknown Minimal
Out K'Von Wallace FS Unknown Minimal
Out Ronnie Stanley T Unknown Minimal

DAL 8 listed

Out Camden Brown WR Unknown Severe
Out DJ Rogers TE Knee Severe
Out Emari Demercado RB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Ajani Cornelius OT Unknown Minimal
Out DeMarvion Overshown ILB Unknown Minimal
Out Decobie Durant CB Unknown Minimal
Out Kelvin Gilliam DT Triceps Minimal
Out Malik Hooker FS Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

Form: DAL beat WAS 37-20 last out; BAL lost 17-24 to NO.
H2H: BAL won last meeting 28-25 at Dallas in 2024.
Line moved DAL 3.0 to 3.5, toward Baltimore; total flat at 52.5.

BAL last 5

W 34-31 @ DALL 17-24 vs NOW 41-23 @ INDL 24-26 @ PITW 41-24 @ GB

DAL last 5

L 31-34 vs BALW 37-20 vs WASL 20-28 @ NYGL 17-34 @ NYGW 30-23 @ WAS

Head-to-head

Sep 27, 2026 BAL 34 at DAL 31
Sep 22, 2024 BAL 28 at DAL 25

Watch list

Zay Flowers hamstring status; WR1 out lifts Bateman and Andrews targets.
Ronnie Stanley toe and John Simpson; interior line affects Henry and Lamar.
Line at BAL -3.5; further move confirms sharp Ravens support.

Week 3 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

ATL @ GB