Archived Week 3 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville Final

New England Patriots

1-1 · 17-4 last season

Final6

At JAX -2.5 Total 45.5 JAX covered · Under

Jacksonville Jaguars

1-1 · 13-5 last season

Final35

Line movement open Sep 22 JAX spread -2.5 -2.5 no move Total 45.5 45.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Pass · 3/10

JAX -2.5 with both QBs walled in: NE pass defense #1, Jacksonville run defense #1.

SidePASSimplied margin 2.5 exactly matches spread with no line movement.

TotalBET UNDER 45.5NE #2 points allowed and both backs face top-7 run fronts.

Best bet

Under 45.5: two elite run defenses and NE's #1 pass unit cap both offenses.

Quick hits

JAX -2.5, total 45.5, implied NE 21.5 JAX 24.0.
Low-to-balanced: NE allows fewest pass yards (#1), JAX allows fewest rush yards (#1).
Parker Washington vs NE #12 WR defense is the cleanest edge on the board.
JAX favored, both backs squeezed, expect efficient short passing over volume rushing.
Meyers (thumb) questionable thins Jacksonville receiving depth if he sits.

Key matchups

Parker Washington vs NE #12 WR: 29.1 fpa, bad, softest home spot, lean up.
Romeo Doubs vs JAX #17 WR: 31.1 fpa, neutral, most usable NE pass-catcher.
Bhayshul Tuten vs NE #7 RB: 18.3 fpa, tough, run lanes clogged.
Rhamondre Stevenson vs JAX #5 RB: 18.2 fpa, tough, avoid the ground game.
Trevor Lawrence vs NE #3 QB: 13.6 fpa, tough, capped ceiling.
Drake Maye vs JAX #12 QB: 16.1 fpa, neutral, streaming range only.

NE skill positions vs JAX defense

#5/32

15.0 fpa

Avoid

#4/32

17.6 fpa

Avoid

#17/32

31.5 fpa

Average

#6/32

11.3 fpa

Avoid

JAX skill positions vs NE defense

#4/32

14.6 fpa

Avoid

#8/32

19.9 fpa

Avoid

#16/32

31.0 fpa

Average

#4/32

10.5 fpa

Avoid

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

Both offenses mid-pace, NE 61 plays (#17), JAX 62 (#14); pass rates 49% and 52%.
JAX leads narrowly, both lean pass as elite run fronts stall carries.
Points come from red zone, not chunk yards: implied 21.5 and 24.0.

Projected points (market implied)

NE21.5

JAX24.0

Offense profile

NERank of 32JAX

25.4 #11 Pts / G 28.3 #5

244.5 #8 Pass yds / G 232.3 #16

128.0 #7 Rush yds / G 113.5 #18

61.4 #16 Plays / G 62.2 #14

49% Pass rate 52%

1.6 Pass TD / G 1.9

1.1 Rush TD / G 1.2

3.1 Sacks taken / G 2.4

0.8 INT thrown / G 0.7

Defense profile

NERank of 32JAX

17.0 #2 Pts allowed / G 19.3 #8

189.1 #1 Pass yds allowed 237.2 #18

106.1 #8 Rush yds allowed 86.7 #1

2.2 Sacks / G 1.9

0.7 INT / G 1.1

1.3 Pass TD allowed 1.3

0.5 Rush TD allowed 0.8

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-28, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-27 13:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

86°F

feels 82°

Wind

4 mph W

gusts 4 mph

Rain

0.00 in

Humidity

23%

Overcast, 85F, wind 3 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

F, wind 4 mph, rain 9%: no weather factor.
Passing and kicking unaffected, no total or DFS adjustment.

DFS

Stack Trevor Lawrence ($5700) with Parker Washington ($6000) against NE #12 WR.
Value: DeMario Douglas $3700, 2.15x, cheap NE slot access.
Fade Rhamondre Stevenson $5400, 1.91x, into JAX #5 run defense.
Contrarian: Romeo Doubs $5100 vs #17 WR is under-owned NE upside.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Parker Washington - receiving yards 66.5 - lean over - NE #12 WR, 29.1 fpa.
Trevor Lawrence - passing yards 228.5 - lean under - NE #1 pass defense, 190 allowed.
Bhayshul Tuten - rushing yards 53.5 - lean under - NE #7 RB, 105 rush allowed.
Rhamondre Stevenson - rushing yards 37.5 - lean under - JAX #1 run defense, 87 allowed.

All NE and JAX props with AI grades