Archived Week 3 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET · CBS · Caesars Superdome, New Orleans Indoor Final

Las Vegas Raiders

2-0 · 5-12 last season

Final35

At NO -3 Total 43.5 LV covered · Over

New Orleans Saints

1-1 · 7-10 last season

Final27

Line movement open Sep 22 NO spread -3 -3 no move Total 43.5 43.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Pass · 2/10

NO -3 at home with the #32 Raiders offense, yet the line has not budged off 43.5.

SideBET HOME -3LV offense ranks #32 in points and plays.

TotalPASSprojected total 43.4 sits on the 43.5 line.

Best bet

Tyler Shough at $5400 (3.54x) is the top value with a 19.1 projection versus a soft LV #11 QB matchup.

Quick hits

NO -3, total 43.5, implied LV 20.2 / NO 23.2.
Low-to-balanced scoring: LV offense ranks #32 in points and plays.
Chris Olave vs LV #8 WR defense is the swing spot, neutral tag.
Saints lead script, LV #31 pass and #32 rush struggle to keep pace.
Bowers questionable (knee) and Etienne questionable (hamstring) reshape both sides.

Key matchups

Ashton Jeanty vs NO #23 RB defense: 24.3 fpa, softest LV spot, favorable.
Kirk Cousins vs NO #5 QB defense: 14.6 fpa, toughest matchup on the board.
Juwan Johnson vs LV #3 TE defense: 10.3 fpa, tough, fade.
Chris Olave vs LV #8 WR defense: 28.7 fpa, avoid tag, neutral projection 17.5.
Tyler Shough vs LV #11 QB defense: 15.8 fpa, neutral, proj 19.1.
Brock Bowers vs NO #9 TE defense: 11.6 fpa, neutral but knee questionable.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
LV	Ashton Jeanty	RB	19.2	$7,100	NO #23 of 32	24.1	Favorable
LV	Kirk Cousins	QB	15.2	$4,800	NO #7 of 32	15.7	Tough
LV	Brock Bowers	TE	12.4	$6,600	NO #25 of 32	16.1	Favorable
LV	Tre Tucker	WR	9.4	$5,000	NO #5 of 32	27.5	Tough
NO	Tyler Shough	QB	19.4	$5,400	LV #17 of 32	17.4	Neutral
NO	Chris Olave	WR	18.9	$7,200	LV #10 of 32	28.9	Neutral
NO	Travis Etienne Jr.	RB	11.8	$5,800	LV #13 of 32	20.9	Neutral
NO	Juwan Johnson	TE	10.2	$3,700	LV #24 of 32	15.1	Favorable

LV skill positions vs NO defense

#7/32

15.7 fpa

Avoid

#23/32

24.1 fpa

Good

#5/32

27.5 fpa

Avoid

#25/32

16.1 fpa

Elite

NO skill positions vs LV defense

#17/32

17.4 fpa

Average

#13/32

20.9 fpa

Bad

#10/32

28.9 fpa

Bad

#24/32

15.1 fpa

Good

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

NO runs 64 plays (#9), 58% pass; LV crawls at 55 plays (#32).
Saints lead and stay balanced; Raiders trail, forced pass-heavy off 56% base.
Points favor NO: 23.2 implied vs 20.2, both TD rates modest under 1.5.

Projected points (market implied)

LV20.2

NO23.2

Offense profile

LVRank of 32NO

16.2 #31 Pts / G 20.0 #25

185.2 #30 Pass yds / G 253.6 #6

82.4 #32 Rush yds / G 94.1 #29

55.8 #32 Plays / G 64.2 #6

56% Pass rate 58%

1.5 Pass TD / G 1.4

0.3 Rush TD / G 0.6

3.4 Sacks taken / G 3.1

1.1 INT thrown / G 0.8

Defense profile

LVRank of 32NO

24.2 #19 Pts allowed / G 22.1 #11

211.8 #12 Pass yds allowed 198.2 #3

117.2 #16 Rush yds allowed 125.1 #20

2.4 Sacks / G 2.6

0.6 INT / G 0.6

1.4 Pass TD allowed 1.4

1.2 Rush TD allowed 0.8

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-28, 21 games per team.

Weather

Indoor: no weather factor. Caesars Superdome is a covered venue.

Indoor: no weather factor.

DFS

Stack Shough ($5400) with Olave ($7200), highest home ceiling pairing.
Value Devaughn Vele $4400 at 2.62x, proj 11.5 vs LV #8 WR.
Fade Juwan Johnson into LV #3 TE defense despite cheap $3700.
Contrarian Jeanty $7100, softest LV spot vs NO #23 RB in trailing scripts.

LV projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
RB	Ashton Jeanty	19.2	11.5 / 27.4	$7,100	2.71x	$7,700	#23
QB	Kirk Cousins	15.2	8.3 / 21.0	$4,800	3.17x	$6,800	#7
TE	Brock Bowers	12.4	5.6 / 20.3	$6,600	1.88x	$6,500	#25
WR	Tre Tucker	9.4	3.3 / 16.2	$5,000	1.89x	$5,800	#5
WR	Jalen Nailor	6.3	1.5 / 12.4	$3,700	1.71x	$5,100	#5
TE	Michael Mayer	5.2	1.6 / 11.0	$3,300	1.59x	$5,000	#25
WR	Jack Bech out	4.5	0.0 / 10.4	$3,500	1.29x	$5,000	#5

NO projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Tyler Shough	19.4	12.4 / 28.3	$5,400	3.59x	$7,500	#17
WR	Chris Olave	18.9	9.3 / 30.0	$7,200	2.62x	$8,100	#10
WR	Devaughn Vele	12.3	5.2 / 19.9	$4,400	2.80x	$5,700	#10
RB	Travis Etienne Jr. out	11.8	6.6 / 19.6	$5,800	2.03x	$6,800	#13
TE	Juwan Johnson	10.2	3.7 / 17.0	$3,700	2.77x	$5,200	#24
RB	Alvin Kamara	7.9	3.8 / 14.4	$4,800	1.65x	$5,500	#13
TE	Noah Fant	4.6	1.1 / 10.9	$3,200	1.44x	$4,600	#24

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Tyler Shough - passing yards 254.5 - lean over - proj 19.1, 254.5 line vs #11 D.
Chris Olave - receiving yards 76.5 - lean over - proj 17.5, LV #8 allows 28.7 fpa.
Juwan Johnson - receiving yards 35.5 - lean under - LV #3 TE defense, 10.3 fpa.
Ashton Jeanty - rushing yards 69.5 - lean over - NO #23 RB, 24.3 fpa.

All LV and NO props with AI grades