Archived Week 5 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET · NBC · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta Primetime Indoor Final

Baltimore Ravens

3-1 · 4-1 last season

Final30

At ATL -3.5 Total 43.5 BAL covered · Over

Atlanta Falcons

2-2 · 2-3 last season

Final23

Line movement open Oct 6 ATL spread -3 -3.5 0.5 Total 43.5 43.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 5/10

ATL -3.5 with Lamar Jackson flagged out, flipping Baltimore's 20.0 implied total into question.

SideBET HOME -3.5spread moved toward ATL and Lamar projected out caps BAL's 20.0.

TotalPASSprojected total 43.5 sits exactly on the line.

Best bet

Drake London over 80.5 receiving yards against Baltimore's #29-ranked WR defense allowing 38.1 fpa.

Quick hits

Market: ATL -3.5, total 43.5, implied BAL 20.0 / ATL 23.5.
Balanced-to-moderate scoring, 43.5 total, two run-first offenses ranked #4 and #2 rushing.
Drake London vs BAL #29 WR defense is the decisive edge, SMASH spot.
Script: ATL leads, run-heavy behind Bijan into BAL's #12 run defense.
Lamar Jackson's status (projected out, listed questionable-ankle) is the game-changer.

Key matchups

Drake London vs BAL: #29 of 32 vs WR, 38.1 fpa, SMASH ceiling.
Zay Flowers vs ATL: #28 of 32 vs WR, 37.9 fpa, SMASH if active.
Bijan Robinson vs BAL: #12 of 32 vs RB, 21.0 fpa, neutral but 23.4 proj.
Derrick Henry vs ATL: #6 of 32 vs RB, 48 rush yds allowed (#1), TOUGH.
Michael Penix vs BAL: #18 of 32 vs QB, 17.9 fpa, neutral.
Kyle Pitts vs BAL: #8 of 32 vs TE, 10.9 fpa, avoid, NEUTRAL.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
BAL	Tyler Huntley	QB	16.2	$4,800	ATL #24 of 32	19.4	Favorable
BAL	Derrick Henry	RB	15.7	$8,000	ATL #15 of 32	20.9	Neutral
BAL	Zay Flowers	WR	14.3	$7,000	ATL #29 of 32	38.5	Smash
BAL	Mark Andrews	TE	10.2	$4,000	ATL #17 of 32	13.0	Neutral
ATL	Bijan Robinson	RB	21.7	$8,700	BAL #11 of 32	20.2	Neutral
ATL	Drake London	WR	16.8	$6,700	BAL #28 of 32	38.2	Smash
ATL	Michael Penix Jr.	QB	14.5	$4,900	BAL #16 of 32	17.9	Neutral
ATL	Kyle Pitts Sr.	TE	5.8	$3,700	BAL #11 of 32	11.7	Neutral

BAL skill positions vs ATL defense

#24/32

19.4 fpa

Good

#15/32

20.9 fpa

Average

#29/32

38.5 fpa

Elite

#17/32

13.0 fpa

Average

ATL skill positions vs BAL defense

#16/32

17.9 fpa

Average

#11/32

20.2 fpa

Bad

#28/32

38.2 fpa

Elite

#11/32

11.7 fpa

Bad

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

ATL pass rate 42%, BAL 45%, both bottom-heavy pass volume, grind pace.
ATL favored, controls game on ground; BAL leans run even trailing.
Points from ATL's 23.5 implied; both offenses scored 2.0 rush TD per game.
[/MATCHUPS]
[SCRIPT]
ATL pass rate 42%, BAL 45%, both run-heavy, slow pace at 60-62 plays.
Favorite ATL dictates via Bijan; dog BAL leans Henry despite tough front.
Red zone: BAL 2.0 rush TD, ATL 2.0 rush TD, ground-score game.

Projected points (market implied)

BAL20.0

ATL23.5

Offense profile

BALRank of 32ATL

29.2 #6 Pts / G 23.8 #13

246.2 #14 Pass yds / G 208.8 #22

164.4 #3 Rush yds / G 166.8 #2

62.0 #16 Plays / G 62.0 #15

46% Pass rate 45%

1.6 Pass TD / G 0.8

1.8 Rush TD / G 1.6

2.2 Sacks taken / G 2.2

0.2 INT thrown / G 1.4

Defense profile

BALRank of 32ATL

23.8 #20 Pts allowed / G 24.4 #21

238.4 #19 Pass yds allowed 261.4 #26

102.0 #12 Rush yds allowed 80.2 #4

2.0 Sacks / G 2.2

0.6 INT / G 0.2

1.0 Pass TD allowed 1.8

1.2 Rush TD allowed 0.6

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 5 games per team.

Weather

Indoor: no weather factor. Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a covered venue.

Indoor: no weather factor.

DFS

Stack: Bijan Robinson plus Drake London, ATL's 23.5 total with two smash-neutral edges.
Value: Michael Penix $4900 (2.95x) vs BAL #18 QB, cheap stack glue.
Fade: Derrick Henry $8000 into ATL #6/#1 run defense, 79.5 rush line.
Contrarian: Zay Flowers $7000 vs #28 WR if foot clears, 30.3 ceiling.

BAL projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Tyler Huntley	16.2	9.5 / 22.4	$4,800	3.38x	$6,000	#24
RB	Derrick Henry	15.7	8.6 / 25.5	$8,000	1.96x	$9,200	#15
WR	Zay Flowers	14.3	7.7 / 24.8	$7,000	2.05x	$7,200	#29
TE	Mark Andrews	10.2	4.4 / 16.3	$4,000	2.55x	$5,200	#17
WR	Rashod Bateman	5.5	1.5 / 11.4	$4,100	1.33x	$5,800	#29
RB	Justice Hill	4.1	1.5 / 8.4	$4,200	0.98x	$4,700	#15
TE	Matt Hibner	3.4	0.0 / 8.2	$2,500	1.37x	$4,300	#17

ATL projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
RB	Bijan Robinson	21.7	13.8 / 32.2	$8,700	2.49x	$8,900	#11
WR	Drake London	16.8	7.7 / 28.4	$6,700	2.51x	$7,800	#28
QB	Michael Penix Jr. questionable	14.5	8.3 / 21.7	$4,900	2.96x	$6,800	#16
RB	Brian Robinson Jr.	7.4	3.5 / 14.7	$4,700	1.58x	$5,700	#11
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	5.8	1.3 / 11.8	$3,700	1.56x	$5,200	#11
WR	Jahan Dotson	4.8	0.0 / 11.8	$3,200	1.49x	$5,300	#28
TE	Austin Hooper	4.2	0.0 / 10.5	$2,500	1.66x	$4,400	#11

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Drake London - receiving yards 80.5 - lean over - vs BAL #29 WR, 15.1 proj.
Bijan Robinson - rushing yards 87.5 - lean over - RB1 23.4 proj, 181 team rush yds.
Derrick Henry - rushing yards 79.5 - lean under - ATL allows #1-fewest 48 rush yds.
Michael Penix - passing yards 218.5 - lean over - vs #18 QB, 192 team pass avg low though.

All BAL and ATL props with AI grades

Injuries

BAL 8 listed

Out Elijah Sarratt WR Unknown Severe
Out Lamar Jackson QB Unknown Severe
Out Skylar Thompson QB Unknown Severe
Out Aeneas Peebles DT Unknown Minimal
Out Andrew Vorhees G Foot Minimal
Out Cam Jurgens C Unknown Minimal
Out Trey Hendrickson OLB Unknown Minimal
Quest. Broderick Washington DT Ankle Minimal

ATL 8 listed

Out Cooper Rush QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Jack Strand QB Unknown Severe
Out A.J. Terrell CB Groin Minimal
Out Anterio Thompson DT Undisclosed Minimal
Out Christian Harris LB Unknown Minimal
Out Ethan Onianwa OT Unknown Minimal
Out Malcolm DeWalt IV CB Unknown Minimal
Out Robert Longerbeam CB Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

Form: ATL won last two by 21 and 11; BAL 3-1 but defense #20 pts allowed.
H2H: ATL 9 at BAL 17 (2022), low-scoring, Baltimore controlled.
Line moved ATL -3.0 to -3.5, sharp money toward home.

BAL last 5

W 30-23 @ ATLW 24-18 vs TENW 34-31 @ DALL 17-24 vs NOW 41-23 @ IND

ATL last 5

L 23-30 vs BALW 45-24 @ NOW 35-14 @ GBL 3-34 vs CARL 13-20 @ PIT

Head-to-head

Oct 11, 2026 BAL 30 at ATL 23
Dec 24, 2022 ATL 9 at BAL 17

Watch list

Lamar Jackson: projected out but listed questionable-ankle; confirm before locking BAL side.
Zay Flowers (foot, questionable): his status swings BAL's passing and the DFS stack.
Spread move -3.0 to -3.5: watch for further steam toward ATL at kickoff.
A.J. Terrell out (groin): boosts London and Flowers WR projections further.