Sun Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET · NBC · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Primetime Indoor Upcoming · Fri 8:20 PM
Baltimore Ravens
3-1 · 3-1 last season
Implied20.0
At
ATL -3.5 Total 43.5 Live line · BAL +144 · ATL -172
Atlanta Falcons
2-2 · 2-2 last season
Implied23.5
Line movement open Oct 6
ATL spread
-3 -3.5
0.5
Total
43.5 43.5
no move
FanDuel
BAL @ ATL: the angle lands Fri 8:20 PM
Lines, matchups, injuries and forecast below are live now.
Key matchups
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL |
Lamar Jackson | QB | 19.1 | $6,800 | ATL #24 of 32 | 18.4 | Favorable |
| BAL |
Derrick Henry | RB | 19.0 | $8,000 | ATL #5 of 32 | 19.0 | Tough |
| BAL |
Zay Flowers | WR | 16.9 | $7,000 | ATL #28 of 32 | 37.9 | Smash |
| BAL |
Mark Andrews | TE | 10.7 | $4,000 | ATL #18 of 32 | 13.6 | Neutral |
| ATL |
Bijan Robinson | RB | 23.4 | $8,700 | BAL #12 of 32 | 21.0 | Neutral |
| ATL |
Drake London | WR | 15.1 | $6,700 | BAL #29 of 32 | 38.1 | Smash |
| ATL |
Michael Penix Jr. | QB | 14.4 | $4,900 | BAL #18 of 32 | 17.9 | Neutral |
| ATL |
Kyle Pitts Sr. | TE | 5.5 | $3,700 | BAL #8 of 32 | 10.9 | Neutral |
BAL skill positions vs ATL defenseQB
#24/32
18.4 fpa
RB
#5/32
19.0 fpa
WR
#28/32
37.9 fpa
TE
#18/32
13.6 fpa
ATL skill positions vs BAL defenseQB
#18/32
17.9 fpa
RB
#12/32
21.0 fpa
WR
#29/32
38.1 fpa
TE
#8/32
10.9 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
Projected points (market implied)
BAL20.0
ATL23.5
Offense profile
BALRank of 32ATL
29.0
#7
Pts / G
24.0
#15
257.5
#11
Pass yds / G
192.5
#25
153.5
#4
Rush yds / G
181.0
#2
59.8
#19
Plays / G
61.5
#16
45%
Pass rate
42%
1.5
Pass TD / G
0.8
2.0
Rush TD / G
2.0
1.8
Sacks taken / G
2.0
0.2
INT thrown / G
1.5
Defense profile
BALRank of 32ATL
24.0
#19
Pts allowed / G
23.0
#15
229.5
#18
Pass yds allowed
276.5
#29
100.0
#10
Rush yds allowed
48.2
#1
1.8
Sacks / G
1.8
0.5
INT / G
0.2
1.0
Pass TD allowed
1.8
1.5
Rush TD allowed
0.5
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 4 games per team.
Weather
Indoor: no weather factor. Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a covered venue.
DFS
BAL projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Lamar Jackson questionable | 19.1 | 11.2 / 26.2 | $6,800 | 2.81x | $8,800 | #24 |
| RB | Derrick Henry | 19.0 | 9.5 / 27.3 | $8,000 | 2.38x | $9,400 | #5 |
| WR | Zay Flowers questionable | 16.9 | 9.0 / 30.3 | $7,000 | 2.41x | $7,200 | #28 |
| TE | Mark Andrews | 10.7 | 5.3 / 19.7 | $4,000 | 2.69x | $5,400 | #18 |
| WR | Rashod Bateman | 6.5 | 1.5 / 12.9 | $4,100 | 1.59x | $5,900 | #28 |
| RB | Justice Hill | 4.3 | 1.2 / 8.4 | $4,200 | 1.01x | $4,800 | #5 |
| TE | Matt Hibner | 3.9 | 0.0 / 9.9 | $2,500 | 1.54x | $4,300 | #18 |
ATL projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Bijan Robinson | 23.4 | 13.8 / 32.0 | $8,700 | 2.70x | $9,000 | #12 |
| WR | Drake London | 15.1 | 7.0 / 26.9 | $6,700 | 2.25x | $7,800 | #29 |
| QB | Michael Penix Jr. | 14.4 | 8.4 / 21.6 | $4,900 | 2.95x | $7,000 | #18 |
| RB | Brian Robinson Jr. | 9.1 | 3.7 / 15.9 | $4,700 | 1.94x | $5,700 | #12 |
| TE | Kyle Pitts Sr. | 5.5 | 1.3 / 11.4 | $3,700 | 1.49x | $5,200 | #8 |
| WR | Jahan Dotson | 4.6 | 0.0 / 11.7 | $3,200 | 1.44x | $5,400 | #29 |
| TE | Austin Hooper | 3.8 | 0.0 / 10.5 | $2,500 | 1.51x | $4,400 | #8 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Over | Book | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson RB ATL | Rush yds | 89.5 | 104.0 | -112 | BetOnline | #10 |
| Bijan Robinson RB ATL | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.9 | -120 | BetMGM | #17 |
| Bijan Robinson RB ATL | Rec yds | 27.5 | 25.3 | -112 | DraftKings | #17 |
| Derrick Henry RB BAL | Rush yds | 85.5 | 75.8 | -110 | DraftKings | #1 |
| Zay Flowers WR BAL | Receptions | 5.5 | 4.1 | +106 | BetRivers | #29 |
| Zay Flowers WR BAL | Rec yds | 69.5 | 81.1 | -112 | DraftKings | #29 |
| Drake London WR ATL | Receptions | 5.5 | 5.0 | +115 | BetMGM | #17 |
| Drake London WR ATL | Rec yds | 81.5 | 92.3 | -112 | DraftKings | #17 |
| Michael Penix Jr. QB ATL | Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.0 | +125 | BetMGM | #3 |
| Michael Penix Jr. QB ATL | Pass yds | 216.5 | 249.2 | -112 | DraftKings | #18 |
| Michael Penix Jr. QB ATL | Rush yds | 0.5 | – | -102 | FanDuel | #10 |
| Mark Andrews TE BAL | Receptions | 3.5 | 5.0 | -115 | BetMGM | #29 |
| Mark Andrews TE BAL | Rec yds | 29.5 | 41.1 | -114 | DraftKings | #29 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. RB ATL | Rush yds | 35.5 | 41.7 | -108 | DraftKings | #10 |
Best available over price per line. Opp rank = the defense's rank in that stat allowed (32 allows the most).
All BAL and ATL props with AI gradesInjuries
BAL 8 listed- Out Skylar Thompson QB Unknown Severe
- Quest. Lamar Jackson QB Unknown Moderate
- Quest. Andrew Vorhees G Foot Minimal
- Quest. Cam Jurgens C Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Chris Moore WR Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Marlon Humphrey CB Calf Minimal
- Quest. Ronnie Stanley T Toe Minimal
- Quest. Trey Hendrickson OLB Unknown Minimal
ATL 8 listed- IR Beaux Collins WR Undisclosed Severe
- IR Trey Sermon RB Unknown Severe
- Out A.J. Terrell CB Groin Minimal
- Out Anterio Thompson DT Undisclosed Minimal
- Quest. Jake Matthews T Groin Minimal
- Quest. Za'Darius Smith DE Concussion Minimal
- IR Cameron Williams OT Ankle Minimal
- IR Da'Shawn Hand DT Quadriceps Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
BAL last 5W 24-18 vs TENW 34-31 @ DALL 17-24 vs NOW 41-23 @ INDL 24-26 @ PIT
ATL last 5W 45-24 @ NOW 35-14 @ GBL 3-34 vs CARL 13-20 @ PITW 19-17 vs NO
Head-to-head
- Dec 24, 2022 ATL 9 at BAL 17
Week 5 slate
Swipe for all 15 games this week.
TB @ DAL
Thu 8:15 PM ET
DAL -8.5
O/U 48.5
Ready
PHI @ JAX
Sun 9:30 AM ET
JAX -7.5
O/U 41.5
Unlocks Fri 9:30 AM
CHI @ GB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -1.5
O/U 45.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
CIN @ MIA
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -6.5
O/U 43.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
CLE @ NYJ
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NYJ -1.5
O/U 39.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
HOU @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
HOU -7.5
O/U 37.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
IND @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
PIT -2.5
O/U 44.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
LV @ NE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NE -3.5
O/U 44.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
MIN @ NO
Sun 1:00 PM ET
MIN -1.5
O/U 42.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
NYG @ WAS
Sun 1:00 PM ET
WAS -3.5
O/U 42.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
DEN @ LAC
Sun 4:05 PM ET
DEN -3.5
O/U 42.5
Unlocks Fri 4:05 PM
DET @ ARI
Sun 4:25 PM ET
DET -5.5
O/U 54.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
SF @ SEA
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SEA -3
O/U 46.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
BAL @ ATL
Sun 8:20 PM ET
ATL -3.5
O/U 43.5
Unlocks Fri 8:20 PM
BUF @ LA
Mon 8:15 PM ET
LA -3.5
O/U 54.5
Unlocks Sat 8:15 PM