Archived Week 5 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · Gillette Stadium, New England
Final
Las Vegas Raiders
3-1 · 3-2 last season
Final17
At
NE -3.5 Total 45.5 NE covered · Over
New England Patriots
2-2 · 3-2 last season
Final45
Line movement open Oct 6
NE spread
-3.5 -3.5
no move
Total
45.5 45.5
no move
The angle, before kickoff
Pass · 2/10
NE -3.5 but model margin is exactly 3.5, a coinflip with a 44.5 total.
SidePASSmodel margin 3.5 equals NE -3.5 exactly, a coinflip.
TotalPASSprojected total sits right on 44.5.
Best bet
Hunter Henry over 3.5 receptions (+160) into LV's #20-ranked TE defense.
Quick hits
- NE -3.5, total 44.5, implied LV 20.5 and NE 24.0.
- Balanced, mid scoring; strong defenses, NE #7 points allowed and LV offense #7.
- Cousins vs NE #3 QB defense is the decisive, tough spot for Las Vegas.
- NE leads, run-leaning script; LV #30-ranked NE offense limits blowout upside.
- Jeanty questionable (RB1) and Stevenson questionable swing both backfields.
Key matchups
- Tre Tucker vs NE #20 WR: 32.8 fpa, favorable, cheapest LV pass exposure at $4800.
- Hunter Henry vs LV #20 TE: 14.1 fpa, favorable, value TE at $3700.
- Kirk Cousins vs NE #3 QB: 15.2 fpa, tough, fade the ceiling.
- Brock Bowers vs NE #6 TE: 9.8 fpa, tough, elite talent into stingiest spot.
- Drake Maye vs LV #15 QB: 17.3 fpa, neutral, top home projection at 18.2.
- Ashton Jeanty vs NE #9 RB: 20.1 fpa, neutral, and questionable tag.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV |
Brock Bowers | TE | 15.7 | $7,000 | NE #16 of 32 | 12.5 | Neutral |
| LV |
Kirk Cousins | QB | 15.3 | $5,400 | NE #6 of 32 | 15.4 | Tough |
| LV |
Ashton Jeanty | RB | 14.6 | $7,200 | NE #16 of 32 | 21.1 | Neutral |
| LV |
Tre Tucker | WR | 8.3 | $4,800 | NE #12 of 32 | 30.9 | Neutral |
| NE |
Drake Maye | QB | 17.7 | $6,300 | LV #28 of 32 | 20.4 | Smash |
| NE |
Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 13.0 | $5,500 | LV #22 of 32 | 24.1 | Favorable |
| NE |
Romeo Doubs | WR | 12.0 | $5,000 | LV #19 of 32 | 33.7 | Neutral |
| NE |
Hunter Henry | TE | 10.4 | $3,700 | LV #25 of 32 | 16.0 | Favorable |
LV skill positions vs NE defenseQB
#6/32
15.4 fpa
RB
#16/32
21.1 fpa
WR
#12/32
30.9 fpa
TE
#16/32
12.5 fpa
NE skill positions vs LV defenseQB
#28/32
20.4 fpa
RB
#22/32
24.1 fpa
WR
#19/32
33.7 fpa
TE
#25/32
16.0 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
Projected points (market implied)
LV21.0
NE24.5
Offense profile
LVRank of 32NE
26.4
#9
Pts / G
22.0
#19
263.4
#8
Pass yds / G
254.8
#12
82.0
#28
Rush yds / G
127.2
#10
65.0
#8
Plays / G
63.8
#11
57%
Pass rate
51%
2.4
Pass TD / G
1.6
0.4
Rush TD / G
0.8
1.6
Sacks taken / G
2.2
0.8
INT thrown / G
1.4
Defense profile
LVRank of 32NE
25.8
#23
Pts allowed / G
18.8
#4
254.6
#25
Pass yds allowed
222.6
#10
140.6
#28
Rush yds allowed
90.8
#6
2.6
Sacks / G
2.2
0.8
INT / G
0.6
2.2
Pass TD allowed
1.2
1.2
Rush TD allowed
1.0
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 5 games per team.
Weather
At kickoff · 2026-10-11 12:00 local
Moderate impact
Conditions
Sunny
Temp
84°F
feels 93°
Wind
18 mph ENE
gusts 19 mph
Rain
8%
0.00 in
Humidity
76%
- Wind 17 mph: field goals past 45 and deep shots get harder
WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface
- Sunny, 84F, wind 11 mph ENE, minor long-kick impact only.
- No rain (8%), passing and totals essentially unaffected.
DFS
- Stack: Maye + Doubs ($6300/$5000), NE's top passing combo at home.
- Value: Hunter Henry $3700 (2.64x), favorable LV #20 TE spot.
- Fade: Bowers $7000 into NE #6 TE (9.8 fpa), pay-up risk.
- Contrarian: Tre Tucker $4800 vs NE #20 WR, cheap leverage off chalk Bowers.
LV projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | Brock Bowers | 15.7 | 7.8 / 26.1 | $7,000 | 2.25x | $7,800 | #16 |
| QB | Kirk Cousins | 15.3 | 8.7 / 22.3 | $5,400 | 2.84x | $7,100 | #6 |
| RB | Ashton Jeanty | 14.6 | 7.9 / 21.6 | $7,200 | 2.03x | $7,800 | #16 |
| RB | Mike Washington Jr. | 10.6 | 4.9 / 17.6 | $4,200 | 2.52x | $4,900 | #16 |
| WR | Tre Tucker | 8.3 | 3.0 / 16.1 | $4,800 | 1.74x | $5,700 | #12 |
| TE | Michael Mayer | 7.8 | 3.0 / 14.2 | $3,500 | 2.23x | $4,700 | #16 |
| WR | Cody White | 6.4 | 1.0 / 13.3 | $3,300 | 1.93x | $5,300 | #12 |
NE projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Drake Maye | 17.7 | 11.4 / 26.0 | $6,300 | 2.80x | $7,800 | #28 |
| RB | Rhamondre Stevenson | 13.0 | 6.7 / 18.9 | $5,500 | 2.37x | $5,900 | #22 |
| WR | Romeo Doubs | 12.0 | 5.5 / 21.2 | $5,000 | 2.39x | $6,000 | #19 |
| TE | Hunter Henry | 10.4 | 4.6 / 17.1 | $3,700 | 2.81x | $5,100 | #25 |
| RB | TreVeyon Henderson questionable | 9.0 | 4.5 / 16.5 | $5,000 | 1.80x | $5,800 | #22 |
| WR | Efton Chism III | 7.8 | 2.3 / 14.4 | $3,200 | 2.43x | $4,700 | #19 |
| WR | DeMario Douglas | 7.0 | 2.7 / 12.9 | $3,500 | 1.99x | $5,000 | #19 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Hunter Henry - receptions o3.5 (+160) - lean over - LV #20 TE, 9.8 proj.
- Tre Tucker - receiving yards o41.5 (-111) - lean over - NE #20 WR softness.
- Brock Bowers - receiving yards o75.5 (-114) - lean under - NE #6 TE, 9.8 fpa.
- Drake Maye - rushing yards o32.5 (-110) - lean over - 32.5 line matches dual-threat role.
Injuries
LV 8 listed- Out Aidan O'Connell QB Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Chris Collier RB Undisclosed Severe
- Out Corey Rucker WR Undisclosed Severe
- Out Jalen Nailor WR Unknown Severe
- Out Roman Hemby RB Unknown Severe
- Out Brennan Jackson OLB Unknown Minimal
- Out Dalton Johnson FS Unknown Minimal
- Out JJ Pegues DT Unknown Minimal
NE 8 listed- Out Behren Morton QB Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Myles Montgomery RB Unknown Severe
- Out Carlton Davis CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Channing Canada CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Christian Gonzalez CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Dametrious Crownover T Unknown Minimal
- Out Harold Landry III OLB Undisclosed Minimal
- Out Karon Prunty CB Unknown Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- LV 3-1 last four; NE just won 29-26 at BUF.
- H2H: LV won 20-13 last meeting (Sep 2025), split prior two.
- Spread static at NE -3.5; total dropped 45.5 to 44.5.
LV last 5L 17-45 @ NEL 27-30 vs KCW 35-27 @ NOW 26-14 @ LACW 27-13 vs MIA
NE last 5W 45-17 vs LVW 29-26 @ BUFL 6-35 @ JAXW 20-3 vs PITL 10-13 @ SEA
Head-to-head
- Oct 11, 2026 LV 17 at NE 45
- Sep 7, 2025 LV 20 at NE 13
- Oct 15, 2023 NE 17 at LV 21
Watch list
- Ashton Jeanty (questionable): his status reshapes LV's backfield and Tucker/Bowers volume.
- Rhamondre Stevenson (questionable, knee): if out, Henderson absorbs the carries.
- Mack Hollins and NE corners (questionable): secondary health affects LV WR values.
- Total line: already dropped 1, watch for further move toward under.
Week 5 slate
All 15 games this week.
TB @ DAL
Thu 8:15 PM ET
DAL -7.5
O/U 48.5
Final
PHI @ JAX
Sun 9:30 AM ET
JAX -2.5
O/U 45.5
Final
CHI @ GB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -1.5
O/U 46.5
Final
CIN @ MIA
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -7
O/U 44.5
Final
CLE @ NYJ
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NYJ -2.5
O/U 38.5
Final
HOU @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
HOU -6.5
O/U 37.5
Final
IND @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
PIT -2.5
O/U 42.5
Final
LV @ NE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NE -3.5
O/U 45.5
Final
MIN @ NO
Sun 1:00 PM ET
MIN -1.5
O/U 42.5
Final
NYG @ WAS
Sun 1:00 PM ET
WAS -3.5
O/U 41.5
Final
DEN @ LAC
Sun 4:05 PM ET
DEN -3.5
O/U 42.5
Final
DET @ ARI
Sun 4:25 PM ET
DET -5.5
O/U 54.5
Final
SF @ SEA
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SEA -3
O/U 46.5
Final
BAL @ ATL
Sun 8:20 PM ET
ATL -3.5
O/U 43.5
Final
BUF @ LA
Mon 8:15 PM ET
BUF -1.5
O/U 51.5
Kicked off