Archived Week 5 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · FOX · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Final

Cincinnati Bengals

2-2 · 3-2 last season

Final31

At CIN -7 Total 44.5 Push · Over

Miami Dolphins

0-4 · 0-5 last season

Final24

Line movement open Oct 6 MIA spread +7.5 +7 0.5 Total 42.5 44.5 2.0

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 4/10

CIN -7 at 0-4 Miami, and Chase Brown draws the NFL's #29 run defense for 16.7 projected.

SideBET AWAY -7CIN implied 25.2 against a #32 offense scoring 11.5.

TotalPASSprojected 43.4 sits right on the 43.5 line.

Best bet

Chase Brown over 67.5 rushing yards against Miami's #29 run defense, with Chase's injury funneling volume.

Quick hits

CIN -7, total 43.5, implied CIN 25.2 / MIA 18.2.
Balanced-to-low: Miami scores 11.5 ppg (#32) and runs just 52 plays (#32).
Chase Brown vs MIA #29 RB defense (26.5 fpa) is the decisive edge.
CIN leads and leans pass (65% rate, #5 passing); MIA chases, script-cramped.
Chase (concussion) and Higgins (groin) both questionable flips WR usage.

Key matchups

Chase Brown vs MIA #29 RB defense: 26.5 fpa, 16.7 proj, SMASH.
Joe Burrow vs MIA #27 QB defense: 18.7 fpa, 19.1 proj, SMASH.
Mike Gesicki vs MIA #29 TE defense: 17.9 fpa, 7.4 proj, soft spot.
Greg Dulcich vs CIN #31 TE defense: 19.9 fpa, 6.1 proj, SMASH.
Malik Washington vs CIN #3 WR defense: 26.6 fpa, 12.6 proj, TOUGH.
Ja'Marr Chase vs MIA #4 WR defense: 26.9 fpa, 16.1 proj, TOUGH if active.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
CIN	Joe Burrow	QB	18.9	$6,900	MIA #25 of 32	19.6	Favorable
CIN	Chase Brown	RB	17.4	$6,900	MIA #27 of 32	25.5	Smash
CIN	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	16.7	$8,100	MIA #5 of 32	26.9	Tough
CIN	Mike Gesicki	TE	8.7	$4,100	MIA #29 of 32	19.3	Smash
MIA	Malik Willis	QB	14.9	$4,600	CIN #23 of 32	18.9	Favorable
MIA	Malik Washington	WR	11.3	$4,600	CIN #6 of 32	27.2	Tough
MIA	Ollie Gordon II	RB	10.0	$5,300	CIN #20 of 32	22.9	Favorable
MIA	Greg Dulcich	TE	7.0	$3,100	CIN #31 of 32	19.6	Smash

CIN skill positions vs MIA defense

#25/32

19.6 fpa

Elite

#27/32

25.5 fpa

Elite

#5/32

26.9 fpa

Avoid

#29/32

19.3 fpa

Elite

MIA skill positions vs CIN defense

#23/32

18.9 fpa

Good

#20/32

22.9 fpa

Good

#6/32

27.2 fpa

Avoid

#31/32

19.6 fpa

Elite

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

CIN plays 62 plays (#14) at 65% pass; Miami's 52 plays (#32) cap volume.
Favorite CIN scripts ahead early, leaning run with Brown; MIA forced to throw while down.
Points skew CIN: 25.2 implied vs 18.2, Burrow 1.5 pass TD line versus Willis 0.5.

Projected points (market implied)

CIN25.8

MIA18.8

Offense profile

CINRank of 32MIA

25.6 #10 Pts / G 14.0 #31

273.2 #7 Pass yds / G 170.2 #32

82.8 #26 Rush yds / G 126.6 #12

62.4 #14 Plays / G 54.8 #31

62% Pass rate 50%

2.2 Pass TD / G 0.4

0.4 Rush TD / G 1.0

1.8 Sacks taken / G 2.8

0.6 INT thrown / G 0.8

Defense profile

CINRank of 32MIA

21.8 #11 Pts allowed / G 26.4 #24

245.0 #22 Pass yds allowed 227.8 #11

123.0 #23 Rush yds allowed 110.6 #16

3.4 Sacks / G 0.8

0.6 INT / G 0.6

1.0 Pass TD allowed 2.2

1.0 Rush TD allowed 0.8

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 5 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-10-11 13:00 local Low impact

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

88°F

feels 95°

Wind

12 mph SE

gusts 12 mph

Rain

0.00 in

Humidity

62%

Wind 12 mph: minor, mostly on long kicks

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

F, wind 11 mph gusting 20, rain chance 13%, precip 0.00.
Minor impact, mostly long field goals; passing and total largely unaffected.

DFS

Stack: Burrow with Brown, both SMASH spots at $6900 each.
Value: Malik Willis $4600 (2.98x) if forced to throw as home dog.
Fade: Ja'Marr Chase $8100 (1.99x) questionable into #4 WR defense.
Contrarian: Greg Dulcich $3100 vs CIN #31 TE defense, punt leverage.

CIN projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Joe Burrow	18.9	12.6 / 28.9	$6,900	2.73x	$8,700	#25
RB	Chase Brown	17.4	9.9 / 26.1	$6,900	2.52x	$8,000	#27
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	16.7	8.3 / 27.9	$8,100	2.06x	$8,900	#5
WR	Tee Higgins	12.8	5.6 / 23.2	$7,100	1.80x	$7,500	#5
TE	Mike Gesicki	8.7	2.5 / 16.0	$4,100	2.13x	$5,200	#29
WR	Dohnte Meyers	5.5	1.4 / 11.5	$3,500	1.57x	$5,400	#5
RB	Samaje Perine	5.5	1.9 / 10.3	$4,400	1.24x	$5,200	#27

MIA projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Malik Willis	14.9	9.4 / 22.5	$4,600	3.24x	$6,600	#23
WR	Malik Washington	11.3	5.7 / 20.4	$4,600	2.46x	$5,700	#6
RB	Ollie Gordon II	10.0	5.0 / 16.3	$5,300	1.89x	$6,100	#20
WR	Chris Bell	8.4	2.6 / 14.7	$3,600	2.34x	$5,100	#6
TE	Greg Dulcich	7.0	2.8 / 13.2	$3,100	2.25x	$4,800	#31
WR	Kevin Coleman Jr.	5.3	1.4 / 10.8	$3,000	1.77x	$4,800	#6
WR	Ryan Miller	3.9	0.0 / 10.2	$3,000	1.29x	$4,200	#6

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Chase Brown - rushing yards 67.5 - OVER - 16.7 proj vs #29 run defense.
Joe Burrow - passing TDs 1.5 - OVER - 19.1 proj vs #27 QB defense.
Greg Dulcich - receiving yards 26.5 - OVER - vs CIN #31 TE defense.
Malik Washington - receptions 4.5 - lean OVER - 12.6 proj target hog despite tough matchup.

All CIN and MIA props with AI grades