Archived Week 5 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · FOX · Lambeau Field, Green Bay
Division Final
Chicago Bears
3-1 · 3-2 last season
Final7
At
CHI -1.5 Total 46.5 GB covered · Under
Green Bay Packers
2-2 · 3-2 last season
Final31
Line movement open Oct 6
GB spread
+2.5 +1.5
1.0
Total
45.5 46.5
1.0
The angle, before kickoff
Pass · 3/10
Swift into GB's 28th-ranked run defense (26.3 fpa) is the game's cleanest smash spot.
SideBET HOME ML GB +106value as dog with line moved against them.
TotalBET UNDER 45.5GB's #28 offense meets CHI's #4 scoring defense.
Best bet
D'Andre Swift over 84.5 rushing yards: #1 rush offense into GB's 28th-ranked run defense with Jacobs out.
Quick hits
- CHI -1.5, total 45.5, implied CHI 23.5 / GB 22.0.
- Balanced-to-low: GB's 28th-ranked offense (18.2 pts) drags a 45.5 total.
- CHI's #1 rush offense (196 yds) vs GB's #28 run defense (139 allowed).
- CHI leads and grinds (45% pass rate, #1 plays); GB trails and throws (68%).
- Caleb Williams out means Bagent faces GB's tough #7 QB defense.
Key matchups
- Swift vs GB RB defense: 26.3 fpa, #28, SMASH with Jacobs out.
- Bagent vs GB QB defense: 16.0 fpa, #7, TOUGH under center.
- Kraft vs CHI TE defense: 9.6 fpa, #4, TOUGH matchup capped.
- Love vs CHI QB defense: 18.1 fpa, #21, FAVORABLE for the dog.
- Watson vs CHI WR defense: 31.0 fpa, #13, NEUTRAL but top GB option.
- Burden vs GB WR defense: 32.8 fpa, #19, NEUTRAL value piece.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI |
D'Andre Swift | RB | 19.9 | $6,200 | GB #29 of 32 | 26.6 | Smash |
| CHI |
Tyson Bagent | QB | 16.4 | $4,700 | GB #2 of 32 | 14.5 | Tough |
| CHI |
Luther Burden III | WR | 13.6 | $4,900 | GB #15 of 32 | 31.5 | Neutral |
| CHI |
Colston Loveland | TE | 8.9 | $4,600 | GB #7 of 32 | 9.9 | Tough |
| GB |
Jordan Love | QB | 18.7 | $5,700 | CHI #19 of 32 | 18.1 | Neutral |
| GB |
Christian Watson | WR | 15.2 | $6,400 | CHI #21 of 32 | 34.0 | Favorable |
| GB |
Tucker Kraft | TE | 10.8 | $4,700 | CHI #4 of 32 | 9.5 | Tough |
| GB |
MarShawn Lloyd | RB | 10.6 | $4,800 | CHI #6 of 32 | 19.4 | Tough |
CHI skill positions vs GB defenseQB
#2/32
14.5 fpa
RB
#29/32
26.6 fpa
WR
#15/32
31.5 fpa
TE
#7/32
9.9 fpa
GB skill positions vs CHI defenseQB
#19/32
18.1 fpa
RB
#6/32
19.4 fpa
WR
#21/32
34.0 fpa
TE
#4/32
9.5 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- CHI runs it: 74 plays (#1), 45% pass rate, 196 rush yds (#1).
- GB chases: 68% pass rate, #32 rushing, Jacobs out forces more Love dropbacks.
- Points lean CHI 23.5 implied; GB's #28 scoring offense caps upside.
Projected points (market implied)
CHI24.0
GB22.5
Offense profile
CHIRank of 32GB
23.8
#14
Pts / G
20.8
#24
235.4
#17
Pass yds / G
281.6
#4
173.2
#1
Rush yds / G
60.4
#32
73.2
#1
Plays / G
58.8
#25
48%
Pass rate
65%
0.8
Pass TD / G
2.0
2.0
Rush TD / G
0.4
2.2
Sacks taken / G
2.0
1.0
INT thrown / G
0.6
Defense profile
CHIRank of 32GB
19.2
#5
Pts allowed / G
22.4
#16
228.6
#13
Pass yds allowed
200.6
#5
96.0
#9
Rush yds allowed
127.6
#25
2.4
Sacks / G
2.8
0.6
INT / G
1.4
1.2
Pass TD allowed
1.2
1.0
Rush TD allowed
1.6
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 5 games per team.
Weather
At kickoff · 2026-10-11 12:00 local
Moderate impact
Conditions
Sunny
Temp
73°F
feels 65°
Wind
16 mph SSW
gusts 23 mph
Rain
1%
0.00 in
Humidity
47%
- Wind 16 mph: field goals past 45 and deep shots get harder
WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface
- Wind 14 mph SSW, gusts 20, minor impact on long kicks only.
- Sunny 72F, 1% rain, no passing or total suppression.
DFS
- Stack Love plus Watson against CHI's #13 WR defense for GB upside.
- Value: Burden $4900 at 2.64x in a neutral WR spot.
- Fade: Kraft $4700 into CHI's #4 TE defense (9.6 fpa).
- Contrarian: Love $5700 at 3.29x, dog QB with 25.8 ceiling.
CHI projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | D'Andre Swift | 19.9 | 10.6 / 28.9 | $6,200 | 3.21x | $6,500 | #29 |
| QB | Tyson Bagent | 16.4 | 9.4 / 23.6 | $4,700 | 3.48x | $6,700 | #2 |
| WR | Luther Burden III | 13.6 | 6.0 / 21.5 | $4,900 | 2.78x | $5,900 | #15 |
| WR | Rome Odunze | 9.4 | 3.2 / 16.3 | $4,700 | 1.99x | $6,200 | #15 |
| TE | Colston Loveland | 8.9 | 3.6 / 15.8 | $4,600 | 1.93x | $5,700 | #7 |
| WR | Kalif Raymond | 8.4 | 3.7 / 15.8 | $3,900 | 2.16x | $5,100 | #15 |
| RB | Roschon Johnson | 3.7 | 0.9 / 8.9 | $4,200 | 0.88x | $4,500 | #29 |
GB projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jordan Love | 18.7 | 10.6 / 25.2 | $5,700 | 3.28x | $7,400 | #19 |
| WR | Christian Watson | 15.2 | 7.0 / 26.2 | $6,400 | 2.38x | $7,000 | #21 |
| WR | Matthew Golden | 11.9 | 6.0 / 22.3 | $5,700 | 2.09x | $6,300 | #21 |
| TE | Tucker Kraft | 10.8 | 5.3 / 19.8 | $4,700 | 2.30x | $5,600 | #4 |
| RB | MarShawn Lloyd | 10.6 | 5.4 / 17.4 | $4,800 | 2.20x | $5,500 | #6 |
| RB | Kaleb Johnson | 6.9 | 2.8 / 12.9 | $4,600 | 1.49x | $5,500 | #6 |
| WR | Skyy Moore questionable | 3.7 | 0.0 / 9.2 | $3,200 | 1.15x | $4,900 | #21 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- D'Andre Swift - rushing yards 84.5 - OVER - #28 run defense, Jacobs out.
- Jordan Love - passing yards 236.5 - OVER - #21 QB matchup, chase script.
- Tucker Kraft - receiving yards 50.5 - UNDER - CHI's #4 TE defense.
- Christian Watson - receptions 4.5 - OVER - top target at 15.4 projection.
Injuries
CHI 8 listed- Out Caleb Williams QB Unknown Severe
- Out Kyle Monangai RB Unknown Severe
- Out Anthony Johnson Jr. FS Unknown Minimal
- Out Dallis Flowers CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Jamree Kromah DE Unknown Minimal
- Out Jayden Loving DT Unknown Minimal
- Out Jonathan Garvin DE Unknown Minimal
- Out Keyshaun Elliott LB Unknown Minimal
GB 8 listed- Out Josh Jacobs RB Personal Severe
- Out Aaron Banks G Toe Minimal
- Out Anthony Campbell DT Ankle Minimal
- Out Donovan Jennings G Unknown Minimal
- Out Jacob Monk C Quad Minimal
- Out Javon Hargrave DE Unknown Minimal
- Out Johnathan Baldwin FS Unknown Minimal
- Out Jordon Riley DT Unknown Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- CHI 3-1, GB 2-2; GB has lost 3 of last 5.
- H2H: CHI won all three recent meetings (31-27, 22-16, 28-21 GB win reversed note).
- Line moved 1 point toward Chicago, from GB favored to CHI -1.5.
CHI last 5L 7-31 @ GBW 23-12 vs NYJW 27-7 vs PHIL 3-9 vs MINW 59-37 @ CAR
GB last 5W 31-7 vs CHIW 17-14 @ TBL 14-35 vs ATLW 20-17 @ NYJL 22-39 @ MIN
Head-to-head
- Oct 11, 2026 CHI 7 at GB 31
- Jan 10, 2026 GB 27 at CHI 31
- Dec 20, 2025 GB 16 at CHI 22
Watch list
- Kyle Monangai turf toe (Q): his status shifts Swift's workload and value.
- Chris Brooks ankle (Q): confirms GB's thin backfield behind Lloyd with Jacobs out.
- Line at CHI -1.5: watch for further move after the 1-point shift.
Week 5 slate
All 15 games this week.
TB @ DAL
Thu 8:15 PM ET
DAL -7.5
O/U 48.5
Final
PHI @ JAX
Sun 9:30 AM ET
JAX -2.5
O/U 45.5
Final
CHI @ GB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -1.5
O/U 46.5
Final
CIN @ MIA
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -7
O/U 44.5
Final
CLE @ NYJ
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NYJ -2.5
O/U 38.5
Final
HOU @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
HOU -6.5
O/U 37.5
Final
IND @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
PIT -2.5
O/U 42.5
Final
LV @ NE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NE -3.5
O/U 45.5
Final
MIN @ NO
Sun 1:00 PM ET
MIN -1.5
O/U 42.5
Final
NYG @ WAS
Sun 1:00 PM ET
WAS -3.5
O/U 41.5
Final
DEN @ LAC
Sun 4:05 PM ET
DEN -3.5
O/U 42.5
Final
DET @ ARI
Sun 4:25 PM ET
DET -5.5
O/U 54.5
Final
SF @ SEA
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SEA -3
O/U 46.5
Final
BAL @ ATL
Sun 8:20 PM ET
ATL -3.5
O/U 43.5
Final
BUF @ LA
Mon 8:15 PM ET
BUF -1.5
O/U 51.5
Kicked off