Archived Week 5 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET · FOX · Lumen Field, Seattle Division Final

San Francisco 49ers

4-0 · 5-0 last season

Final32

At SEA -3 Total 46.5 SF covered · Over

Seattle Seahawks

3-1 · 3-2 last season

Final29

Line movement open Oct 6 SEA spread -3 -3 no move Total 47.5 46.5 1.0

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 5/10

SEA -3 at home with a 24.8 implied total, and SF's passing attack walks into the NFL's #1 WR and #2 QB defense.

SideBET HOME -3SEA home favorite with SF facing #1 WR and #2 QB defenses.

TotalPASSimplied 46.6 sits right on the 46.5 line, no edge.

Best bet

Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 97.5 receiving yards, his 23.3 projection tops the slate against a SF secondary trending down.

Quick hits

Market: SEA -3, total 46.5, implied SF 21.8 / SEA 24.8.
Balanced scoring: two top-5 scoring defenses cap both sides near 46.
Decisive spot: SF pass game vs SEA #2 QB, #1 WR defense is brutal.
Script: SEA leads narrowly, both run-leaning (SF 49% pass, SEA 51%).
Swing factor: McCaffrey workload if SF must chase; weather is a non-issue.

Key matchups

Emanuel Wilson vs SF #25 RB (24.7 fpa): softest spot, favorable at $5300.
JSN vs SF #10 WR (29.8 fpa, trend down): proj 23.3, usable despite rank.
Brock Purdy vs SEA #2 QB (14.0 fpa): toughest, capped at 16.7 proj.
Mike Evans vs SEA #1 WR (23.5 fpa): avoid, just 14.0 proj on $6500.
McCaffrey vs SEA #10 RB (20.1 fpa): neutral, still 20.7-point floor anchor.
Kittle vs SEA #12 TE (12.4 fpa): neutral, 15.3 proj and great value.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
SF	Christian McCaffrey	RB	21.4	$8,200	SEA #10 of 32	20.1	Neutral
SF	Brock Purdy	QB	18.0	$6,500	SEA #3 of 32	14.5	Tough
SF	George Kittle	TE	14.9	$5,200	SEA #12 of 32	11.7	Neutral
SF	Mike Evans	WR	12.7	$6,500	SEA #3 of 32	25.7	Tough
SEA	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	23.1	$8,800	SF #11 of 32	30.7	Neutral
SEA	Sam Darnold	QB	15.5	$5,800	SF #10 of 32	16.1	Neutral
SEA	Emanuel Wilson	RB	15.4	$5,300	SF #23 of 32	24.2	Favorable
SEA	AJ Barner	TE	6.5	$3,200	SF #13 of 32	11.8	Neutral

SF skill positions vs SEA defense

#3/32

14.5 fpa

Avoid

#10/32

20.1 fpa

Bad

#3/32

25.7 fpa

Avoid

#12/32

11.7 fpa

Bad

SEA skill positions vs SF defense

#10/32

16.1 fpa

Bad

#23/32

24.2 fpa

Good

#11/32

30.7 fpa

Bad

#13/32

11.8 fpa

Bad

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

Both run-leaning: SF 49% pass, SEA 51%, slow 57-59 plays per game.
SEA leads as favorite; SF leans McCaffrey ground game against #2 pass D.
Points track implied totals 24.8 / 21.8; SEA red zone edge via Wilson vs #25 RB.

Projected points (market implied)

SF21.8

SEA24.8

Offense profile

SFRank of 32SEA

30.8 #3 Pts / G 26.8 #8

239.2 #15 Pass yds / G 238.2 #16

128.6 #8 Rush yds / G 106.0 #17

56.8 #30 Plays / G 59.4 #23

51% Pass rate 51%

2.6 Pass TD / G 2.2

1.2 Rush TD / G 0.8

0.6 Sacks taken / G 2.2

0.4 INT thrown / G 1.0

Defense profile

SFRank of 32SEA

18.6 #3 Pts allowed / G 21.0 #9

211.4 #8 Pass yds allowed 166.8 #2

97.6 #10 Rush yds allowed 100.4 #11

2.2 Sacks / G 2.8

0.6 INT / G 1.4

1.0 Pass TD allowed 1.6

0.6 Rush TD allowed 0.4

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 5 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-10-11 13:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

58°F

feels 50°

Wind

8 mph N

gusts 10 mph

Rain

0.00 in

Humidity

41%

Sunny, 57F, wind 8 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Sunny, 58F, wind 7 mph: no weather factor, passing and kicking unaffected.
Clean conditions support full projections on both sides.

DFS

Stack: JSN ($8800) with Darnold ($5800) into SF #10 WR, trending down.
Value: Kittle $5200 at 2.94x, 15.3 proj in neutral TE matchup.
Fade: Mike Evans $6500 vs SEA #1 WR defense, only 2.16x.
Contrarian: Wilson $5300 vs SF #25 RB, best rush matchup on the slate.

SF projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
RB	Christian McCaffrey	21.4	12.3 / 29.8	$8,200	2.60x	$8,400	#10
QB	Brock Purdy	18.0	11.3 / 26.4	$6,500	2.76x	$8,300	#3
TE	George Kittle	14.9	6.7 / 23.5	$5,200	2.86x	$6,700	#12
WR	Mike Evans	12.7	6.0 / 22.4	$6,500	1.95x	$7,100	#3
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr. out	11.6	5.2 / 18.6	$5,500	2.11x	$6,900	#3
RB	Kaelon Black	3.3	1.1 / 8.0	$4,700	0.70x	$5,000	#10
WR	Jordan Watkins	2.6	0.0 / 7.5	$3,000	0.87x	$5,100	#3

SEA projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba questionable	23.1	11.6 / 33.5	$8,800	2.62x	$9,300	#11
QB	Sam Darnold	15.5	9.9 / 24.1	$5,800	2.67x	$7,300	#10
RB	Emanuel Wilson	15.4	7.6 / 22.3	$5,300	2.90x	$6,800	#23
RB	George Holani	7.1	3.0 / 11.8	$4,500	1.59x	$5,000	#23
WR	Rashid Shaheed	7.1	1.9 / 13.7	$4,000	1.78x	$5,000	#11
WR	Cooper Kupp	6.6	1.6 / 12.5	$3,800	1.74x	$5,300	#11
TE	AJ Barner	6.5	2.3 / 13.3	$3,200	2.04x	$4,800	#13

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Jaxon Smith-Njigba - receiving yards 97.5 - lean over - 23.3 proj leads all players.
Emanuel Wilson - rushing yards 64.5 - lean over - faces SF #25 RB defense.
George Kittle - receiving yards 55.5 - lean over - 15.3 proj, neutral #12 TE spot.
Mike Evans - receiving yards 49.5 - lean under - SEA #1 WR defense, 14.0 proj.

All SF and SEA props with AI grades

Injuries

SF 8 listed

Out Isaac Guerendo RB Pectoral Severe
Out Kurtis Rourke QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Ricky Pearsall WR Unknown Severe
Out Andrew Farmer DE Back Minimal
Out Enrique Cruz Jr. OT Unknown Minimal
Out James Thompson Jr. DT Unknown Minimal
Out Kyle Juszczyk FB Unknown Minimal
Out Marques Sigle FS Unknown Minimal

SEA 8 listed

Out Jalen Milroe QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Montorie Foster Jr. WR Unknown Severe
Out Nick Kallerup TE Unknown Severe
Out Robert Henry Jr. RB Unknown Severe
Out Chazz Surratt LB Unknown Minimal
Out Robbie Ouzts FB Unknown Minimal
Out Terrion Arnold CB Unknown Minimal
Quest. Drake Thomas ILB Ankle Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

Form: SF 4-0, SEA 3-1; SF offense ranks #2 at 30.5 ppg.
H2H: SEA won last two 41-6 and 13-3, SF scored 9 total.
Line: spread flat at SEA -3, total trimmed 47.5 to 46.5.

SF last 5

W 32-29 @ SEAW 24-14 vs DENW 36-30 vs ARIW 35-13 vs MIAW 27-7 @ LA

SEA last 5

L 29-32 vs SFW 30-23 vs LACL 31-33 @ WASW 31-7 @ ARIW 13-10 vs NE

Head-to-head

Oct 11, 2026 SF 32 at SEA 29
Jan 17, 2026 SF 6 at SEA 41
Jan 3, 2026 SEA 13 at SF 3

Watch list

George Holani questionable (ribs): confirms Wilson's full backfield workload.
Julian Neal questionable (hamstring): SEA CB depth affects JSN and Evans coverage.
Line move off SEA -3: any drift signals sharp lean before kickoff.