Archived Week 5 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · Nissan Stadium, Tennessee Division Final

Houston Texans

0-4 · 1-4 last season

Final26

At HOU -6.5 Total 37.5 HOU covered · Under

Tennessee Titans

0-4 · 0-5 last season

Final3

Line movement open Oct 6 TEN spread +7 +6.5 0.5 Total 37.5 37.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Pass · 2/10

HOU -7 with implied 22.2 to 15.2, but the model margin of 7.0 matches the spread exactly.

SidePASSmodel margin of 7.0 equals the spread exactly, no edge.

TotalPASSprojected total 37.4 sits right on the 37.5 line.

Best bet

Nico Collins over 76.5 receiving yards, 16.1 projection into TEN's #24 pass defense.

Quick hits

Market: HOU -7, total 37.5, implied HOU 22.2 and TEN 15.2.
Low scoring: TEN offense ranks #31 in points, #29 passing, total sits at 37.5.
Nico Collins vs TEN WR defense #24 is the cleanest edge on the board.
HOU leads and leans pass at 63 percent; TEN trails and must throw into HOU WR #26.
Carnell Tate questionable (back) swings TEN's only smash spot.

Key matchups

Carnell Tate vs HOU WR #26 of 32: 36.3 fpa, elite, SMASH if active.
Nico Collins vs TEN WR #24 of 32: 35.9 fpa, FAVORABLE, proj 16.1.
Cam Ward vs HOU QB #22 of 32: 18.1 fpa, FAVORABLE, proj 12.6.
Tony Pollard vs HOU RB #3 of 32: 18.5 fpa, TOUGH, proj 10.9.
C.J. Stroud vs TEN QB #17 of 32: 17.3 fpa, NEUTRAL, proj 16.7.
David Montgomery vs TEN RB #13 of 32: 21.0 fpa, NEUTRAL, proj 12.4.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
HOU	C.J. Stroud	QB	18.2	$5,900	TEN #18 of 32	18.0	Neutral
HOU	Nico Collins	WR	17.3	$7,500	TEN #27 of 32	37.2	Smash
HOU	David Montgomery	RB	12.2	$5,800	TEN #8 of 32	19.8	Neutral
HOU	Dalton Schultz	TE	8.4	$4,000	TEN #14 of 32	12.0	Neutral
TEN	Cam Ward	QB	12.8	$4,900	HOU #8 of 32	15.6	Neutral
TEN	Carnell Tate	WR	11.7	$5,300	HOU #24 of 32	35.1	Favorable
TEN	Tony Pollard	RB	10.1	$5,600	HOU #3 of 32	18.6	Tough
TEN	Gunnar Helm	TE	4.9	$2,800	HOU #8 of 32	10.6	Neutral

HOU skill positions vs TEN defense

#18/32

18.0 fpa

Average

#8/32

19.8 fpa

Avoid

#27/32

37.2 fpa

Elite

#14/32

12.0 fpa

Bad

TEN skill positions vs HOU defense

#8/32

15.6 fpa

Avoid

#3/32

18.6 fpa

Avoid

#24/32

35.1 fpa

Good

#8/32

10.6 fpa

Avoid

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

HOU runs 64 plays (#9) at 63 percent pass; TEN plays just 54 (#31).
Favorite HOU controls and throws; dog TEN trails and must pass despite WR drought.
Points lean HOU: 22.2 implied vs 15.2, both offenses light on TD rate.

Projected points (market implied)

HOU22.0

TEN15.5

Offense profile

HOURank of 32TEN

22.0 #18 Pts / G 11.6 #32

280.6 #5 Pass yds / G 185.8 #31

79.0 #31 Rush yds / G 82.6 #27

63.4 #12 Plays / G 54.6 #32

61% Pass rate 59%

1.2 Pass TD / G 0.6

1.0 Rush TD / G 0.6

2.8 Sacks taken / G 2.0

0.0 INT thrown / G 0.6

Defense profile

HOURank of 32TEN

22.4 #17 Pts allowed / G 21.8 #13

262.8 #27 Pass yds allowed 228.8 #14

78.4 #3 Rush yds allowed 114.0 #17

3.6 Sacks / G 2.0

0.4 INT / G 0.4

1.2 Pass TD allowed 1.0

1.0 Rush TD allowed 1.0

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 5 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-10-11 12:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

75°F

feels 72°

Wind

8 mph SSW

gusts 10 mph

Rain

0.00 in

Humidity

46%

Sunny, 75F, wind 8 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Sunny, 75F, wind 9 mph gusting 12, rain 2 percent: no weather factor.
Passing and kicking unaffected; total driven by offenses, not conditions.

DFS

Stack: Stroud with Collins, favorable WR #24 matchup and 30.1 ceiling.
Value: Dalton Schultz $4000 at 2.32x, proj 9.3 into TEN TE #15.
Fade: Tony Pollard $5600 at 1.95x vs HOU RB #3, TOUGH.
Contrarian: Wan'Dale Robinson $4500 soaks targets if Tate sits vs HOU WR #26.

HOU projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	C.J. Stroud	18.2	10.7 / 25.3	$5,900	3.08x	$7,300	#18
WR	Nico Collins	17.3	8.8 / 30.1	$7,500	2.31x	$7,800	#27
RB	David Montgomery doubtful	12.2	6.0 / 19.5	$5,800	2.10x	$6,800	#8
TE	Dalton Schultz	8.4	3.9 / 15.7	$4,000	2.11x	$5,300	#14
RB	Woody Marks	7.9	3.8 / 14.4	$4,800	1.65x	$5,800	#8
WR	Kayshon Boutte	5.7	1.3 / 12.2	$3,900	1.46x	$5,100	#27
WR	Jaylin Noel	5.1	1.5 / 11.5	$3,200	1.60x	$5,400	#27

TEN projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Cam Ward	12.8	8.1 / 20.4	$4,900	2.61x	$6,500	#8
WR	Carnell Tate	11.7	4.9 / 19.9	$5,300	2.22x	$5,900	#24
RB	Tony Pollard	10.1	5.8 / 17.8	$5,600	1.80x	$5,800	#3
WR	Wan'Dale Robinson	8.6	3.8 / 15.9	$4,500	1.91x	$5,200	#24
RB	Tyjae Spears	5.8	2.2 / 10.2	$4,600	1.25x	$4,800	#3
TE	Gunnar Helm	4.9	1.4 / 10.0	$2,800	1.74x	$4,600	#8
WR	Elic Ayomanor	4.3	0.0 / 11.1	$3,000	1.44x	$4,800	#24

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Nico Collins - receiving yards 76.5 - lean over - TEN WR #24, proj 16.1.
Cam Ward - passing yards 189.5 - lean over - HOU QB #22, proj 12.6.
Tony Pollard - rushing yards 48.5 - lean under - HOU RB #3, avoid matchup.
Dalton Schultz - receptions 4.5 (+124) - lean over - proj 9.3 into TE #15.

All HOU and TEN props with AI grades

Injuries

HOU 8 listed

Out Graham Mertz QB Unknown Severe
Out Marlin Klein TE Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Aiden Fisher LB Unknown Minimal
Out Chris Braswell OLB Unknown Minimal
Out Collin Wright CB Unknown Minimal
Out E.J. Speed LB Quadriceps Minimal
Out Febechi Nwaiwu G Unknown Minimal
Out Sabastian Harsh DE Unknown Minimal

TEN 8 listed

Out David Martin-Robinson TE Hamstring Severe
Out Jaren Kanak TE Unknown Severe
Out Michael Carter RB Unknown Severe
Out Nicholas Singleton RB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Amani Hooker FS Unknown Minimal
Out Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson OT Unknown Minimal
Out Jackie Marshall DT Unknown Minimal
Out Jaylen Harrell DE Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

Form: both teams 0-4, TEN averaging just 13.8 points per game.
H2H: HOU won the last two, 16-13 and 26-0.
Line movement: spread and total frozen at 7.0 and 37.5 since the open.

HOU last 5

W 26-3 @ TENL 30-34 vs DALL 17-19 @ INDL 6-20 vs CINL 31-36 vs BUF

TEN last 5

L 3-26 vs HOUL 18-24 @ BALL 7-12 @ NYGL 20-24 vs PHIL 10-23 vs NYJ

Head-to-head

Oct 11, 2026 HOU 26 at TEN 3
Nov 16, 2025 HOU 16 at TEN 13
Sep 28, 2025 TEN 0 at HOU 26

Watch list

Carnell Tate (back, questionable): his status sets TEN's ceiling and Robinson's target share.
HOU offensive line: Ersery, Fisher and Ingram all questionable, affecting Stroud protection.
Amani Hooker (questionable): a TEN secondary absence further softens the Collins spot.