Archived Week 5 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · MetLife Stadium, New York Final

Cleveland Browns

3-1 · 3-2 last season

Final12

At NYJ -2.5 Total 38.5 NYJ covered · Under

New York Jets

1-3 · 2-3 last season

Final17

Line movement open Oct 6 NYJ spread -1.5 -2.5 1.0 Total 40.5 38.5 2.0

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 4/10

Quinshon Judkins into the NFL's #32 run defense is the only edge in a 39.5-total coinflip.

SidePASSprojected margin 1.5 equals the spread, no edge.

TotalBET UNDER 39.5two bottom-6 offenses, rain and wind, total already dropped a point.

Best bet

Quinshon Judkins over 58.5 rushing yards against the NFL's #32-ranked run defense.

Quick hits

NYJ -1.5, total 39.5; implied CLE 19.0, NYJ 20.5, near-even game.
Low scoring: both offenses rank #22 and #25 in points, both bottom-6 in plays.
Judkins vs NYJ #32 RB defense (29.5 fpa) is the decisive mismatch.
Script near-neutral; NYJ slim favorite, both teams lean run given weak pass volume.
Rain and 13 mph wind plus Breece Hall questionable can tilt it further under.

Key matchups

Judkins vs NYJ #32 RB: 29.5 fpa, elite, SMASH, league's softest run spot.
Sadiq vs CLE #23 TE: 15.0 fpa, FAVORABLE, cheap $3800 TE leverage.
Boston vs NYJ #9 WR: 29.8 fpa listed but rank stingy, NEUTRAL, avoid.
Garrett Wilson vs CLE #15 WR: 31.7 fpa, NEUTRAL, still team's top option at 20.1 proj.
Watson vs NYJ #14 QB: 17.2 fpa, NEUTRAL, capped 17.6 projection.
Braelon Allen vs CLE #11 RB: 20.3 fpa, NEUTRAL, solid 14.4 proj if Hall sits.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
CLE	Deshaun Watson	QB	15.7	$5,100	NYJ #15 of 32	16.8	Neutral
CLE	Quinshon Judkins	RB	11.4	$5,700	NYJ #32 of 32	28.2	Smash
CLE	Denzel Boston	WR	10.2	$5,200	NYJ #9 of 32	30.0	Neutral
CLE	Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	10.0	$4,400	NYJ #10 of 32	11.6	Neutral
NYJ	Garrett Wilson	WR	18.7	$6,600	CLE #14 of 32	31.4	Neutral
NYJ	Geno Smith	QB	14.9	$5,000	CLE #7 of 32	15.5	Tough
NYJ	Braelon Allen	RB	13.9	$5,400	CLE #13 of 32	20.8	Neutral
NYJ	Kenyon Sadiq	TE	8.3	$3,800	CLE #19 of 32	14.2	Neutral

CLE skill positions vs NYJ defense

#15/32

16.8 fpa

Average

#32/32

28.2 fpa

Elite

#9/32

30.0 fpa

Bad

#10/32

11.6 fpa

Bad

NYJ skill positions vs CLE defense

#7/32

15.5 fpa

Avoid

#13/32

20.8 fpa

Bad

#14/32

31.4 fpa

Bad

#19/32

14.2 fpa

Good

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

Both sub-57 plays, pass rates 53-54%, slow and run-tilted pace.
NYJ favored by 1.5, expect balanced script with neither forced to chase early.
Points scarce: implied 19.0 and 20.5, low TD rates push red-zone value to backs.

Projected points (market implied)

CLE18.0

NYJ20.5

Offense profile

CLERank of 32NYJ

18.6 #27 Pts / G 18.6 #28

202.0 #24 Pass yds / G 217.2 #20

94.2 #21 Rush yds / G 94.0 #22

58.8 #24 Plays / G 58.8 #26

54% Pass rate 53%

1.4 Pass TD / G 1.2

0.4 Rush TD / G 0.8

3.8 Sacks taken / G 3.2

0.4 INT thrown / G 0.0

Defense profile

CLERank of 32NYJ

22.4 #15 Pts allowed / G 19.2 #7

240.2 #20 Pass yds allowed 195.4 #4

117.4 #19 Rush yds allowed 118.0 #20

3.2 Sacks / G 3.4

0.8 INT / G 0.2

2.0 Pass TD allowed 1.2

0.2 Rush TD allowed 0.8

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 5 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-10-11 13:00 local Moderate impact

Conditions

Light rain

Temp

61°F

feels 55°

Wind

13 mph E

gusts 27 mph

Rain

69%

0.03 in

Humidity

87%

Wind 13 mph: minor, mostly on long kicks
Rain chance 69%: watch for showers at kickoff

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Light rain 60%, 64F, wind 13 mph with 26 gusts dings deep passing and long kicks.
Moderate rain impact favors run-heavy script and the under.

DFS

Stack: Judkins plus Fannin, Browns backfield and short passing into soft spots.
Value: Sadiq $3800 (2.34x) vs CLE #23 TE, cheap leverage.
Fade: Denzel Boston $5200 (1.84x) into NYJ #9 WR defense.
Contrarian: Braelon Allen if Hall sits, 14.4 proj at $5400 gets low owned.

CLE projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Deshaun Watson	15.7	9.8 / 22.9	$5,100	3.07x	$6,900	#15
RB	Quinshon Judkins questionable	11.4	7.0 / 19.3	$5,700	2.00x	$6,100	#32
WR	Denzel Boston	10.2	3.8 / 19.4	$5,200	1.96x	$5,800	#9
TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	10.0	4.6 / 17.5	$4,400	2.28x	$5,400	#10
WR	KC Concepcion Jr. questionable	9.6	4.2 / 16.3	$4,200	2.28x	$5,600	#9
RB	Raheim Sanders questionable	4.7	1.7 / 9.2	$4,700	1.00x	$4,700	#32
WR	Jerry Jeudy	4.6	0.0 / 9.8	$3,700	1.23x	$5,100	#9

NYJ projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
WR	Garrett Wilson	18.7	9.6 / 29.3	$6,600	2.84x	$7,400	#14
QB	Geno Smith	14.9	9.2 / 22.4	$5,000	2.98x	$6,700	#7
RB	Braelon Allen	13.9	7.5 / 21.5	$5,400	2.57x	$5,900	#13
TE	Kenyon Sadiq questionable	8.3	3.3 / 15.9	$3,800	2.18x	$5,100	#19
WR	Isaiah Williams	6.9	2.8 / 13.5	$3,700	1.86x	$5,400	#14
TE	Mason Taylor	4.3	1.3 / 9.9	$2,500	1.72x	$4,200	#19
RB	Isaiah Davis	3.7	1.2 / 8.7	$4,200	0.87x	$4,900	#13