Archived Week 5 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh Final

Indianapolis Colts

2-2 · 2-3 last season

Final22

At PIT -2.5 Total 42.5 PIT covered · Over

Pittsburgh Steelers

2-2 · 3-2 last season

Final34

Line movement open Oct 6 PIT spread -1.5 -2.5 1.0 Total 44.5 42.5 2.0

The angle, before kickoff Play · 6/10

Rodgers and Metcalf both SMASH a Colts secondary ranked 29th and 27th vs the pass.

SideBET HOME -2.5spread moved toward PIT and IND defense ranks 29th vs QB.

TotalPASSprojected total 43.5 equals the line exactly.

Best bet

DK Metcalf over 52.5 receiving yards against the Colts' 27th-ranked pass defense with Pittman out.

Quick hits

PIT -2.5, total 43.5; implied IND 20.5, PIT 23.0.
Balanced-to-moderate scoring, both offenses mid-pack but soft secondaries on each side.
Rodgers vs IND #29 QB defense is the decisive edge, a SMASH spot.
PIT narrow favorite, pass-heavy at 64%; IND leans run with Taylor at 54% pass.
Keenan Allen questionable and three IND corners banged up swing the margin.

Key matchups

Aaron Rodgers vs IND #29 QB defense: 20.5 fpa, SMASH, elite spot.
DK Metcalf vs IND #27 WR defense: 36.5 fpa, SMASH, with Pittman out.
Jaylen Warren vs IND #22 RB defense: 23.3 fpa, favorable, 19.6 projected.
Jonathan Taylor vs PIT #20 RB defense: 23.0 fpa, favorable, 18.1 projected.
Daniel Jones vs PIT #13 QB defense: 17.1 fpa, neutral, toughest Colts spot.
Pat Freiermuth vs IND #21 TE defense: 14.9 fpa, favorable at $3900.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
IND	Jonathan Taylor	RB	18.6	$7,800	PIT #17 of 32	21.1	Neutral
IND	Daniel Jones	QB	15.9	$5,000	PIT #14 of 32	16.7	Neutral
IND	Tyler Warren	TE	13.7	$5,000	PIT #23 of 32	15.5	Favorable
IND	Josh Downs	WR	12.5	$6,000	PIT #16 of 32	31.8	Neutral
PIT	Jaylen Warren	RB	17.6	$6,700	IND #24 of 32	24.5	Favorable
PIT	Aaron Rodgers	QB	16.4	$5,300	IND #26 of 32	20.3	Smash
PIT	DK Metcalf	WR	13.1	$5,400	IND #23 of 32	34.2	Favorable
PIT	Pat Freiermuth	TE	9.1	$3,900	IND #26 of 32	16.2	Smash

IND skill positions vs PIT defense

#14/32

16.7 fpa

Bad

#17/32

21.1 fpa

Average

#16/32

31.8 fpa

Average

#23/32

15.5 fpa

Good

PIT skill positions vs IND defense

#26/32

20.3 fpa

Elite

#24/32

24.5 fpa

Good

#23/32

34.2 fpa

Good

#26/32

16.2 fpa

Elite

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

PIT 64% pass on 64 plays, IND 54% pass on 63; Steelers tilt aerial.
PIT favored, expect leads and Rodgers attacking; IND counters with Taylor ground game.
Implied 23.0 vs 20.5; points flow through PIT passing and Taylor red-zone usage.

Projected points (market implied)

IND20.0

PIT22.5

Offense profile

INDRank of 32PIT

24.8 #11 Pts / G 22.2 #17

204.4 #23 Pass yds / G 247.2 #13

100.8 #20 Rush yds / G 101.2 #19

64.4 #9 Plays / G 61.6 #18

56% Pass rate 63%

0.6 Pass TD / G 2.0

1.6 Rush TD / G 0.2

1.8 Sacks taken / G 2.8

0.8 INT thrown / G 0.8

Defense profile

INDRank of 32PIT

27.6 #28 Pts allowed / G 21.8 #12

268.0 #28 Pass yds allowed 234.2 #17

130.2 #27 Rush yds allowed 103.4 #14

2.0 Sacks / G 2.2

0.2 INT / G 0.8

1.8 Pass TD allowed 1.0

1.2 Rush TD allowed 0.8

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 5 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-10-11 13:00 local Moderate impact

Conditions

Patchy rain nearby

Temp

61°F

feels 57°

Wind

11 mph ESE

gusts 28 mph

Rain

42%

0.00 in

Humidity

93%

Wind 11 mph: minor, mostly on long kicks
Rain chance 42%: watch for showers at kickoff

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Light rain, 60F, wind 8 mph with 25 gust, 75% rain, DraftEdge impact low.
Minor passing and kicking drag, not enough to force a total fade.

DFS

Stack Rodgers plus Metcalf into the IND #27 WR matchup.
Pat Freiermuth at $3900, 2.17x, favorable vs IND #21 TE.
Fade Josh Downs at $6000, 1.81x, neutral vs PIT #16 WR.
Contrarian: Jonathan Taylor at $7800 anchors run game vs #20 RB, 28.2 ceiling.

IND projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
RB	Jonathan Taylor	18.6	10.2 / 27.5	$7,800	2.38x	$8,600	#17
QB	Daniel Jones	15.9	8.8 / 21.9	$5,000	3.18x	$6,900	#14
TE	Tyler Warren	13.7	6.4 / 21.4	$5,000	2.75x	$5,500	#23
WR	Josh Downs	12.5	5.4 / 20.4	$6,000	2.08x	$6,100	#16
WR	Keenan Allen	8.1	3.6 / 15.6	$4,300	1.89x	$5,800	#16
WR	Laquon Treadwell	5.5	1.4 / 10.9	$3,600	1.52x	$4,900	#16
RB	Seth McGowan	2.6	0.4 / 6.2	$4,300	0.60x	$5,000	#17

PIT projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
RB	Jaylen Warren	17.6	10.2 / 26.4	$6,700	2.63x	$6,700	#24
QB	Aaron Rodgers	16.4	9.7 / 23.6	$5,300	3.09x	$7,000	#26
WR	DK Metcalf	13.1	5.9 / 22.7	$5,400	2.42x	$6,800	#23
WR	Roman Wilson out	10.7	4.1 / 18.0	$3,700	2.89x	$5,600	#23
TE	Pat Freiermuth	9.1	3.5 / 15.2	$3,900	2.32x	$5,000	#26
TE	Darnell Washington	6.2	1.8 / 12.4	$2,900	2.12x	$4,800	#26
WR	Germie Bernard	6.1	2.2 / 12.3	$3,400	1.78x	$5,200	#23

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

DK Metcalf - receiving yards 52.5 - over - IND #27 WR, 36.5 fpa allowed.
Aaron Rodgers - passing yards 225.5 - over - IND #29 QB, elite spot.
Jaylen Warren - rushing yards 61.5 - over - 19.6 proj vs #22 RB.
Pat Freiermuth - receptions 3.5 - over - favorable #21 TE, Pittman out.

All IND and PIT props with AI grades

Injuries

IND 8 listed

Out Ashton Dulin WR Unknown Severe
Out Darius Slayton WR Knee Severe
Out Riley Leonard QB Coach'S Decision Severe
IR Alec Pierce WR Unknown Severe
IR Carson Towt TE Unknown Severe
IR D.J. Montgomery WR Abdomen Severe
Out Dalton Tucker G Unknown Minimal
Out Jaylon Carlies LB Unknown Minimal

PIT 8 listed

Out Cole Burgess WR Unknown Severe
Out Drew Allar QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Eli Heidenreich RB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Rico Dowdle RB Toe Severe
Out Will Howard QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Donte Kent CB Undisclosed Minimal
Out Jack Driscoll OT Undisclosed Minimal
Out Jamel Dean CB Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

IND won two straight, 30-13 at WAS; PIT 2-2 with a 3-20 loss at NE.
H2H: PIT won last meeting 27-20, IND took prior two.
Spread moved PIT -1.5 to -2.5, total dropped 44.5 to 43.5.

IND last 5

L 22-34 @ PITW 30-13 @ WASW 19-17 vs HOUL 30-33 @ KCL 23-41 vs BAL

PIT last 5

W 34-22 vs INDL 24-27 @ CLEW 30-27 vs CINL 3-20 @ NEW 20-13 vs ATL

Head-to-head

Oct 11, 2026 IND 22 at PIT 34
Nov 2, 2025 IND 20 at PIT 27
Sep 29, 2024 PIT 24 at IND 27

Watch list

Keenan Allen groin questionable - changes IND WR hierarchy and Downs usage.
Jalen Ramsey and Jamel Dean questionable - their status aids IND passing if out.
Rico Dowdle toe questionable - affects Jaylen Warren backfield share.
Rain at kickoff - 75% chance could trim passing props if it intensifies.