Archived Week 5 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Thu Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET · Prime Video · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Indoor Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0-4 · 1-4 last season
Final24
At
DAL -7.5 Total 48.5 TB covered · Under
Dallas Cowboys
2-2 · 2-3 last season
Final16
Line movement open Oct 6
DAL spread
-8.5 -7.5
1.0
Total
47.5 48.5
1.0
The angle, before kickoff
Pass · 3/10
DAL -8.5 but TB has lost four straight by single digits with a top-3 run defense.
SideBET AWAY +8.5TB has lost four straight by single digits with a #3 run defense.
TotalPASSprojected total sits right on 48.5 with a backup QB capping TB.
Best bet
Jake Ferguson over 3.5 receptions, SMASH spot against TB's #28-ranked TE defense.
Quick hits
- Market: DAL -8.5, total 48.5, implied DAL 28.5 / TB 20.0.
- Balanced-to-high: DAL offense #2 at 30.5 pts, but TB defense ranks #8 pass, #3 rush.
- Decisive: DAL defense is #28 overall, #31 vs WR, feeding TB's passing game.
- Script: DAL leads and stays balanced, TB trails and passes with backup Daniels.
- Swing: Baker Mayfield out, Jalon Daniels starts, capping TB's upside.
Key matchups
- Jalon Daniels vs DAL #31 vs QB: 24.1 fpa, SMASH matchup, $4700 cheap.
- Emeka Egbuka vs DAL #31 vs WR: 38.6 fpa, SMASH, elite softness.
- Jake Ferguson vs TB #28 vs TE: 17.5 fpa, SMASH spot for $4300.
- CeeDee Lamb vs TB #6 vs WR: 27.4 fpa, TOUGH, stingy secondary.
- Javonte Williams vs TB #8 vs RB: 20.0 fpa, NEUTRAL, run game capped.
- Bucky Irving vs DAL #24 vs RB: 23.9 fpa, FAVORABLE, 52.5-yard line.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB |
Jalon Daniels | QB | 17.3 | $4,700 | DAL #30 of 32 | 22.7 | Smash |
| TB |
Bucky Irving | RB | 12.8 | $5,700 | DAL #28 of 32 | 25.8 | Smash |
| TB |
Emeka Egbuka | WR | 12.5 | $5,100 | DAL #30 of 32 | 38.6 | Smash |
| TB |
Cade Otton | TE | 8.3 | $3,400 | DAL #15 of 32 | 12.1 | Neutral |
| DAL |
Dak Prescott | QB | 22.3 | $6,700 | TB #21 of 32 | 18.5 | Favorable |
| DAL |
CeeDee Lamb | WR | 21.0 | $8,300 | TB #13 of 32 | 30.9 | Neutral |
| DAL |
Javonte Williams | RB | 18.4 | $7,300 | TB #5 of 32 | 18.9 | Tough |
| DAL |
Jake Ferguson | TE | 9.6 | $4,300 | TB #24 of 32 | 15.8 | Favorable |
TB skill positions vs DAL defenseQB
#30/32
22.7 fpa
RB
#28/32
25.8 fpa
WR
#30/32
38.6 fpa
TE
#15/32
12.1 fpa
DAL skill positions vs TB defenseQB
#21/32
18.5 fpa
RB
#5/32
18.9 fpa
WR
#13/32
30.9 fpa
TE
#24/32
15.8 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- DAL 62 plays at 61% pass, TB 60 plays at 57%, moderate pace.
- DAL favored by 8.5 leads and balances, TB chases pass-heavy behind.
- Points skew DAL at 28.5 implied, 2.0 pass TD offense vs #28 defense.
Projected points (market implied)
TB20.5
DAL28.0
Offense profile
TBRank of 32DAL
20.0
#25
Pts / G
27.6
#7
190.4
#26
Pass yds / G
276.4
#6
133.0
#7
Rush yds / G
81.6
#30
60.8
#21
Plays / G
61.0
#20
53%
Pass rate
64%
0.8
Pass TD / G
1.8
1.0
Rush TD / G
1.4
3.4
Sacks taken / G
1.2
1.0
INT thrown / G
0.6
Defense profile
TBRank of 32DAL
22.4
#19
Pts allowed / G
27.2
#27
235.4
#18
Pass yds allowed
232.2
#16
72.8
#2
Rush yds allowed
168.4
#32
1.2
Sacks / G
1.0
1.0
INT / G
0.0
1.4
Pass TD allowed
2.0
0.4
Rush TD allowed
1.2
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 5 games per team.
Weather
Indoor: no weather factor. AT&T Stadium is a covered venue.
- Indoor: no weather factor.
DFS
- Stack: Dak Prescott plus Jake Ferguson, SMASH TE spot vs TB #28.
- Value: Cade Otton $3400 at 2.27x, neutral spot but priced to return.
- Fade: Javonte Williams $7300 into TB #8 run defense, NEUTRAL ceiling.
- Contrarian: Egbuka and Godwin both vs DAL #31 WR, low-owned leverage.
TB projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jalon Daniels | 17.3 | 10.5 / 24.9 | $4,700 | 3.68x | $6,500 | #30 |
| RB | Bucky Irving | 12.8 | 6.8 / 19.0 | $5,700 | 2.25x | $7,400 | #28 |
| WR | Emeka Egbuka | 12.5 | 5.1 / 20.9 | $5,100 | 2.45x | $5,800 | #30 |
| WR | Chris Godwin Jr. | 10.2 | 4.5 / 17.1 | $4,700 | 2.17x | $5,500 | #30 |
| TE | Cade Otton | 8.3 | 3.9 / 15.2 | $3,400 | 2.45x | $5,000 | #15 |
| RB | Kenny Gainwell | 6.4 | 2.8 / 12.4 | $4,700 | 1.37x | $4,800 | #28 |
| WR | Ted Hurst III | 5.8 | 1.2 / 12.8 | $3,400 | 1.71x | $5,300 | #30 |
DAL projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Dak Prescott | 22.3 | 13.6 / 30.1 | $6,700 | 3.33x | $8,200 | #21 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb questionable | 21.0 | 11.8 / 33.7 | $8,300 | 2.53x | $8,800 | #13 |
| RB | Javonte Williams | 18.4 | 10.2 / 27.5 | $7,300 | 2.53x | $7,700 | #5 |
| WR | George Pickens | 15.2 | 6.4 / 25.4 | $6,300 | 2.41x | $7,700 | #13 |
| TE | Jake Ferguson | 9.6 | 3.4 / 16.3 | $4,300 | 2.23x | $5,300 | #24 |
| WR | Ryan Flournoy | 7.5 | 3.1 / 14.7 | $3,800 | 1.97x | $5,200 | #13 |
| RB | Tyler Goodson | 3.2 | 0.8 / 7.2 | $4,000 | 0.81x | $4,600 | #5 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Jake Ferguson - receptions 3.5 (o+105) - over - SMASH vs TB #28 TE.
- Emeka Egbuka - receptions 3.5 (o+135) - over - DAL #31 vs WR.
- CeeDee Lamb - receiving yards 80.5 (o+175) - under - TB #6 vs WR, TOUGH.
- Dak Prescott - passing yards 265.5 (o+170) - lean over - TB #25 vs QB, FAVORABLE.
Injuries
TB 8 listed- Out Baker Mayfield QB Thumb Severe
- Out David Sills WR Undisclosed Severe
- Out Antoine Winfield Jr. FS Unknown Minimal
- Out Benjamin Morrison CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Billy Schrauth G Unknown Minimal
- Out DeMonte Capehart DT Unknown Minimal
- Out Luke Haggard G Unknown Minimal
- Out Mohamed Kamara OLB Knee Minimal
DAL 8 listed- Out Camden Brown WR Unknown Severe
- Out DJ Rogers TE Knee Severe
- Out Ajani Cornelius OT Unknown Minimal
- Out DeMarvion Overshown ILB Unknown Minimal
- Out Decobie Durant CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Drew Shelton T Hamstring Minimal
- Out James Houston OLB Unknown Minimal
- Out Joey Porter Jr. CB Unknown Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- TB 0-4, four straight losses by 3, 7, 4, 6, all inside 8.5.
- H2H: DAL won 26-24 in Dec 2024, TB won 19-3 and 31-29 prior.
- Line: spread flat at -8.5, total up 1.0 to 48.5.
TB last 5W 24-16 @ DALL 14-17 vs GBL 16-23 vs MINL 19-23 vs CLEL 27-33 @ CIN
DAL last 5L 16-24 vs TBW 34-30 @ HOUL 31-34 vs BALW 37-20 vs WASL 20-28 @ NYG
Head-to-head
- Oct 8, 2026 TB 24 at DAL 16
- Dec 22, 2024 TB 24 at DAL 26
- Sep 11, 2022 TB 19 at DAL 3
Watch list
- Benjamin Morrison and Decobie Durant CB tags affect the WR-vs-WR matchups.
- DeMarvion Overshown questionable hamstring could soften DAL run and coverage.
- Total ticked up 1.0 to 48.5, watch for further steam before kickoff.
Week 5 slate
All 15 games this week.
TB @ DAL
Thu 8:15 PM ET
DAL -7.5
O/U 48.5
Final
PHI @ JAX
Sun 9:30 AM ET
JAX -2.5
O/U 45.5
Final
CHI @ GB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -1.5
O/U 46.5
Final
CIN @ MIA
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -7
O/U 44.5
Final
CLE @ NYJ
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NYJ -2.5
O/U 38.5
Final
HOU @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
HOU -6.5
O/U 37.5
Final
IND @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
PIT -2.5
O/U 42.5
Final
LV @ NE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NE -3.5
O/U 45.5
Final
MIN @ NO
Sun 1:00 PM ET
MIN -1.5
O/U 42.5
Final
NYG @ WAS
Sun 1:00 PM ET
WAS -3.5
O/U 41.5
Final
DEN @ LAC
Sun 4:05 PM ET
DEN -3.5
O/U 42.5
Final
DET @ ARI
Sun 4:25 PM ET
DET -5.5
O/U 54.5
Final
SF @ SEA
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SEA -3
O/U 46.5
Final
BAL @ ATL
Sun 8:20 PM ET
ATL -3.5
O/U 43.5
Final
BUF @ LA
Mon 8:15 PM ET
BUF -1.5
O/U 51.5
Kicked off