Archived Week 5 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Oct 11, 9:30 AM ET · NFL NETWORK · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United Kingdom Neutral site Indoor Final

Philadelphia Eagles

2-2 · 2-3 last season

Final17

Neutral site JAX -2.5 Total 45.5 PHI covered · Under

Jacksonville Jaguars

3-1 · 4-1 last season

Final19

Line movement open Oct 6 JAX spread -7 -2.5 4.5 Total 41.5 45.5 4.0

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 4/10

JAX -7.5 with the NFL's #2 scoring defense hosting Philadelphia's #32 passing offense.

SideBET HOME -7.5JAX #2 scoring defense faces PHI's #32 passing attack with Barkley and Smith banged up.

TotalPASSprojected total matches the 41.5 line exactly.

Best bet

Bhayshul Tuten over 67.5 rushing yards against Philadelphia's #21 run defense with JAX controlling game script.

Quick hits

JAX -7.5, total 41.5, implied PHI 17.0 / JAX 24.5.
Low-scoring: JAX defense allows just 13.2 (#2), PHI offense scores 18.8 (#26).
JAX #2 run defense vs Philadelphia's injury-thinned backfield is decisive.
JAX leads and leans run (48% pass rate), PHI chasing but can't pass (#32).
PHI's Barkley and Smith questionable removes their only scoring upside.

Key matchups

Bhayshul Tuten vs PHI RB defense: 23.2 fpa, #21, FAVORABLE, proj 10.8.
Darius Cooper vs JAX WR defense: 34.8 fpa, #23, FAVORABLE, proj 10.7.
Will Shipley vs JAX RB defense: 17.9 fpa, #2, TOUGH, proj 7.5.
Brenton Strange vs PHI TE defense: 8.2 fpa, #1, TOUGH, proj 10.1.
Parker Washington vs PHI WR defense: 32.1 fpa, #17, NEUTRAL, proj 14.3.
Jalen Hurts vs JAX QB defense: 16.7 fpa, #11, NEUTRAL, proj 17.3.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
PHI	Jalen Hurts	QB	18.5	$6,400	JAX #12 of 32	16.3	Neutral
PHI	Dallas Goedert	TE	9.6	$4,200	JAX #9 of 32	11.6	Neutral
PHI	Will Shipley	RB	9.6	$5,100	JAX #1 of 32	17.4	Tough
PHI	Dontayvion Wicks	WR	9.3	$4,900	JAX #25 of 32	35.5	Favorable
JAX	Trevor Lawrence	QB	17.2	$5,900	PHI #20 of 32	18.4	Favorable
JAX	Parker Washington	WR	13.2	$6,200	PHI #22 of 32	34.1	Favorable
JAX	Bhayshul Tuten	RB	12.6	$5,800	PHI #19 of 32	22.2	Neutral
JAX	Brenton Strange	TE	8.5	$3,500	PHI #3 of 32	9.4	Tough

PHI skill positions vs JAX defense

#12/32

16.3 fpa

Bad

#1/32

17.4 fpa

Avoid

#25/32

35.5 fpa

Elite

#9/32

11.6 fpa

Bad

JAX skill positions vs PHI defense

#20/32

18.4 fpa

Good

#19/32

22.2 fpa

Good

#22/32

34.1 fpa

Good

#3/32

9.4 fpa

Avoid

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

Both play slow: JAX 56 plays (#30), PHI 58 (#26), low volume.
JAX favored, run-leaning at 48% pass; PHI forced to throw despite #32 passing.
Points lean JAX: 24.5 implied vs 17.0, JAX scores 26.0 per game (#12).

Projected points (market implied)

PHI21.5

JAX24.0

Offense profile

PHIRank of 32JAX

18.4 #29 Pts / G 24.6 #12

186.6 #30 Pass yds / G 234.8 #18

91.6 #24 Rush yds / G 114.2 #15

57.8 #28 Plays / G 58.6 #27

56% Pass rate 51%

1.6 Pass TD / G 2.0

0.6 Rush TD / G 0.8

2.6 Sacks taken / G 2.0

0.8 INT thrown / G 0.6

Defense profile

PHIRank of 32JAX

22.4 #18 Pts allowed / G 14.0 #2

248.4 #23 Pass yds allowed 277.2 #31

118.0 #21 Rush yds allowed 63.8 #1

1.2 Sacks / G 2.2

0.6 INT / G 1.2

1.2 Pass TD allowed 0.8

1.4 Rush TD allowed 0.6

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 5 games per team.

Weather

Indoor: no weather factor. Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is a covered venue.

Indoor: no weather factor.

DFS

Stack Trevor Lawrence ($5900) with Parker Washington ($6200), top JAX pass game.
Value Darius Cooper $3300 (3.25x), favorable vs JAX #23 WR defense.
Fade Will Shipley $5100 (1.46x), TOUGH vs JAX #2 run defense.
Contrarian Bhayshul Tuten $5800, FAVORABLE vs PHI #21 RB defense with game-script control.

PHI projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Jalen Hurts	18.5	10.3 / 25.0	$6,400	2.89x	$8,100	#12
TE	Dallas Goedert	9.6	4.4 / 17.5	$4,200	2.28x	$5,100	#9
RB	Will Shipley doubtful	9.6	4.9 / 15.0	$5,100	1.88x	$6,100	#1
WR	Dontayvion Wicks	9.3	3.4 / 15.7	$4,900	1.89x	$6,000	#25
WR	Makai Lemon	7.1	2.9 / 13.3	$4,400	1.61x	$5,400	#25
WR	Darius Cooper	6.8	2.3 / 14.1	$3,300	2.07x	$5,400	#25
RB	Dameon Pierce	5.0	2.4 / 9.9	$4,000	1.24x	$4,000	#1

JAX projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Trevor Lawrence	17.2	11.3 / 26.3	$5,900	2.91x	$7,900	#20
WR	Parker Washington	13.2	6.3 / 24.0	$6,200	2.14x	$6,900	#22
RB	Bhayshul Tuten	12.6	6.4 / 19.5	$5,800	2.17x	$6,700	#19
WR	Jakobi Meyers	9.8	3.9 / 18.1	$4,800	2.04x	$5,600	#22
TE	Brenton Strange	8.5	3.5 / 15.9	$3,500	2.44x	$5,300	#3
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	7.2	1.8 / 13.8	$4,200	1.72x	$5,500	#22
RB	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	6.2	2.3 / 13.2	$4,800	1.29x	$5,400	#19

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Bhayshul Tuten - rushing yards 67.5 - lean over - FAVORABLE vs PHI #21 run defense.
Parker Washington - receiving yards 63.5 - lean over - top JAX target, proj 14.3.
Brenton Strange - receiving yards 31.5 - lean under - TOUGH vs PHI #1 TE defense.
Darius Cooper - receptions 2.5 - lean over (+123) - FAVORABLE vs JAX #23 WR defense.

All PHI and JAX props with AI grades