Archived Week 5 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · FOX · Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Indoor Final
Minnesota Vikings
4-0 · 5-0 last season
Final23
At
MIN -1.5 Total 42.5 MIN covered · Under
New Orleans Saints
1-3 · 1-4 last season
Final13
Line movement open Oct 6
NO spread
+1.5 +1.5
no move
Total
42.5 42.5
no move
The angle, before kickoff
Lean · 4/10
NO defense ranks 32nd allowing 32.0 points - Aaron Jones is the smash into a 31st RB matchup.
SideBET HOME MLNO +116 is live value given MIN's 178 pass yds (#31) offense.
TotalPASSprojected total 42.5 sits exactly on the line.
Best bet
Aaron Jones over 71.5 rushing yards into New Orleans' 31st-ranked run defense allowing 148 yards per game.
Quick hits
- MIN -1.5, total 42.5, implied MIN 22.0 and NO 20.5.
- Balanced scoring projected, elite MIN defense collides with NO's 32nd-ranked unit.
- Aaron Jones vs NO's 31st RB defense (28.1 fpa) is the decisive edge.
- MIN controls on the ground, NO forced to pass 64% chasing.
- Jefferson (ankle) and Kamara (back) both questionable swings the sides.
Key matchups
- Aaron Jones vs NO #31 RB defense (28.1 fpa): smash, soft run funnel.
- T.J. Hockenson vs NO #25 TE defense (15.3 fpa): favorable secondary target.
- Justin Jefferson vs NO #6 WR defense (28.0 fpa): tough, if active.
- Chris Olave vs MIN #5 WR defense (27.1 fpa): tough, stingy coverage.
- Tyler Shough vs MIN #1 QB defense (11.6 fpa): tough, league-best unit.
- Alvin Kamara vs MIN #1 RB defense (17.7 fpa): tough, capped ceiling.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN |
Justin Jefferson | WR | 17.6 | $7,300 | NO #7 of 32 | 28.0 | Tough |
| MIN |
Aaron Jones Sr. | RB | 15.9 | $6,500 | NO #31 of 32 | 27.5 | Smash |
| MIN |
Kyler Murray | QB | 15.8 | $5,200 | NO #9 of 32 | 15.7 | Neutral |
| MIN |
T.J. Hockenson | TE | 9.3 | $4,800 | NO #22 of 32 | 15.2 | Favorable |
| NO |
Chris Olave | WR | 17.2 | $7,700 | MIN #1 of 32 | 24.1 | Tough |
| NO |
Tyler Shough | QB | 16.9 | $6,100 | MIN #1 of 32 | 9.7 | Tough |
| NO |
Alvin Kamara | RB | 13.1 | $5,400 | MIN #2 of 32 | 17.8 | Tough |
| NO |
Juwan Johnson | TE | 10.7 | $4,500 | MIN #1 of 32 | 7.9 | Tough |
MIN skill positions vs NO defenseQB
#9/32
15.7 fpa
RB
#31/32
27.5 fpa
WR
#7/32
28.0 fpa
TE
#22/32
15.2 fpa
NO skill positions vs MIN defenseQB
#1/32
9.7 fpa
RB
#2/32
17.8 fpa
WR
#1/32
24.1 fpa
TE
#1/32
7.9 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- NO runs 73 plays (#2) at 64% pass, MIN plods at 60 plays and 49% pass.
- MIN leads and leans run into NO's 30th rush defense, NO throws chasing.
- Points split near even, 22.0 vs 20.5, NO's 2.2 pass TD vs MIN's 1.0.
Projected points (market implied)
MIN22.0
NO20.5
Offense profile
MINRank of 32NO
21.8
#20
Pts / G
23.6
#15
188.6
#28
Pass yds / G
260.8
#10
116.0
#13
Rush yds / G
81.8
#29
61.4
#19
Plays / G
66.8
#5
48%
Pass rate
64%
1.0
Pass TD / G
1.8
0.6
Rush TD / G
1.0
3.0
Sacks taken / G
2.6
0.4
INT thrown / G
1.0
Defense profile
MINRank of 32NO
12.8
#1
Pts allowed / G
30.2
#31
195.4
#3
Pass yds allowed
228.4
#12
86.6
#5
Rush yds allowed
148.8
#30
3.4
Sacks / G
2.0
1.2
INT / G
0.2
0.6
Pass TD allowed
1.6
0.4
Rush TD allowed
2.0
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 5 games per team.
Weather
Indoor: no weather factor. Caesars Superdome is a covered venue.
- Indoor: no weather factor.
DFS
- Stack Jones plus Hockenson against NO's soft run and 25th TE defense.
- Value Kyler Murray $5200 (3.32x) as cheap rushing-floor pivot.
- Fade Alvin Kamara into MIN's #1 RB defense despite salary.
- Contrarian Devaughn Vele $5200 if Olave draws shadow coverage.
MIN projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | Justin Jefferson | 17.6 | 9.0 / 29.1 | $7,300 | 2.42x | $8,000 | #7 |
| RB | Aaron Jones Sr. | 15.9 | 9.3 / 24.1 | $6,500 | 2.45x | $6,200 | #31 |
| QB | Kyler Murray | 15.8 | 10.6 / 24.3 | $5,200 | 3.04x | $7,000 | #9 |
| WR | Jordan Addison | 9.8 | 3.5 / 16.5 | $5,800 | 1.69x | $6,700 | #7 |
| TE | T.J. Hockenson | 9.3 | 4.6 / 16.7 | $4,800 | 1.94x | $5,200 | #22 |
| WR | Jauan Jennings | 3.5 | 0.0 / 8.9 | $4,100 | 0.85x | $5,300 | #7 |
| RB | Demond Claiborne | 2.5 | 0.4 / 5.6 | $4,000 | 0.62x | $5,000 | #31 |
NO projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | Chris Olave | 17.2 | 9.1 / 29.2 | $7,700 | 2.24x | $8,300 | #1 |
| QB | Tyler Shough | 16.9 | 10.8 / 25.5 | $6,100 | 2.76x | $7,700 | #1 |
| RB | Alvin Kamara | 13.1 | 6.5 / 19.4 | $5,400 | 2.43x | $6,300 | #2 |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | 10.7 | 4.4 / 18.2 | $4,500 | 2.39x | $5,400 | #1 |
| WR | Devaughn Vele | 9.4 | 4.1 / 17.6 | $5,200 | 1.80x | $6,000 | #1 |
| RB | Kendre Miller | 6.2 | 2.9 / 12.3 | $4,900 | 1.27x | $5,700 | #2 |
| TE | Noah Fant | 5.2 | 1.5 / 12.0 | $3,000 | 1.74x | $4,900 | #1 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Aaron Jones - rushing yards 71.5 - over - NO 30th run defense, 148 yds allowed.
- T.J. Hockenson - receptions 4.5 (o+120) - over - NO 25th vs TE, plus price.
- Alvin Kamara - rushing yards 33.5 - under - MIN #1 RB defense, 17.7 fpa.
- Tyler Shough - passing yards 235.5 - under - MIN #1 QB defense, 11.6 fpa.
Injuries
MIN 8 listed- Out Jordan Addison WR Hamstring Severe
- Out Max Brosmer QB Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Odell Beckham Jr. WR Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Charles Demmings CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Christian Darrisaw T Unknown Minimal
- Out Elijah Williams DE Unknown Minimal
- Out Jakobe Thomas FS Unknown Minimal
- Out Jamal Adams LB Unknown Minimal
NO 8 listed- Out Zach Wilson QB Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Anfernee Jennings OLB Unknown Minimal
- Out David Long DB Undisclosed Minimal
- Out Dillon Radunz G Unknown Minimal
- Out Jeremiah Wright G Unknown Minimal
- Out Kaden Elliss ILB Unknown Minimal
- Out Michael Reid CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Nathan Shepherd DT Illness Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- MIN is 4-0, NO 1-3 with three straight losses including 24-45 to ATL.
- Head-to-head split last two, MIN 27-19 in 2023, MIN 28-25 in 2022.
- Line flat since open, spread 1.5 and total 42.5 unmoved.
MIN last 5W 23-13 @ NOW 15-10 vs MIAW 23-16 @ TBW 9-3 @ CHIW 39-22 vs GB
NO last 5L 13-23 vs MINL 24-45 vs ATLL 27-35 vs LVW 24-17 @ BALL 30-31 @ DET
Head-to-head
- Oct 11, 2026 MIN 23 at NO 13
- Nov 12, 2023 NO 19 at MIN 27
- Oct 2, 2022 MIN 28 at NO 25
Watch list
- Justin Jefferson (ankle) questionable - his inactive status reshapes MIN passing and Jones usage.
- Alvin Kamara (back) questionable - absence pushes Kendre Miller into MIN's top run defense.
- Line stuck at 1.5 - any move signals sharp read on injury news.
Week 5 slate
All 15 games this week.
TB @ DAL
Thu 8:15 PM ET
DAL -7.5
O/U 48.5
Final
PHI @ JAX
Sun 9:30 AM ET
JAX -2.5
O/U 45.5
Final
CHI @ GB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -1.5
O/U 46.5
Final
CIN @ MIA
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -7
O/U 44.5
Final
CLE @ NYJ
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NYJ -2.5
O/U 38.5
Final
HOU @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
HOU -6.5
O/U 37.5
Final
IND @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
PIT -2.5
O/U 42.5
Final
LV @ NE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NE -3.5
O/U 45.5
Final
MIN @ NO
Sun 1:00 PM ET
MIN -1.5
O/U 42.5
Final
NYG @ WAS
Sun 1:00 PM ET
WAS -3.5
O/U 41.5
Final
DEN @ LAC
Sun 4:05 PM ET
DEN -3.5
O/U 42.5
Final
DET @ ARI
Sun 4:25 PM ET
DET -5.5
O/U 54.5
Final
SF @ SEA
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SEA -3
O/U 46.5
Final
BAL @ ATL
Sun 8:20 PM ET
ATL -3.5
O/U 43.5
Final
BUF @ LA
Mon 8:15 PM ET
BUF -1.5
O/U 51.5
Kicked off