Archived Week 5 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET · FOX · State Farm Stadium, Arizona
Indoor Final
Detroit Lions
2-2 · 3-2 last season
Final45
At
DET -5.5 Total 54.5 DET covered · Over
Arizona Cardinals
1-3 · 1-4 last season
Final21
Line movement open Oct 6
ARI spread
+5.5 +5.5
no move
Total
53.5 54.5
1.0
The angle, before kickoff
Play · 7/10
Total up to 54.5 with both defenses bottom-5, Goff smashes ARI's 28th pass defense.
SidePASSDET -5.5 fair but ARI faces the #32 pass defense at home as dog.
TotalBET OVER 54.5both defenses allow 29-plus points, four SMASH passing matchups.
Best bet
Over 54.5, with both defenses bottom-5 and the two QBs facing elite matchups in a dome.
Quick hits
- DET -5.5, total 54.5, implied DET 30.0 and ARI 24.5.
- High scoring: DET offense #4, both defenses allow 29-plus points per game.
- Goff vs ARI #28 QB defense and LaPorta vs #30 TE is a SMASH.
- DET leads and stays balanced at 62% pass, ARI chases through the air.
- Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch out guts an already #32 pass defense.
Key matchups
- Jacoby Brissett vs DET #32 QB defense: 25.4 fpa, SMASH, every ARI pass catcher lifts.
- Michael Wilson vs DET #32 WR defense: 41.7 fpa, SMASH, softest WR spot on board.
- Trey McBride vs DET #32 TE defense: 21.5 fpa, SMASH, elite ceiling 31.0.
- Jared Goff vs ARI #28 QB defense: 20.3 fpa, SMASH, proj 22.1.
- Sam LaPorta vs ARI #30 TE defense: 18.2 fpa, SMASH, cheap at $4900.
- Jahmyr Gibbs vs ARI #18 RB defense: 22.1 fpa, NEUTRAL, but 26.4 proj leads slate.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET |
Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 25.8 | $9,800 | ARI #25 of 32 | 24.8 | Favorable |
| DET |
Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 21.6 | $7,900 | ARI #26 of 32 | 36.2 | Smash |
| DET |
Jared Goff | QB | 19.8 | $6,600 | ARI #29 of 32 | 21.8 | Smash |
| DET |
Sam LaPorta | TE | 12.6 | $4,900 | ARI #28 of 32 | 18.8 | Smash |
| ARI |
Jacoby Brissett | QB | 20.6 | $5,500 | DET #32 of 32 | 25.6 | Smash |
| ARI |
Trey McBride | TE | 18.5 | $6,700 | DET #32 of 32 | 24.5 | Smash |
| ARI |
Michael Wilson | WR | 15.5 | $6,200 | DET #31 of 32 | 39.3 | Smash |
| ARI |
Jeremiyah Love | RB | 11.8 | $6,100 | DET #9 of 32 | 19.9 | Neutral |
DET skill positions vs ARI defenseQB
#29/32
21.8 fpa
RB
#25/32
24.8 fpa
WR
#26/32
36.2 fpa
TE
#28/32
18.8 fpa
ARI skill positions vs DET defenseQB
#32/32
25.6 fpa
RB
#9/32
19.9 fpa
WR
#31/32
39.3 fpa
TE
#32/32
24.5 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- Both top-7 in plays, 62% and 59% pass, fast pace fuels the 54.5.
- DET favored by 5.5 leads and leans balanced, ARI trails and throws.
- Points come from passing: DET 30.0 implied, ARI 24.5, both defenses allow 2.8 pass TD.
Projected points (market implied)
DET30.0
ARI24.5
Offense profile
DETRank of 32ARI
32.8
#1
Pts / G
21.6
#22
295.8
#3
Pass yds / G
223.4
#19
114.2
#14
Rush yds / G
91.6
#23
66.4
#6
Plays / G
66.8
#4
60%
Pass rate
62%
2.4
Pass TD / G
1.8
1.6
Rush TD / G
0.6
2.2
Sacks taken / G
2.4
0.0
INT thrown / G
1.0
Defense profile
DETRank of 32ARI
29.6
#29
Pts allowed / G
32.4
#32
321.4
#32
Pass yds allowed
251.2
#24
107.0
#15
Rush yds allowed
126.6
#24
4.0
Sacks / G
2.2
0.6
INT / G
0.6
2.8
Pass TD allowed
2.8
1.2
Rush TD allowed
1.2
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 5 games per team.
Weather
Indoor: no weather factor. State Farm Stadium is a covered venue.
- Indoor: no weather factor.
DFS
- Stack Goff with St. Brown and LaPorta against ARI's #28 and #30 units.
- Value LaPorta $4900 at 2.56x into #30 TE defense, SMASH.
- Fade Marvin Harrison Jr. at 1.80x despite matchup, proj only 7.9.
- Contrarian: Michael Wilson $6200 into #32 WR defense, 26.7 ceiling, lower owned than McBride.
DET projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 25.8 | 17.5 / 39.1 | $9,800 | 2.63x | $10,000 | #25 |
| WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 21.6 | 11.5 / 33.0 | $7,900 | 2.73x | $9,000 | #26 |
| QB | Jared Goff | 19.8 | 13.3 / 29.8 | $6,600 | 2.99x | $8,100 | #29 |
| TE | Sam LaPorta | 12.6 | 5.7 / 21.2 | $4,900 | 2.57x | $6,000 | #28 |
| WR | Jameson Williams | 11.5 | 4.8 / 21.8 | $5,900 | 1.94x | $6,500 | #26 |
| WR | Isaac TeSlaa | 6.0 | 1.5 / 12.8 | $3,400 | 1.77x | $5,400 | #26 |
| RB | Sione Vaki | 3.1 | 0.6 / 7.4 | $4,300 | 0.71x | $5,100 | #25 |
ARI projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | 20.6 | 12.2 / 28.2 | $5,500 | 3.75x | $6,800 | #32 |
| TE | Trey McBride | 18.5 | 10.4 / 30.4 | $6,700 | 2.77x | $7,200 | #32 |
| WR | Michael Wilson | 15.5 | 7.8 / 27.8 | $6,200 | 2.50x | $6,400 | #31 |
| RB | Jeremiyah Love | 11.8 | 6.3 / 20.4 | $6,100 | 1.93x | $6,600 | #9 |
| RB | Tyler Allgeier | 9.0 | 3.8 / 15.1 | $5,100 | 1.76x | $5,600 | #9 |
| WR | Kendrick Bourne | 7.8 | 2.5 / 14.2 | $3,400 | 2.30x | $4,900 | #31 |
| WR | Jalen Brooks | 3.5 | 0.0 / 10.2 | $3,000 | 1.16x | $4,200 | #31 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Jared Goff - passing yards 279.5 - lean over - vs #28 QB defense, proj 22.1.
- Trey McBride - receptions 7.5 - lean over - vs #32 TE defense, proj 19.3.
- Sam LaPorta - receiving yards 51.5 - lean over - vs #30 TE defense, SMASH.
- Michael Wilson - receptions 6.5 - lean over - vs #32 WR defense, 41.7 fpa.
Injuries
DET 8 listed- Out Jackson Meeks TE Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Ahmed Hassanein DE Unknown Minimal
- Out Ben Bartch G Unknown Minimal
- Out Bishop Fitzgerald FS Unknown Minimal
- Out Giovanni Manu OT Knee Minimal
- Out Kerby Joseph FS Knee Minimal
- Out Mekhi Wingo DT Unknown Minimal
- Out Rock Ya-Sin CB Unknown Minimal
ARI 8 listed- Out Carson Beck QB Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Jameson Geers TE Unknown Severe
- Out Trey Benson RB Knee Severe
- Out Andrew Billings DT Unknown Minimal
- Out Andrew Wingard FS Unknown Minimal
- Out Chase Bisontis G Unknown Minimal
- Out Starling Thomas V CB Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Wydett Williams Jr. FS Unknown Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- DET 2-2, lost 26-32 at CAR last week; ARI 1-3 on a three-game skid.
- H2H: DET won 20-13 at ARI in 2024, DET 30-12 in 2021.
- Total moved 53.5 to 54.5, spread held at 5.5.
DET last 5W 45-21 @ ARIL 26-32 @ CARW 31-24 vs NYJL 31-41 @ BUFW 31-30 vs NO
ARI last 5L 21-45 vs DETL 24-36 @ NYGL 30-36 @ SFL 7-31 vs SEAW 26-14 @ LAC
Head-to-head
- Oct 11, 2026 DET 45 at ARI 21
- Sep 22, 2024 DET 20 at ARI 13
- Dec 19, 2021 ARI 12 at DET 30
Watch list
- Rock Ya-Sin CB questionable: his status widens DET's #32 pass defense further.
- Ben Bartch and Tyleik Williams questionable: interior status affects run and pressure.
- Total line: already up to 54.5, watch for further steam toward the over.
Week 5 slate
All 15 games this week.
TB @ DAL
Thu 8:15 PM ET
DAL -7.5
O/U 48.5
Final
PHI @ JAX
Sun 9:30 AM ET
JAX -2.5
O/U 45.5
Final
CHI @ GB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -1.5
O/U 46.5
Final
CIN @ MIA
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -7
O/U 44.5
Final
CLE @ NYJ
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NYJ -2.5
O/U 38.5
Final
HOU @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
HOU -6.5
O/U 37.5
Final
IND @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
PIT -2.5
O/U 42.5
Final
LV @ NE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NE -3.5
O/U 45.5
Final
MIN @ NO
Sun 1:00 PM ET
MIN -1.5
O/U 42.5
Final
NYG @ WAS
Sun 1:00 PM ET
WAS -3.5
O/U 41.5
Final
DEN @ LAC
Sun 4:05 PM ET
DEN -3.5
O/U 42.5
Final
DET @ ARI
Sun 4:25 PM ET
DET -5.5
O/U 54.5
Final
SF @ SEA
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SEA -3
O/U 46.5
Final
BAL @ ATL
Sun 8:20 PM ET
ATL -3.5
O/U 43.5
Final
BUF @ LA
Mon 8:15 PM ET
BUF -1.5
O/U 51.5
Kicked off