Archived Week 5 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Sun Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET · CBS · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
Division Indoor Final
Denver Broncos
2-2 · 3-2 last season
Final23
At
DEN -3.5 Total 42.5 DEN covered · Under
Los Angeles Chargers
0-4 · 0-5 last season
Final17
Line movement open Oct 6
LAC spread
+3.5 +3.5
no move
Total
42.5 42.5
no move
The angle, before kickoff
Pass · 2/10
DEN -3.5 on the road against 0-4 LAC, but implied margin is exactly 3.5 with no edge.
SideBET AWAY -3.5DEN implied 23.0 and beat this LAC team 19-3 last meeting.
TotalPASSprojected total 42.5 sits exactly on the line.
Best bet
Gadsden at $3600 into DEN's #24 TE defense is the cleanest value and matchup edge on the slate.
Quick hits
- Market: DEN -3.5, total 42.5, implied DEN 23.0 / LAC 19.5.
- Low scoring: two bottom-10 offenses (DEN pts #27, LAC #29) with a 42.5 line.
- Gadsden vs DEN #24 TE defense is the one clean edge on the board.
- DEN leads, grinds; LAC 0-4 chases pass-heavy against a #7 WR unit.
- Surtain (CB) and McConkey (WR) questionable; both shift the WR matchups.
Key matchups
- Oronde Gadsden II vs DEN #24 TE: 15.0 fpa, FAVORABLE, best spot in game.
- Bo Nix vs LAC #6 QB: 15.8 fpa, TOUGH, capped ceiling for $5600.
- Evan Engram vs LAC #7 TE: 10.3 fpa, TOUGH, avoid at any price.
- Tre' Harris vs DEN #7 WR: 28.3 fpa, TOUGH, stingiest pass spot.
- Jaylen Waddle vs LAC #14 WR: 31.0 fpa, NEUTRAL, volume play proj 14.2.
- Omarion Hampton vs DEN #15 RB: 21.7 fpa, NEUTRAL, average run matchup.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN |
Bo Nix | QB | 16.8 | $5,600 | LAC #4 of 32 | 15.0 | Tough |
| DEN |
Jaylen Waddle | WR | 12.8 | $6,100 | LAC #10 of 32 | 30.2 | Neutral |
| DEN |
RJ Harvey | RB | 11.8 | $5,200 | LAC #12 of 32 | 20.7 | Neutral |
| DEN |
Evan Engram | TE | 5.5 | $2,800 | LAC #2 of 32 | 9.4 | Tough |
| LAC |
Justin Herbert | QB | 15.8 | $5,100 | DEN #11 of 32 | 16.2 | Neutral |
| LAC |
Tre' Harris | WR | 11.3 | $4,100 | DEN #4 of 32 | 26.9 | Tough |
| LAC |
Omarion Hampton | RB | 10.3 | $6,000 | DEN #14 of 32 | 20.8 | Neutral |
| LAC |
Oronde Gadsden II | TE | 8.4 | $3,600 | DEN #20 of 32 | 14.9 | Favorable |
DEN skill positions vs LAC defenseQB
#4/32
15.0 fpa
RB
#12/32
20.7 fpa
WR
#10/32
30.2 fpa
TE
#2/32
9.4 fpa
LAC skill positions vs DEN defenseQB
#11/32
16.2 fpa
RB
#14/32
20.8 fpa
WR
#4/32
26.9 fpa
TE
#20/32
14.9 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- DEN 58 plays (#25) at 60% pass; LAC 61 plays at 52% pass.
- DEN favored, leans run late; LAC trails and throws to chase 19.5.
- Points thin: both under 1.5 pass TD per game, 42.5 total.
Projected points (market implied)
DEN23.0
LAC19.5
Offense profile
DENRank of 32LAC
19.4
#26
Pts / G
16.8
#30
188.8
#27
Pass yds / G
187.4
#29
86.2
#25
Rush yds / G
128.2
#9
57.4
#29
Plays / G
61.6
#17
58%
Pass rate
49%
1.2
Pass TD / G
1.0
0.6
Rush TD / G
0.8
1.2
Sacks taken / G
3.4
0.6
INT thrown / G
1.4
Defense profile
DENRank of 32LAC
22.2
#14
Pts allowed / G
25.8
#22
220.4
#9
Pass yds allowed
207.8
#6
145.2
#29
Rush yds allowed
118.6
#22
2.6
Sacks / G
2.2
1.0
INT / G
0.8
1.4
Pass TD allowed
1.4
1.0
Rush TD allowed
1.4
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 5 games per team.
Weather
Indoor: no weather factor. SoFi Stadium is a covered venue.
- Indoor: no weather factor.
DFS
- Stack: Nix plus Waddle, the only reliable DEN pass combo.
- Value: Gadsden $3600 at 2.82x into #24 TE defense.
- Fade: Hampton $6000 at 1.78x, neutral spot, poor return.
- Contrarian: Keaton Mitchell $4500 at 2.23x in a chase script.
DEN projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Bo Nix | 16.8 | 11.1 / 26.0 | $5,600 | 3.00x | $7,500 | #4 |
| WR | Jaylen Waddle | 12.8 | 6.3 / 23.9 | $6,100 | 2.11x | $6,600 | #10 |
| RB | RJ Harvey | 11.8 | 6.7 / 17.6 | $5,200 | 2.27x | $6,300 | #12 |
| RB | J.K. Dobbins | 9.4 | 4.5 / 15.9 | $5,000 | 1.87x | $5,900 | #12 |
| WR | Courtland Sutton | 8.9 | 3.4 / 16.2 | $4,600 | 1.94x | $5,900 | #10 |
| TE | Evan Engram | 5.5 | 1.6 / 11.4 | $2,800 | 1.97x | $4,900 | #2 |
| WR | Troy Franklin | 3.7 | 0.0 / 9.5 | $3,200 | 1.17x | $4,300 | #10 |
LAC projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Justin Herbert | 15.8 | 9.5 / 22.8 | $5,100 | 3.10x | $7,100 | #11 |
| WR | Tre' Harris doubtful | 11.3 | 4.6 / 18.3 | $4,100 | 2.75x | $5,500 | #4 |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | 10.3 | 4.8 / 17.1 | $6,000 | 1.71x | $7,100 | #14 |
| RB | Keaton Mitchell | 9.5 | 4.7 / 15.5 | $4,500 | 2.12x | $5,300 | #14 |
| TE | Oronde Gadsden II | 8.4 | 3.1 / 15.7 | $3,600 | 2.32x | $5,000 | #20 |
| WR | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 4.9 | 0.0 / 11.5 | $3,300 | 1.49x | $4,200 | #4 |
| RB | Kimani Vidal | 4.8 | 1.6 / 11.4 | $4,300 | 1.12x | $4,400 | #14 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Jaylen Waddle - receptions o4.5 (-130) - lean over - top target, proj 14.2.
- Bo Nix - passing yards o220.5 (-112) - lean under - vs #6 QB defense, proj 18.1.
- J.K. Dobbins - rushing yards o52.5 (-111) - lean over - lead back vs #14 RB.
- Justin Herbert - passing yards o201.5 (-112) - lean over - #12 matchup, proj 15.9.
Injuries
DEN 8 listed- Out Dallen Bentley TE Unknown Severe
- Out Sam Ehlinger QB Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Jonathon Cooper OLB Colo. Minimal
- Out Jordan Jackson DE Unknown Minimal
- Out Kage Casey OT Unknown Minimal
- Out Levelle Bailey ILB Leg Minimal
- Out Matt Henningsen DE Unknown Minimal
- Out Michael Deiter C Unknown Minimal
LAC 8 listed- Out Brenen Thompson WR Unknown Severe
- Out Quentin Johnston WR Unknown Severe
- Out Derwin James FS Unknown Minimal
- Out Donte Jackson CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Isaiah World OT Unknown Minimal
- Out Joe Alt T Unknown Minimal
- Out Kayode Awosika G Unknown Minimal
- Out Rodney Shelley CB Hamstring Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- Form: LAC 0-4, lost last five; DEN 2-2 with a Week 3 win over LAC.
- H2H: last three decided by 6 or fewer, DEN won last 19-3.
- Line: spread frozen at 3.5, total flat at 42.5 since open.
DEN last 5W 23-17 @ LACL 14-24 @ SFW 30-26 vs LAW 20-13 vs JAXL 10-31 @ KC
LAC last 5L 17-23 vs DENL 23-30 @ SEAL 16-24 @ BUFL 14-26 vs LVL 14-26 vs ARI
Head-to-head
- Oct 11, 2026 DEN 23 at LAC 17
- Jan 4, 2026 LAC 3 at DEN 19
- Sep 21, 2025 DEN 20 at LAC 23
Watch list
- Patrick Surtain II (CB, Q) - his status swings the Harris and Johnston matchups.
- Ladd McConkey (WR, Q) and Johnston (listed out) - LAC passing game depth.
- Riley Moss (CB, Q) - second DEN corner, widens the LAC WR ceiling if out.
- Spread at 3.5 - any move off the key number before kickoff.
Week 5 slate
All 15 games this week.
TB @ DAL
Thu 8:15 PM ET
DAL -7.5
O/U 48.5
Final
PHI @ JAX
Sun 9:30 AM ET
JAX -2.5
O/U 45.5
Final
CHI @ GB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -1.5
O/U 46.5
Final
CIN @ MIA
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -7
O/U 44.5
Final
CLE @ NYJ
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NYJ -2.5
O/U 38.5
Final
HOU @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
HOU -6.5
O/U 37.5
Final
IND @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
PIT -2.5
O/U 42.5
Final
LV @ NE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NE -3.5
O/U 45.5
Final
MIN @ NO
Sun 1:00 PM ET
MIN -1.5
O/U 42.5
Final
NYG @ WAS
Sun 1:00 PM ET
WAS -3.5
O/U 41.5
Final
DEN @ LAC
Sun 4:05 PM ET
DEN -3.5
O/U 42.5
Final
DET @ ARI
Sun 4:25 PM ET
DET -5.5
O/U 54.5
Final
SF @ SEA
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SEA -3
O/U 46.5
Final
BAL @ ATL
Sun 8:20 PM ET
ATL -3.5
O/U 43.5
Final
BUF @ LA
Mon 8:15 PM ET
BUF -1.5
O/U 51.5
Kicked off