Archived Week 2 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay
Final
Cleveland Browns
0-1 · 6-11 last season
Final23
At
TB -9.5 Total 38.5 CLE covered · Over
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0-1 · 6-11 last season
Final19
Line movement open Sep 15
TB spread
-8.5 -9.5
1.0
Total
41.5 38.5
3.0
The angle, before kickoff
Lean · 4/10
TB -8.5 with a 25.0 implied total, but 24 mph wind flags the 41.5 under.
SidePASSmodel margin 8.5 equals the spread exactly, no edge.
TotalBET UNDER 41.524 mph wind and CLE #31 offense suppress scoring.
Best bet
Under 41.5 is the highest-conviction play, wind gusting 29 with a bottom-five CLE offense.
Quick hits
- TB -8.5, total 41.5, implied CLE 16.5 and TB 25.0.
- Low-scoring: CLE offense ranks 31st in points, wind suppresses passing.
- Harold Fannin vs TB TE defense #31 (18.7 fpa) is the softest spot.
- TB leads and controls with Bucky Irving; CLE passing capped, plays from behind.
- mph wind gusting 29 pulls the total down and hurts both aerials.
Key matchups
- Fannin vs TB TE #31 (18.7 fpa): softest matchup, SMASH tag, $4100.
- Watson vs TB QB #28 (20.8 fpa): great rank but 14.1 proj caps ceiling.
- Concepcion vs TB WR #6 (28.5 fpa): stingiest spot, TOUGH, avoid.
- Irving vs CLE RB #13 (22.3 fpa): neutral, 13.3 proj leads all backs.
- Egbuka vs CLE WR #13 (30.1 fpa): neutral, wind trims his 52.5 yard prop.
- Mayfield vs CLE QB #9 (16.2 fpa): neutral, CLE pass D ranks 4th in yards.
CLE skill positions vs TB defenseQB
#28/32
20.6 fpa
RB
#10/32
21.4 fpa
WR
#10/32
28.8 fpa
TE
#30/32
18.7 fpa
TB skill positions vs CLE defenseQB
#9/32
15.7 fpa
RB
#11/32
21.5 fpa
WR
#16/32
30.0 fpa
TE
#13/32
12.2 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- TB runs 62 plays at 54% pass; CLE just 58 plays, 55% pass.
- TB favored by 8.5 leads and leans run with Irving; CLE forced to throw.
- Points skew TB 25.0 vs 16.5; wind and CLE #31 offense cap red-zone output.
Projected points (market implied)
CLE14.5
TB24.0
Offense profile
CLERank of 32TB
16.4
#31
Pts / G
22.5
#17
181.6
#31
Pass yds / G
222.3
#18
95.1
#28
Rush yds / G
111.9
#19
58.3
#28
Plays / G
62.0
#15
55%
Pass rate
54%
0.9
Pass TD / G
1.3
0.5
Rush TD / G
0.8
3.2
Sacks taken / G
2.4
0.9
INT thrown / G
0.7
Defense profile
CLERank of 32TB
22.0
#12
Pts allowed / G
25.2
#24
194.8
#3
Pass yds allowed
254.1
#29
126.5
#23
Rush yds allowed
98.9
#4
3.0
Sacks / G
2.1
0.7
INT / G
0.8
1.5
Pass TD allowed
1.8
0.8
Rush TD allowed
0.9
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-21, 21 games per team.
Weather
At kickoff · 2026-09-20 18:00 local
Moderate impact
Conditions
Sunny
Temp
73°F
feels 58°
Wind
25 mph W
gusts 30 mph
Rain
1%
0.00 in
Humidity
38%
- Wind 25 mph (gusts 29): deep passing and kicking suffer, lean under
WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface
- mph W wind, gusts 29, sunny 72F, 1% rain, deep passing and kicking suffer.
- DraftEdge reads moderate impact and leans under; trim QB and WR ceilings.
DFS
- Stack Mayfield ($5600) with Irving ($6100) for the game-script bring-back.
- Value: Cade Otton $3400 at 2.14x, neutral TE matchup, cheap ceiling.
- Fade: Concepcion into TB WR #6, toughest spot on the slate.
- Contrarian: Fannin $4100 vs TE #31, SMASH tag at low ownership.[/Contrarian]
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Harold Fannin - receptions 4.5 (o+126) - lean over - TB TE defense ranks 31st.
- Bucky Irving - rushing yards 63.5 (o+145) - lean over - 13.3 proj, script-favored back.
- Emeka Egbuka - receiving yards 52.5 (o+135) - lean under - 24 mph wind caps deep looks.
- Baker Mayfield - passing yards 216.5 (o+175) - lean under - wind plus CLE pass D #4.
Injuries
CLE 8 listed- Out Joe Royer TE Personal Severe
- Out Taylen Green QB Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Damarri Mathis CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Daniel Thomas FS Unknown Minimal
- Out Edefuan Ulofoshio LB Biceps Minimal
- Out Elijah Chatman DT Quadriceps Minimal
- Out Justin Jefferson LB Unknown Minimal
- Out Kendrick Green G Unknown Minimal
TB 8 listed- Out David Sills WR Undisclosed Severe
- Out Ayden Garnes CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Billy Schrauth G Unknown Minimal
- Out DeMonte Capehart DT Unknown Minimal
- Out Elijah Simmons DT Unknown Minimal
- Out Jacob Parrish CB Back Minimal
- Out Luke Haggard G Unknown Minimal
- Out Mohamed Kamara OLB Knee Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- CLE lost 10-34 at JAX last out; TB fell 27-33 at CIN, both 0-1.
- H2H: last meeting CLE 23 TB 17 in 2022.
- Line static: spread 8.5 and total 41.5 unchanged since open, no market lean.
CLE last 5W 23-19 @ TBL 10-34 @ JAXW 20-18 @ CINW 13-6 vs PITL 20-23 vs BUF
TB last 5L 19-23 vs CLEL 27-33 @ CINW 16-14 vs CARL 17-20 @ MIAL 20-23 @ CAR
Head-to-head
- Sep 20, 2026 CLE 23 at TB 19
- Nov 27, 2022 TB 17 at CLE 23
Watch list
- Wind speed at kickoff: sustained 24 mph reinforces the under.
- Elgton Jenkins (G, back): status affects CLE pass protection versus TB rush.
- Jacob Parrish (CB, back): TB secondary depth if out helps CLE receivers.
Week 2 slate
Swipe for all 16 games this week.
DET @ BUF
Thu 8:15 PM ET
BUF -20.5
O/U 58.5
Final
CAR @ ATL
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CAR -30.5
O/U 37.5
Final
CIN @ HOU
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -13.5
O/U 31.5
Final
CLE @ TB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TB -9.5
O/U 38.5
Final
GB @ NYJ
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NYJ -2.5
O/U 37.5
Final
MIN @ CHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
MIN -1.5
O/U 24.5
Final
NO @ BAL
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -11.5
O/U 39.5
Final
PHI @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
PHI -6.5
O/U 43.5
Final
PIT @ NE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NE -7.5
O/U 28.5
Final
JAX @ DEN
Sun 4:05 PM ET
DEN -7.5
O/U 35.5
Final
LV @ LAC
Sun 4:05 PM ET
LAC -5.5
O/U 40.5
Final
MIA @ SF
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SF -29.5
O/U 41.5
Final
SEA @ ARI
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SEA -18.5
O/U 37.5
Final
WAS @ DAL
Sun 4:25 PM ET
DAL -16.5
O/U 53.5
Final
IND @ KC
Sun 8:20 PM ET
KC -6.5
O/U 45.5
Final
NYG @ LA
Mon 8:15 PM ET
LA -6.5
O/U 47.5
Kicked off