Archived Week 2 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · FOX · Levi's Stadium, San Francisco Final

Miami Dolphins

0-1 · 7-9 last season

Final13

At SF -29.5 Total 41.5 MIA covered · Over

San Francisco 49ers

1-0 · 13-6 last season

Final35

Line movement open Sep 15 SF spread -13.5 -29.5 16.0 Total 45.5 41.5 4.0

The angle, before kickoff Play · 6/10

SF -13.5 with McCaffrey a SMASH into Miami's 31st-ranked run defense.

SidePASSimplied margin 13.5 equals the spread exactly, no edge.

TotalPASSprojected total sits right on 45.5.

Best bet

Christian McCaffrey over 61.5 rushing yards against Miami's 31st-ranked run defense.

Quick hits

Market SF -13.5, total 45.5, implied MIA 16.0 SF 29.5.
Balanced-to-moderate scoring, SF implied 29.5 carries the total near 45.5.
McCaffrey vs MIA RB defense #31 of 32 is the decisive edge.
SF leads throughout, run-leaning script; Miami trails and passes with Willis.
Kittle questionable (Achilles) shifts TE targets if he sits.

Key matchups

McCaffrey vs MIA RB #31 of 32: 28.2 fpa, SMASH, elite spot.
Kittle vs MIA TE #25: 15.1 fpa, favorable, elite trend.
Purdy vs MIA QB #23: 18.7 fpa, favorable, projects 20.6.
Achane vs SF RB #21: 24.5 fpa, favorable, projects 14.1.
Willis vs SF QB #8: 15.9 fpa, avoid, projects 14.9.
Mike Evans vs SF WR #9: 29.7 fpa allowed but rank stingy, neutral.

MIA skill positions vs SF defense

#8/32

15.3 fpa

Avoid

#19/32

22.7 fpa

Good

#14/32

29.5 fpa

Bad

#16/32

12.6 fpa

Average

SF skill positions vs MIA defense

#26/32

20.3 fpa

Elite

#31/32

27.9 fpa

Elite

#9/32

28.8 fpa

Bad

#26/32

15.5 fpa

Elite

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

SF pass rate 54%, 62 plays; Miami 56 plays #31, slow and trailing.
Favorite SF runs to McCaffrey and clock; MIA forced to pass down 13.5.
Points from SF's 29.5 implied; MIA capped at 16.0 with backup Willis.

Projected points (market implied)

MIA6.0

SF35.5

Offense profile

MIARank of 32SF

19.8 #25 Pts / G 25.5 #10

195.9 #26 Pass yds / G 246.9 #7

121.9 #10 Rush yds / G 109.1 #23

56.1 #31 Plays / G 61.7 #17

50% Pass rate 54%

1.2 Pass TD / G 1.9

0.9 Rush TD / G 0.9

2.4 Sacks taken / G 1.4

0.9 INT thrown / G 0.9

Defense profile

MIARank of 32SF

24.3 #20 Pts allowed / G 21.9 #11

228.6 #17 Pass yds allowed 232.7 #18

127.6 #24 Rush yds allowed 114.1 #14

2.1 Sacks / G 1.2

0.7 INT / G 0.4

1.8 Pass TD allowed 1.5

1.1 Rush TD allowed 0.9

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-21, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-20 13:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

60°F

feels 57°

Wind

9 mph WSW

gusts 10 mph

Rain

23%

0.00 in

Humidity

79%

Overcast, 60F, wind 8 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Overcast, 61F, wind 9 mph, rain 23% but 0.00 in/hr.
No weather factor; passing and kicking unaffected.

DFS

Stack Purdy ($6200) with McCaffrey ($8000) into MIA's soft front.
Value: Deebo Samuel $5300 at 1.92x, dual-threat usage.
Fade: Mike Evans $6600 at 1.56x, tough #9 WR matchup.
Contrarian: Achane $6700, negative script boosts receiving volume vs #21 RB.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Christian McCaffrey - rushing yards 61.5 - over - MIA RB defense #31, 28.2 fpa.
Christian McCaffrey - receptions 4.5 - over - projected 17.4, checkdown volume.
Brock Purdy - passing yards 238.5 - over - MIA QB #23, favorable.
De'Von Achane - rushing yards 60.5 - over - SF RB #21, favorable spot.

All MIA and SF props with AI grades

Injuries

MIA 8 listed

Out Brady Cook QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Jalen Tolbert WR Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Justin Joly TE Unknown Severe
Out Chop Robinson DE Unknown Minimal
Out DJ Campbell G Unknown Minimal
Out Marcellas Dial CB Unknown Minimal
Out Rene Konga DT Unknown Minimal
Quest. Caleb Douglas WR Ankle Minimal

SF 8 listed

Out Jordan Watkins WR Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Kurtis Rourke QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Ricky Pearsall WR Unknown Severe
Out Andrew Farmer DE Back Minimal
Out Enrique Cruz Jr. OT Unknown Minimal
Out Ephesians Prysock CB Unknown Minimal
Out Mikail Kamara DE Knee Minimal
Out Mykel Williams DE Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

SF 1-0, beat LA 27-7; MIA 0-1, lost 13-27 at LV.
H2H: Miami won last meeting 29-17 in 2024.
Line static: spread -13.5 and total 45.5 unmoved since open.

MIA last 5

L 13-35 @ SFL 13-27 @ LVL 10-38 @ NEW 20-17 vs TBL 21-45 vs CIN

SF last 5

W 35-13 vs MIAW 27-7 @ LAL 6-41 @ SEAW 23-19 @ PHIL 3-13 vs SEA

Head-to-head

Sep 20, 2026 MIA 13 at SF 35
Dec 22, 2024 SF 17 at MIA 29
Dec 4, 2022 MIA 17 at SF 33

Watch list

George Kittle (Achilles) questionable; his status swings TE targets to Deebo and McCaffrey.
Kaelon Black (groin) questionable; out means more McCaffrey volume.
Line frozen at -13.5; any late move signals sharp lean.

Week 2 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

DET @ BUF