Archived Week 2 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore Final

New Orleans Saints

0-1 · 7-10 last season

Final24

At BAL -11.5 Total 39.5 NO covered · Over

Baltimore Ravens

1-0 · 8-9 last season

Final17

Line movement open Sep 15 BAL spread -8.5 -11.5 3.0 Total 47.5 39.5 8.0

The angle, before kickoff Pass · 3/10

Baltimore -8.5 with the model margin at exactly 8.5, no cushion on a steep number.

SidePASSmodel margin is exactly 8.5, no edge on the number.

TotalBET UNDER 46.5both WR1s banged up and Lamar faces NO's #4 QB defense.

Best bet

Derrick Henry over 93.5 rushing yards, proj 20.5 into NO's #24 run defense.

Quick hits

BAL -8.5, total 46.5, implied NO 19.0 and BAL 27.5.
Balanced scoring, model lands the total right at 46.5 with a run-first Ravens.
Derrick Henry vs NO #24 run defense is the game's decisive edge.
BAL leads and grinds clock, 45% pass rate and #1 rush attack dictate script.
Olave questionable and Flowers doubtful thin both passing games.

Key matchups

Chris Olave vs BAL #26 WR: 34.2 fpa, SMASH, but questionable with a hamstring.
Derrick Henry vs NO #24 RB: 24.8 fpa, FAVORABLE, proj 20.5 leads the slate.
Lamar Jackson vs NO #4 QB: 14.4 fpa, TOUGH, Saints stingy through the air.
Zay Flowers vs NO #7 WR: 28.6 fpa, TOUGH and doubtful anyway.
Juwan Johnson vs BAL #5 TE: 10.9 fpa, TOUGH, avoid this spot.
Mark Andrews vs NO #9 TE: 11.8 fpa, NEUTRAL, safe short-area target.

NO skill positions vs BAL defense

#16/32

17.9 fpa

Average

#17/32

22.1 fpa

Average

#26/32

34.8 fpa

Elite

#6/32

11.2 fpa

Avoid

BAL skill positions vs NO defense

#5/32

14.6 fpa

Avoid

#24/32

24.3 fpa

Good

#13/32

29.1 fpa

Bad

#10/32

11.6 fpa

Bad

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

BAL runs 58 plays at 45% pass, slowest pass rate in the read; NO faster at 64 plays.
Ravens lead and lean Henry, Saints trail and throw at 58% but rush ranks #31.
Points skew Baltimore, 27.5 implied and 1.5 rush TD per game fuel the red zone.

Projected points (market implied)

NO14.0

BAL25.5

Offense profile

NORank of 32BAL

19.2 #28 Pts / G 23.6 #13

251.1 #6 Pass yds / G 200.4 #25

90.1 #31 Rush yds / G 158.2 #1

64.1 #5 Plays / G 58.3 #27

58% Pass rate 45%

1.2 Pass TD / G 1.1

0.6 Rush TD / G 1.5

3.1 Sacks taken / G 2.6

0.8 INT thrown / G 0.7

Defense profile

NORank of 32BAL

22.6 #15 Pts allowed / G 22.8 #16

197.3 #5 Pass yds allowed 247.6 #25

123.5 #21 Rush yds allowed 103.4 #7

2.4 Sacks / G 1.9

0.6 INT / G 0.6

1.4 Pass TD allowed 1.2

0.9 Rush TD allowed 1.1

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-21, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-20 13:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Patchy rain nearby

Temp

78°F

feels 80°

Wind

7 mph WSW

gusts 14 mph

Rain

13%

0.00 in

Humidity

66%

Patchy rain nearby, 78F, wind 6 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

F, wind 9 mph, rain chance 11%, precip 0.00 in/hr: no weather factor.
Passing, kicking and totals unaffected, no DFS adjustment needed.

DFS

Stack Lamar Jackson with Mark Andrews, the safest Ravens passing correlation.
Value: Mark Andrews $4400 at 2.28x with a neutral TE matchup.
Fade Zay Flowers $6700, doubtful and vs NO #7 WR.
Contrarian: Olave $7200 vs #26 WR if he clears the hamstring, ceiling 22.7.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Derrick Henry - rushing yards 93.5 - lean over - FAVORABLE vs NO #24 run defense.
Mark Andrews - receptions 4.5 (+120) - lean over - proj 10.0 vs #9 TE, plus price.
Lamar Jackson - rushing yards 39.5 - lean over - dual-threat floor vs tough pass matchup.
Chris Olave - receptions 5.5 - lean over if active - vs #26 WR, 34.2 fpa.

All NO and BAL props with AI grades