Archived Week 2 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · Gillette Stadium, New England Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

1-0 · 10-8 last season

Final3

At NE -7.5 Total 28.5 NE covered · Under

New England Patriots

0-1 · 17-4 last season

Final20

Line movement open Sep 15 NE spread -4.5 -7.5 3.0 Total 42.5 28.5 14.0

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 4/10

NE -4.5 with the NFL's #2 scoring defense hosting a #21 Steelers offense.

SideBET HOME -4.5NE's #2 defense faces PIT's #21 offense, implied margin exactly 4.5.

TotalBET UNDER 41.5NE #2 points and #1 pass defense; total already dropped a full point.

Best bet

Under 41.5, backed by New England's #2 scoring defense against Pittsburgh's #21 offense.

Quick hits

NE -4.5, total 41.5, implied NE 23.0 / PIT 18.5.
Low scoring: NE defense ranks #2 points, #1 pass; PIT offense ranks #21.
Decisive spot: PIT's #22 pass, #26 rush attack into a top-2 New England defense.
Script: NE leads and controls clock, 50% pass rate, ground-heavy game flow.
Swing factor: A.J. Brown on IR thins NE's passing ceiling.

Key matchups

Rhamondre Stevenson vs PIT #20 RB defense: 24.1 fpa, favorable, best matchup on board.
Drake Maye vs PIT #16 QB defense: 17.8 fpa, neutral, proj 18.1.
DK Metcalf vs NE #18 WR defense: 30.3 fpa, neutral, proj 8.9.
Aaron Rodgers vs NE #6 QB defense: 15.0 fpa, tough, proj just 13.5.
Jaylen Warren vs NE #5 RB defense: 18.4 fpa, tough, proj 11.0.
Pat Freiermuth vs NE #8 TE defense: 11.6 fpa, tough, proj 5.6.

PIT skill positions vs NE defense

#3/32

13.6 fpa

Avoid

#6/32

18.3 fpa

Avoid

#12/32

29.1 fpa

Bad

#7/32

11.2 fpa

Avoid

NE skill positions vs PIT defense

#12/32

16.4 fpa

Bad

#22/32

23.1 fpa

Good

#6/32

28.4 fpa

Avoid

#20/32

13.0 fpa

Good

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

NE 62 plays, 50% pass rate; game flow points to run-lean control.
NE favored to lead, PIT chases from behind through a hostile pass matchup.
Points scarce: implied 23.0 vs 18.5, both defenses top-11 in points allowed.

Projected points (market implied)

PIT10.5

NE18.0

Offense profile

PITRank of 32NE

20.8 #23 Pts / G 25.8 #9

207.4 #24 Pass yds / G 245.6 #8

102.4 #26 Rush yds / G 129.8 #6

59.0 #23 Plays / G 61.9 #16

58% Pass rate 49%

1.2 Pass TD / G 1.7

0.9 Rush TD / G 1.1

1.9 Sacks taken / G 3.2

0.5 INT thrown / G 0.7

Defense profile

PITRank of 32NE

21.5 #10 Pts allowed / G 16.4 #2

251.6 #28 Pass yds allowed 187.1 #1

113.5 #13 Rush yds allowed 102.6 #6

3.1 Sacks / G 2.1

0.9 INT / G 0.7

1.6 Pass TD allowed 1.2

0.4 Rush TD allowed 0.5

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-21, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-20 12:00 local Moderate impact

Conditions

Patchy rain nearby

Temp

84°F

feels 93°

Wind

17 mph E

gusts 18 mph

Rain

26%

0.00 in

Humidity

76%

Wind 17 mph: field goals past 45 and deep shots get harder

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

F, wind 10 mph ENE, rain chance 29%, precip 0.00 in/hr, minor impact.
Wind touches only long kicks; passing and totals largely unaffected.

DFS

Stack: Maye ($6100) with Stevenson ($5700), NE controls the script.
Value: DeMario Douglas $3800 at 2.01x with Brown on IR opening targets.
Fade: Aaron Rodgers $5100 into NE's #6 QB defense, proj 13.5.
Contrarian: DK Metcalf $5200, neutral #18 matchup, 16.7 ceiling if PIT trails.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Rhamondre Stevenson - rushing yards 48.5 - lean over - PIT #20 vs RB, 24.1 fpa.
Drake Maye - passing tds 1.5 - lean over - proj 18.1, NE #9 offense.
Jaylen Warren - rushing yards 43.5 - lean under - NE #5 vs RB, 18.4 fpa.
Aaron Rodgers - passing yards 204.5 - lean under - NE #1 pass defense, 187 allowed.

All PIT and NE props with AI grades

Injuries

PIT 8 listed

Out Cole Burgess WR Unknown Severe
Out Drew Allar QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Michael Pittman WR Foot Severe
Out Will Howard QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Donte Kent CB Undisclosed Minimal
Out Gabriel Rubio DT Unknown Minimal
Out Gennings Dunker G Unknown Minimal
Out Jack Driscoll OT Undisclosed Minimal

NE 8 listed

Out Behren Morton QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Myles Montgomery RB Unknown Severe
Out Tanner Arkin TE Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Brenden Schooler FS Unknown Minimal
Out Carlton Davis CB Neck Minimal
Out Dametrious Crownover T Unknown Minimal
Out Harold Landry III OLB Undisclosed Minimal
Out Leonard Taylor III DE Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

PIT 1-0, NE 0-1; PIT won last meeting 21-14 on 2025-09-21.
PIT has won last of three H2H, NE took 2023 and 2022 games.
Total dropped 42.5 to 41.5; spread held at NE -4.5.

PIT last 5

L 3-20 @ NEW 20-13 vs ATLL 6-30 vs HOUW 26-24 vs BALL 6-13 @ CLE

NE last 5

W 20-3 vs PITL 10-13 @ SEAL 13-29 vs SEAW 10-7 @ DENW 28-16 vs HOU

Head-to-head

Sep 20, 2026 PIT 3 at NE 20
Sep 21, 2025 PIT 21 at NE 14
Dec 7, 2023 NE 21 at PIT 18

Watch list

Michael Pittman (foot) questionable - his status shifts PIT's WR target share.
Carlton Davis (neck) questionable - NE secondary depth affects Metcalf's ceiling.
Total line moving toward 40 - confirms under before locking it.

Week 2 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

DET @ BUF