Archived Week 2 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET · CBS · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

1-0 · 13-5 last season

Final13

At DEN -7.5 Total 35.5 JAX covered · Under

Denver Broncos

0-1 · 15-4 last season

Final20

Line movement open Sep 15 DEN spread -2.5 -7.5 5.0 Total 45.5 35.5 10.0

The angle, before kickoff Pass · 2/10

DEN -2.5 at home but JAX ran the same field 34-20 in December.

SidePASSprojected margin 2.5 equals the spread, no edge.

TotalPASSDraftEdge total 45.5 sits on the line exactly.

Best bet

J.K. Dobbins under 57.5 rushing yards into the NFL's #1 run defense at 17.1 fpa.

Quick hits

DEN -2.5, total 45.5, implied JAX 21.5 and DEN 24.0.
Balanced-to-low: DEN pts allowed #5, JAX pts allowed #7, both defenses stingy.
JAX run defense #1 vs Dobbins is the decisive edge.
Coinflip script, DEN nominal favorite, both offenses near 63 plays.
JAX WR health (Thomas, Meyers questionable) can tilt the aerial game.

Key matchups

Brenton Strange vs DEN TE: #22, 14.3 fpa, softest spot on the board.
Bo Nix vs JAX QB: #10, 16.3 fpa, neutral against a tough secondary.
J.K. Dobbins vs JAX RB: #1, 17.1 fpa, avoid this ground matchup.
Parker Washington vs DEN WR: #3, 24.9 fpa, tough sledding for the top target.
Jaylen Waddle vs JAX WR: #16, 30.2 fpa, neutral, priciest DK skill at $6500.
Trevor Lawrence vs DEN QB: #12, 16.9 fpa, neutral, capped ceiling.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
JAX	Trevor Lawrence	QB	18.9	$5,800	DEN #6 of 32	15.1	Tough
JAX	Bhayshul Tuten	RB	11.8	$5,600	DEN #14 of 32	21.9	Neutral
JAX	Parker Washington	WR	10.9	$5,900	DEN #3 of 32	25.4	Tough
JAX	Brenton Strange	TE	6.6	$3,900	DEN #17 of 32	12.8	Neutral

JAX skill positions vs DEN defense

#6/32

15.1 fpa

Avoid

#14/32

21.9 fpa

Bad

#3/32

25.4 fpa

Avoid

#17/32

12.8 fpa

Average

DEN skill positions vs JAX defense

#11/32

16.1 fpa

Bad

#4/32

18.2 fpa

Avoid

#17/32

31.1 fpa

Average

#19/32

12.9 fpa

Good

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

DEN passes at 58%, JAX at 53%, both around 63 plays, moderate pace.
DEN plays from ahead by a field goal, JAX leans on its efficient offense.
Points scarce: implied 21.5 and 24.0 with both red-zone defenses top-7.

Projected points (market implied)

JAX14.0

DEN21.5

Offense profile

JAXRank of 32DEN

27.3 #6 Pts / G 22.3 #18

234.5 #15 Pass yds / G 230.5 #16

110.7 #21 Rush yds / G 108.6 #24

62.5 #14 Plays / G 63.1 #12

53% Pass rate 58%

1.8 Pass TD / G 1.4

1.2 Rush TD / G 0.9

2.4 Sacks taken / G 1.5

0.7 INT thrown / G 0.6

Defense profile

JAXRank of 32DEN

19.6 #7 Pts allowed / G 18.6 #5

234.9 #20 Pass yds allowed 206.6 #9

86.9 #1 Rush yds allowed 102.6 #5

1.9 Sacks / G 3.8

1.1 INT / G 0.7

1.3 Pass TD allowed 1.2

0.8 Rush TD allowed 0.7

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-21, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-20 14:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

72°F

feels 66°

Wind

9 mph NE

gusts 18 mph

Rain

0.00 in

Humidity

38%

Sunny, 72F, wind 8 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Sunny, 72F, wind 7 mph, rain 1%: no weather factor.
Passing, kicking and totals unaffected by conditions.

DFS

Stack Lawrence with Strange into DEN's #22 TE matchup.
Value: Engram $3300 at 2.01x, cheap TE floor vs JAX #11.
Fade: Waddle $6500 at 1.50x, neutral matchup, worst value on slate.
Contrarian: Tuten $5600 vs DEN RB #14, overlooked 20.6 ceiling.

JAX projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Trevor Lawrence	18.9	11.5 / 27.7	$5,800	3.26x	$7,800	#6
RB	Bhayshul Tuten	11.8	6.8 / 20.6	$5,600	2.11x	$6,400	#14
WR	Parker Washington	10.9	4.8 / 20.1	$5,900	1.84x	$6,600	#3
WR	Jakobi Meyers	7.8	2.9 / 15.5	$4,900	1.60x	$5,500	#3
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	7.8	2.7 / 15.2	$4,800	1.63x	$5,700	#3
TE	Brenton Strange	6.6	3.0 / 15.7	$3,900	1.69x	$5,100	#17
RB	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	6.1	2.8 / 12.7	$5,100	1.20x	$5,400	#14

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Brenton Strange - receiving yards 30.5 - over - DEN TE defense #22, 14.3 fpa.
J.K. Dobbins - rushing yards 57.5 - under - JAX run defense #1, 17.1 fpa.
Parker Washington - receiving yards 59.5 - under - DEN WR defense #3, 24.9 fpa.
Evan Engram - receiving yards 24.5 - over - 6.6 proj at 2.01x value.

All JAX and DEN props with AI grades

Injuries

JAX 8 listed

Out CJ Williams WR Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Quinn Ewers QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Tanner Koziol TE Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Jack Kiser LB Unknown Minimal
Out Jalen Huskey FS Unknown Minimal
Out Jared Bartlett ILB Unknown Minimal
Out Parker Hughes LB Unknown Minimal
Out Wesley Williams DE Unknown Minimal

DEN 8 listed

Out Marvin Mims WR Unknown Severe
Out RJ Harvey RB Hamstring Severe
IR Caleb Lohner TE Lower Body Severe
Quest. J.K. Dobbins RB Hamstring Moderate
Out Jonathon Cooper OLB Colo. Minimal
Out Levelle Bailey ILB Leg Minimal
Out Matt Henningsen DE Unknown Minimal
Out Michael Deiter C Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

JAX won the December meeting 34-20 at this venue.
DEN took the prior two H2H, 21-17 and 23-13.
Line flat: spread DEN -2.5 and total 45.5 unmoved since open.

JAX last 5

L 13-20 @ DENW 34-10 vs CLEL 24-27 vs BUFW 41-7 vs TENW 23-17 @ IND

DEN last 5

W 20-13 vs JAXL 10-31 @ KCL 7-10 vs NEW 33-30 vs BUFW 19-3 vs LAC

Head-to-head

Sep 20, 2026 JAX 13 at DEN 20
Dec 21, 2025 JAX 34 at DEN 20
Oct 30, 2022 DEN 21 at JAX 17

Watch list

Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers questionable: JAX WR volume shifts if either sits.
RJ Harvey questionable (hamstring): funnels backfield touches to Dobbins.
Marvin Mims questionable (foot): monitor DEN return and slot snaps.

Week 2 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

DET @ BUF