Archived Week 2 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · FOX · Soldier Field, Chicago Division Final

Minnesota Vikings

1-0 · 10-7 last season

Final9

At MIN -1.5 Total 24.5 MIN covered · Under

Chicago Bears

1-0 · 13-6 last season

Final3

Line movement open Sep 15 CHI spread -5.5 +1.5 7.0 Total 48.5 24.5 24.0

The angle, before kickoff Pass · 3/10

Jefferson faces the NFL's 30th-ranked pass defense with CHI's CB1 Gordon out.

SideBET AWAY +4.5MIN's #6 defense caps CHI and the line moved a full point their way.

TotalBET UNDER 47.5rain and MIN's #1 QB defense suppress CHI's 26.0 implied total.

Best bet

Justin Jefferson over 81.5 receiving yards against the 30th-ranked pass defense with Chicago's CB1 Gordon out.

Quick hits

CHI -4.5, total 47.5; implied MIN 21.5, CHI 26.0.
Balanced-to-moderate; rain caps upside despite CHI's #6 offense.
MIN's #1 QB, #2 RB defense chokes Caleb Williams and Swift.
CHI leads and leans run into wet conditions; MIN passes to chase.
Swift and Monangai both questionable reshapes CHI's backfield.

Key matchups

Justin Jefferson vs CHI WR: 38.1 fpa, #30, SMASH, softest spot on the board.
Carson Wentz vs CHI QB: 23.4 fpa, #30, SMASH, elite passing matchup.
D'Andre Swift vs MIN RB: 17.5 fpa, #2, TOUGH, avoid the ground.
Caleb Williams vs MIN QB: 13.3 fpa, #1, TOUGH, stingiest QB defense.
Colston Loveland vs MIN TE: 10.9 fpa, #6, TOUGH, tight matchup.
Aaron Jones vs CHI RB: 23.9 fpa, #19, NEUTRAL, modest room.

MIN skill positions vs CHI defense

#27/32

20.5 fpa

Elite

#21/32

22.9 fpa

Good

#23/32

33.8 fpa

Good

#11/32

11.9 fpa

Bad

CHI skill positions vs MIN defense

#1/32

12.9 fpa

Avoid

#5/32

18.2 fpa

Avoid

#11/32

29.0 fpa

Bad

#2/32

9.6 fpa

Avoid

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

CHI plays fast (#1 in plays, 67) but rain pushes both toward the run.
CHI favored 26.0 implied, controls script; MIN 21.5, forced to pass.
Points hinge on MIN passing vs soft CHI secondary; CHI ground stalls vs #2 D.

Projected points (market implied)

MIN13.0

CHI11.5

Offense profile

MINRank of 32CHI

21.1 #21 Pts / G 26.6 #8

188.2 #29 Pass yds / G 243.8 #10

109.9 #22 Rush yds / G 151.4 #3

57.1 #30 Plays / G 67.1 #1

53% Pass rate 53%

1.1 Pass TD / G 1.6

0.9 Rush TD / G 1.3

3.4 Sacks taken / G 1.3

1.1 INT thrown / G 0.6

Defense profile

MINRank of 32CHI

18.4 #3 Pts allowed / G 22.6 #14

191.6 #2 Pass yds allowed 246.1 #22

116.1 #15 Rush yds allowed 128.6 #25

3.1 Sacks / G 2.2

0.6 INT / G 1.2

0.9 Pass TD allowed 1.7

0.6 Rush TD allowed 0.8

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-21, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-20 12:00 local Moderate impact

Conditions

Moderate or heavy rain shower

Temp

64°F

feels 64°

Wind

7 mph NE

gusts 15 mph

Rain

92%

0.24 in

Humidity

98%

Rain 92% (0.24 in/hr): wet ball, more runs, fumble risk

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Light rain 79%, 63F, wind 9 mph gusting 18: wet ball, more runs, fumble risk.
Moderate impact trims passing efficiency and kicking; nudges total under.

DFS

Stack Wentz $4600 with Jefferson $7800 into #30 pass defense.
Value: Wentz $4600 at 3.32x, elite QB matchup and cheap.
Fade Caleb Williams $6800 vs MIN #1 QB defense in rain.
Contrarian: Kyle Monangai $5300 if Swift sits; volume upside.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Justin Jefferson - receiving yards 81.5 - over - #30 WR defense, Gordon out.
Carson Wentz - passing yards 213.5 - over - #30 QB matchup, projected pass-chase.
Caleb Williams - passing yards 230.5 - under - MIN #1 QB defense, wet ball.
D'Andre Swift - rushing yards 61.5 - under - MIN #2 RB defense, ankle/knee questionable.

All MIN and CHI props with AI grades

Injuries

MIN 8 listed

Out Jauan Jennings WR Unknown Severe
Out Kyler Murray QB Unknown Severe
Out Caleb Tiernan OT Unknown Minimal
Out Elijah Williams DE Unknown Minimal
Out Jakobe Thomas FS Unknown Minimal
Out Jamal Adams LB Unknown Minimal
Out Nick Samac C Unknown Minimal
Out Zemaiah Vaughn CB Unknown Minimal

CHI 8 listed

Out Case Keenum QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Anthony Johnson Jr. FS Unknown Minimal
Out Dallis Flowers CB Unknown Minimal
Out Jamree Kromah DE Unknown Minimal
Out Jayden Loving DT Unknown Minimal
Out Jonathan Garvin DE Unknown Minimal
Out Jordan McFadden G Unknown Minimal
Out Kyler Gordon CB Calf Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

MIN 5-0 in last five, W 39-22 vs GB; strong form.
H2H tight: CHI 19-17, MIN 27-24, MIN 30-12 last three.
Spread moved CHI -5.5 to -4.5, total 48.5 to 47.5; money on MIN.

MIN last 5

W 9-3 @ CHIW 39-22 vs GBW 16-3 vs GBW 23-10 vs DETW 16-13 @ NYG

CHI last 5

L 3-9 vs MINW 59-37 @ CARL 17-20 vs LAW 31-27 vs GBL 16-19 vs DET

Head-to-head

Sep 20, 2026 MIN 9 at CHI 3
Nov 16, 2025 CHI 19 at MIN 17
Sep 8, 2025 MIN 27 at CHI 24

Watch list

Swift and Monangai questionable: confirm actives, it reshapes CHI's backfield and value.
Rain intensity at kickoff: heavier precip strengthens the under and run lean.
Spread move past -4.5: further steam toward MIN validates the dog.

Week 2 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

DET @ BUF