Archived Week 2 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · FOX · State Farm Stadium, Arizona Division Indoor Final

Seattle Seahawks

1-0 · 18-2 last season

Final31

At SEA -18.5 Total 37.5 SEA covered · Over

Arizona Cardinals

1-0 · 2-15 last season

Final7

Line movement open Sep 15 ARI spread +4.5 +18.5 14.0 Total 41.5 37.5 4.0

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 4/10

SEA -4.5 with the NFL's #1 scoring defense visiting Arizona's #30 unit, implied 23-18.5.

SideBET AWAY -4.5SEA's #1 defense faces ARI's #23 offense and 1-4 dog.

TotalPASSprojected 41.5 sits exactly on the line, no edge.

Best bet

Seattle -4.5: the NFL's #1 scoring defense against a 20.9-point Arizona offense that has lost four of five.

Quick hits

Market: SEA -4.5, total 41.5, implied SEA 23.0 / ARI 18.5, no movement.
Balanced-to-low: 41.5 total, SEA offense #2 meets ARI defense #30, but SEA defense #1 caps it.
Decisive: SEA defense #1 in points allowed versus ARI offense #23 at 20.9 points.
Script: SEA leads, mixed attack (49% pass); ARI trails and throws (64% pass rate).
Swing factor: Drew Lock starts with Darnold (glute) out; Charbonnet (knee) out too.

Key matchups

AJ Barner vs ARI TE defense: #28, 17.5 fpa, SMASH cheap TE spot.
Drew Lock vs ARI QB defense: #21, 18.0 fpa, FAVORABLE for a value QB.
Jadarian Price vs ARI RB defense: #23, 24.8 fpa, FAVORABLE run window.
Jeremiyah Love vs SEA RB defense: #6, 18.4 fpa, TOUGH ground matchup.
Michael Wilson vs SEA WR defense: #2, 24.8 fpa, TOUGH shutdown spot.
Jacoby Brissett vs SEA QB defense: #5, 14.4 fpa, TOUGH throwing day.

SEA skill positions vs ARI defense

#24/32

18.6 fpa

Good

#23/32

23.6 fpa

Good

#25/32

34.3 fpa

Elite

#27/32

16.3 fpa

Elite

ARI skill positions vs SEA defense

#2/32

13.2 fpa

Avoid

#3/32

18.0 fpa

Avoid

#1/32

21.8 fpa

Avoid

#25/32

14.6 fpa

Elite

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

ARI plays fast at 65 plays (#4), 64% pass; SEA at 60 plays (#21), 49% pass.
Favorite SEA controls with rush (125 yds #8); dog ARI chases via air.
Points lean SEA: 23.0 implied versus ARI 18.5, matching the 41.5 total.

Projected points (market implied)

SEA28.0

ARI9.5

Offense profile

SEARank of 32ARI

29.2 #2 Pts / G 20.1 #24

236.3 #13 Pass yds / G 256.0 #4

127.2 #7 Rush yds / G 90.6 #30

60.2 #22 Plays / G 63.8 #9

48% Pass rate 64%

1.6 Pass TD / G 1.6

1.1 Rush TD / G 0.5

1.6 Sacks taken / G 3.3

0.6 INT thrown / G 0.6

Defense profile

SEARank of 32ARI

16.0 #1 Pts allowed / G 29.3 #31

210.7 #12 Pass yds allowed 237.4 #21

92.4 #3 Rush yds allowed 132.1 #28

2.8 Sacks / G 1.8

1.0 INT / G 0.6

1.2 Pass TD allowed 1.9

0.4 Rush TD allowed 1.2

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-21, 21 games per team.

Weather

Indoor: no weather factor. State Farm Stadium is a covered venue.

Indoor: no weather factor.

Props

AJ Barner - receiving yards 20.5 - lean over - ARI #28 vs TE, elite-soft matchup.
Drew Lock - passing yards 204.5 - lean over - ARI #21 QB defense, proj 15.6.
Jadarian Price - rushing yards 60.5 - lean over - ARI #23 vs RB, 24.8 fpa.
Michael Wilson - receiving yards 38.5 - lean under - SEA #2 WR defense.

All SEA and ARI props with AI grades

Injuries

SEA 8 listed

Out Irvin Charles WR Undisclosed Severe
Out Montorie Foster Jr. WR Unknown Severe
Out Sam Darnold QB Glute Severe
Out Zach Charbonnet RB Knee Severe
Out Anthony Bradford G Unknown Minimal
Out Connor O'Toole OLB Unknown Minimal
Out Mike Morris DE Unknown Minimal
Out Robbie Ouzts FB Unknown Minimal

ARI 8 listed

Out Carson Beck QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Jameson Geers TE Unknown Severe
Out Reggie Virgil WR Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Trey Benson RB Knee Severe
Out Andrew Billings DT Knee Minimal
Out Chase Bisontis G Unknown Minimal
Out Garrett Williams CB Unknown Minimal
Out Josh Fryar OT Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

Form: SEA 5-0 last five; ARI 1-4 with four losses by 12-plus.
H2H: SEA won last three, 44-22, 23-20, 30-18.
Line: spread frozen at 4.5, total frozen at 41.5 since open.

SEA last 5

W 31-7 @ ARIW 13-10 vs NEW 29-13 @ NEW 31-27 vs LAW 41-6 vs SF

ARI last 5

L 7-31 vs SEAW 26-14 @ LACL 20-37 @ LAL 14-37 @ CINL 19-26 vs ATL

Head-to-head

Sep 20, 2026 SEA 31 at ARI 7
Nov 9, 2025 ARI 22 at SEA 44
Sep 25, 2025 SEA 23 at ARI 20

Watch list

Anthony Bradford and Josh Jones (G, Q) - interior line affects Lock's protection.
Garrett Williams (CB, Q, Achilles) - his status shifts ARI coverage on JSN.
Line at 4.5 - any move signals sharp read before kickoff.

Week 2 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

DET @ BUF