Archived Week 4 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · MetLife Stadium, New York Final

Arizona Cardinals

1-2 · 1-3 last season

Final24

At ARI -2.5 Total 44.5 NYG covered · Over

New York Giants

2-1 · 3-1 last season

Final36

Line movement open Sep 29 NYG spread +1.5 +2.5 1.0 Total 43.5 44.5 1.0

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 4/10

ARI -2.5 but Arizona's defense ranks 26th-29th across the board, gifting Giants skill players smash spots.

SideBET HOME +2.5home dog with ARI defense surrendering SMASH ranks across QB, WR, TE.

TotalPASSprojected 44.5 matches the line exactly, no edge.

Best bet

Isaiah Likely over 40.5 receiving yards into ARI's #29-ranked TE defense at just $4500.

Quick hits

Market: ARI -2.5, total 44.5, implied ARI 23.5 / NYG 21.0.
Balanced scoring: 44.5 total, both offenses mid-tier but both facing exploitable spots.
Decisive matchup: ARI defense allows soft positional ranks, QB #28, TE #29, WR #26.
Script: ARI narrow favorite, NYG run-leaning at 48% pass rate, close game.
Swing factor: NYG offense ranks #28 scoring and could waste the matchup.

Key matchups

Jameis Winston vs ARI QB defense: #28 of 32, 20.4 fpa, SMASH spot.
Isaiah Likely vs ARI TE defense: #29 of 32, 17.7 fpa, elite smash at $4500.
Malik Nabers vs ARI WR defense: #26 of 32, 35.5 fpa, SMASH.
Trey McBride vs NYG TE defense: #11 of 32, 11.7 fpa, toughest spot on the board.
Michael Wilson vs NYG WR defense: #24 of 32, 34.4 fpa, favorable.
Jeremiyah Love vs NYG RB defense: #24 of 32, 24.4 fpa, favorable.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
ARI	Jacoby Brissett	QB	16.8	$5,000	NYG #20 of 32	18.0	Favorable
ARI	Trey McBride	TE	16.4	$6,500	NYG #16 of 32	13.0	Neutral
ARI	Jeremiyah Love	RB	15.1	$5,800	NYG #23 of 32	23.8	Favorable
ARI	Michael Wilson	WR	13.0	$5,500	NYG #21 of 32	33.2	Favorable
NYG	Cam Skattebo	RB	15.2	$6,100	ARI #18 of 32	22.1	Neutral
NYG	Jameis Winston	QB	14.0	$4,500	ARI #28 of 32	20.3	Smash
NYG	Malik Nabers	WR	11.7	$6,000	ARI #25 of 32	36.0	Favorable
NYG	Isaiah Likely	TE	11.1	$4,500	ARI #30 of 32	18.2	Smash

ARI skill positions vs NYG defense

#20/32

18.0 fpa

Good

#23/32

23.8 fpa

Good

#21/32

33.2 fpa

Good

#16/32

13.0 fpa

Average

NYG skill positions vs ARI defense

#28/32

20.3 fpa

Elite

#18/32

22.1 fpa

Average

#25/32

36.0 fpa

Elite

#30/32

18.2 fpa

Elite

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

NYG slow at 48% pass rate, ARI fast with 67 plays (#4) and 60% pass.
Favorite ARI pushes tempo, dog NYG leans Skattebo and clock control.
Points come near even, 23.5 vs 21.0, both allow 2.3-2.7 pass TD per game.

Projected points (market implied)

ARI23.5

NYG21.0

Offense profile

ARIRank of 32NYG

21.8 #16 Pts / G 20.5 #20

204.5 #22 Pass yds / G 182.8 #27

100.5 #22 Rush yds / G 110.5 #12

65.8 #7 Plays / G 60.5 #18

59% Pass rate 48%

1.5 Pass TD / G 1.5

0.8 Rush TD / G 0.2

1.8 Sacks taken / G 2.8

1.0 INT thrown / G 0.8

Defense profile

ARIRank of 32NYG

29.2 #30 Pts allowed / G 19.8 #8

247.8 #23 Pass yds allowed 212.2 #7

117.5 #20 Rush yds allowed 109.0 #16

2.0 Sacks / G 0.8

0.8 INT / G 1.5

2.8 Pass TD allowed 2.2

0.8 Rush TD allowed 0.5

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 4 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-10-04 13:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Light drizzle

Temp

61°F

feels 57°

Wind

8 mph ESE

gusts 12 mph

Rain

37%

0.01 in

Humidity

63%

Light drizzle, 61F, wind 7 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

F, wind 10 mph gusting 12, rain chance 10%, precip 0.00.
Minor wind only on long kicks, negligible passing impact.
No meaningful total adjustment from weather.

DFS

Stack: Winston + Nabers + Likely, Giants trio into ARI's #26-#29 spots.
Value: Isaiah Likely $4500, 2.59x, smash TE matchup at minimum salary.
Fade: Marvin Harrison Jr. $4500, 1.44x, only 6.5 projected behind Wilson.
Contrarian: low-owned NYG offense exploiting an elite-soft Arizona defense.

ARI projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Jacoby Brissett	16.8	10.4 / 24.8	$5,000	3.37x	$6,800	#20
TE	Trey McBride	16.4	8.9 / 27.0	$6,500	2.53x	$7,400	#16
RB	Jeremiyah Love questionable	15.1	8.5 / 24.1	$5,800	2.60x	$6,600	#23
WR	Michael Wilson	13.0	6.0 / 23.3	$5,500	2.37x	$6,200	#21
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	7.3	1.9 / 14.9	$4,500	1.62x	$5,500	#21
RB	Tyler Allgeier	6.9	2.9 / 13.1	$4,800	1.43x	$5,400	#23
WR	Kendrick Bourne	5.9	1.7 / 12.2	$3,500	1.68x	$5,100	#21

NYG projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
RB	Cam Skattebo	15.2	8.5 / 23.8	$6,100	2.49x	$7,100	#18
QB	Jameis Winston	14.0	8.2 / 21.4	$4,500	3.11x	$6,500	#28
WR	Malik Nabers	11.7	5.0 / 21.7	$6,000	1.95x	$6,800	#25
TE	Isaiah Likely	11.1	4.7 / 19.9	$4,500	2.46x	$5,100	#30
WR	Malachi Fields	5.4	0.2 / 12.3	$4,000	1.35x	$5,100	#25
WR	Darnell Mooney	5.2	0.2 / 11.9	$3,800	1.37x	$5,200	#25
RB	Najee Harris	4.9	2.0 / 10.5	$4,500	1.10x	$4,900	#18

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Jameis Winston - passing yards 208.5 - lean over - vs #28 QB defense, elite spot.
Isaiah Likely - receiving yards 40.5 - lean over - #29 TE matchup, 11.7 proj.
Malik Nabers - receiving yards 56.5 - lean over - #26 WR, 35.5 fpa allowed.
Trey McBride - receptions 6.5 - lean under - toughest #11 TE matchup.

All ARI and NYG props with AI grades

Injuries

ARI 8 listed

Out Jameson Geers TE Unknown Severe
Out Trey Benson RB Knee Severe
IR James Conner RB Foot Severe
IR Tip Reiman TE Ankle Severe
Out Chase Bisontis G Unknown Minimal
Out Dadrion Taylor-Demerson FS Back Minimal
Quest. Josh Sweat OLB Groin Minimal
IR Joey Blount FS Unknown Minimal

NYG 8 listed

IR Arian Smith WR Knee Severe
IR Calvin Austin III WR Knee Severe
IR Jaxson Dart QB Unknown Severe
Out Jarrick Bernard-Converse CB Unknown Minimal
Out Thaddeus Dixon CB Unknown Minimal
IR Brian Burns OLB Knee Minimal
IR Korie Black CB Undisclosed Minimal
IR Paulson Adebo CB Knee Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

Form: NYG 2-1 with defense allowing 18.3 (#9); ARI 1-2 allowing 27.0 (#24).
H2H: last meeting NYG 31, ARI 28 in 2023, one-score result.
Line move: spread flipped NYG 1.5 to ARI 2.5, total up 43.5 to 44.5.

ARI last 5

L 24-36 @ NYGL 30-36 @ SFL 7-31 vs SEAW 26-14 @ LACL 20-37 @ LA

NYG last 5

W 36-24 vs ARIW 12-7 vs TENL 6-28 @ LAW 28-20 vs DALW 34-17 vs DAL

Head-to-head

Oct 4, 2026 ARI 24 at NYG 36
Sep 17, 2023 NYG 31 at ARI 28

Watch list

Tyrone Tracy (RB, Q, knee) - status shifts NYG backfield share to Skattebo.
Andrew Thomas (T, Q, groin) - absence hurts pass protection for Winston.
Line move - spread already flipped to ARI -2.5, watch for further steam.
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (FS, Q) - secondary health affects Nabers and Likely upside.

Week 4 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

PIT @ CLE