Archived Week 4 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars
2-1 · 3-1 last season
Final22
At
CIN -2.5 Total 51.5 JAX covered · Under
Cincinnati Bengals
2-1 · 2-2 last season
Final17
Line movement open Sep 29
CIN spread
-2.5 -2.5
no move
Total
51.5 51.5
no move
The angle, before kickoff
Lean · 5/10
JAX defense ranks #1 in points allowed; back the dog getting 2.5 at Cincinnati.
SideBET AWAY +2.5JAX #1 scoring defense faces Burrow into #5 JAX QB D.
TotalPASSprojected total 51.5 sits exactly on the line.
Best bet
Brenton Strange over 3.5 receptions against the #31-ranked TE defense.
Quick hits
- CIN -2.5, total 51.5, implied JAX 24.5 CIN 27.0, both teams at market.
- High scoring expected, both offenses top-12 in points, CIN pass D #29.
- Brenton Strange vs CIN #31 TE defense is the decisive edge.
- CIN leads and throws (60% pass rate); JAX runs, only 48% pass.
- JAX #1 scoring defense vs Burrow into #5 JAX QB D flips it.
Key matchups
- Strange vs CIN TE D: #31 of 32, 20.0 fpa, SMASH spot.
- Tuten vs CIN RB D: #25 of 32, 24.6 fpa, run-game edge.
- Lawrence vs CIN QB D: #24 of 32, 19.0 fpa, favorable passing.
- Washington vs CIN WR D: #4 of 32, 27.0 fpa, tough draw.
- Chase Brown vs JAX RB D: #4 of 32, 17.6 fpa, capped ground.
- Burrow vs JAX QB D: #5 of 32, 15.0 fpa, stingiest matchup.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX |
Trevor Lawrence | QB | 20.4 | $5,900 | CIN #23 of 32 | 18.3 | Favorable |
| JAX |
Parker Washington | WR | 16.8 | $6,500 | CIN #3 of 32 | 26.6 | Tough |
| JAX |
Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 10.8 | $5,600 | CIN #25 of 32 | 24.1 | Favorable |
| JAX |
Brenton Strange | TE | 9.3 | $3,200 | CIN #31 of 32 | 19.9 | Smash |
| CIN |
Joe Burrow | QB | 20.3 | $6,800 | JAX #11 of 32 | 16.7 | Neutral |
| CIN |
Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 19.5 | $8,100 | JAX #23 of 32 | 34.8 | Favorable |
| CIN |
Chase Brown | RB | 16.7 | $6,100 | JAX #3 of 32 | 17.9 | Tough |
| CIN |
Mike Gesicki | TE | 7.4 | $3,300 | JAX #10 of 32 | 11.6 | Neutral |
JAX skill positions vs CIN defenseQB
#23/32
18.3 fpa
RB
#25/32
24.1 fpa
WR
#3/32
26.6 fpa
TE
#31/32
19.9 fpa
CIN skill positions vs JAX defenseQB
#11/32
16.7 fpa
RB
#3/32
17.9 fpa
WR
#23/32
34.8 fpa
TE
#10/32
11.6 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- CIN runs 59 plays at 60% pass; JAX leans run at 48%, 57 plays.
- CIN favored by 2.5 and should throw; JAX controls clock with rushing.
- Points split evenly, 51.5 total, CIN 27.0 implied edges JAX 24.5.
Projected points (market implied)
JAX24.5
CIN27.0
Offense profile
JAXRank of 32CIN
26.0
#12
Pts / G
24.2
#14
210.8
#20
Pass yds / G
292.8
#5
117.2
#11
Rush yds / G
74.2
#31
56.2
#30
Plays / G
62.2
#16
48%
Pass rate
65%
2.0
Pass TD / G
1.8
1.0
Rush TD / G
0.5
2.0
Sacks taken / G
2.2
0.5
INT thrown / G
0.8
Defense profile
JAXRank of 32CIN
13.2
#2
Pts allowed / G
21.2
#13
291.5
#31
Pass yds allowed
272.0
#26
74.2
#2
Rush yds allowed
99.5
#8
2.5
Sacks / G
3.5
1.5
INT / G
0.2
0.8
Pass TD allowed
1.0
0.5
Rush TD allowed
0.8
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 4 games per team.
Weather
At kickoff · 2026-10-04 13:00 local
No weather factor
Conditions
Overcast
Temp
71°F
feels 68°
Wind
3 mph NW
gusts 3 mph
Rain
10%
0.00 in
Humidity
38%
- Overcast, 70F, wind 2 mph: no weather factor
WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface
- Overcast, 70F, wind 2 mph, rain 10%: no weather factor.
- Passing, kicking and totals all unaffected.
DFS
- Stack Lawrence with Strange and Tuten into soft CIN front seven.
- Value: Strange $3200 at 2.72x, SMASH vs #31 TE defense.
- Fade: Chase Brown $6100 into JAX #4 run defense.
- Contrarian: Tuten vs #25 RB defense, under-owned ground angle.
JAX projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Trevor Lawrence | 20.4 | 12.9 / 29.3 | $5,900 | 3.46x | $7,900 | #23 |
| WR | Parker Washington | 16.8 | 8.3 / 29.7 | $6,500 | 2.59x | $7,100 | #3 |
| WR | Jakobi Meyers | 10.9 | 4.4 / 19.9 | $5,000 | 2.18x | $5,700 | #3 |
| RB | Bhayshul Tuten | 10.8 | 5.5 / 18.5 | $5,600 | 1.93x | $6,800 | #25 |
| TE | Brenton Strange | 9.3 | 3.5 / 17.1 | $3,200 | 2.90x | $5,100 | #31 |
| WR | Brian Thomas Jr. | 7.5 | 2.0 / 15.2 | $4,300 | 1.75x | $5,500 | #3 |
| RB | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 5.1 | 1.6 / 12.8 | $4,600 | 1.11x | $5,300 | #25 |
CIN projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Joe Burrow | 20.3 | 12.7 / 29.3 | $6,800 | 2.99x | $8,200 | #11 |
| WR | Ja'Marr Chase questionable | 19.5 | 10.6 / 32.3 | $8,100 | 2.41x | $9,100 | #23 |
| RB | Chase Brown | 16.7 | 9.7 / 25.8 | $6,100 | 2.74x | $7,600 | #3 |
| WR | Tee Higgins questionable | 13.8 | 6.3 / 25.2 | $6,100 | 2.27x | $6,900 | #23 |
| TE | Mike Gesicki | 7.4 | 2.3 / 14.8 | $3,300 | 2.24x | $5,100 | #10 |
| WR | Dohnte Meyers | 5.5 | 1.4 / 11.9 | $3,000 | 1.82x | $4,800 | #23 |
| RB | Samaje Perine | 5.4 | 2.0 / 10.7 | $4,100 | 1.32x | $4,700 | #3 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Brenton Strange - receptions 3.5 (o+112) - over - #31 TE matchup.
- Bhayshul Tuten - rushing yards 56.5 (o-112) - over - #25 RB spot.
- Chase Brown - rushing yards 60.5 (o-110) - under - JAX #4 run D.
- Trevor Lawrence - passing yards 260.5 (o-112) - over - #24 QB defense.
Injuries
JAX 8 listed- IR Jimmy Holiday WR Undisclosed Severe
- Out Jared Bartlett ILB Unknown Minimal
- Out Parker Hughes LB Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Christian Braswell CB Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Montaric Brown CB Unknown Minimal
- IR B.J. Green II DE Elbow Minimal
- IR Garrett DiGiorgio G Unknown Minimal
- IR Omarr Norman-Lott DT Knee Minimal
CIN 8 listed- Out Colbie Young WR Knee Severe
- IR Andrei Iosivas WR Thumb Severe
- Out Kyle Dugger FS Quadriceps Minimal
- Quest. B.J. Hill DT Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Bryan Cook FS Ankle Minimal
- Quest. Dalton Risner G Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Swayze Bozeman LB Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Tee Higgins WR Unknown Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- JAX form: 35-6 win over NE last out, 2-1 record.
- H2H: last three decided by 3, 3, 4 points, CIN 2-1.
- Line static: spread CIN -2.5 and total 51.5 unmoved since open.
JAX last 5W 22-17 @ CINW 35-6 vs NEL 13-20 @ DENW 34-10 vs CLEL 24-27 vs BUF
CIN last 5L 17-22 vs JAXL 27-30 @ PITW 20-6 @ HOUW 33-27 vs TBL 18-20 vs CLE
Head-to-head
- Oct 4, 2026 JAX 22 at CIN 17
- Sep 14, 2025 JAX 27 at CIN 31
- Dec 4, 2023 CIN 34 at JAX 31
Watch list
- Jakobi Meyers (thumb) questionable: his status lifts Washington and Thomas targets.
- CIN secondary Turner, Cook, Battle questionable: could further soften #29 pass D.
- Line at CIN -2.5: any move off the key number changes side value.
Week 4 slate
Swipe for all 16 games this week.
PIT @ CLE
Thu 8:15 PM ET
PIT -6.5
O/U 37.5
Final
IND @ WAS
Sun 9:30 AM ET
IND -10.5
O/U 45.5
Final
ARI @ NYG
Sun 1:00 PM ET
ARI -2.5
O/U 44.5
Final
DAL @ HOU
Sun 1:00 PM ET
HOU -3
O/U 48.5
Final
GB @ TB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
GB -2.5
O/U 38.5
Final
JAX @ CIN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -2.5
O/U 51.5
Final
LA @ PHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
LA -3.5
O/U 42.5
Final
NE @ BUF
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF -6.5
O/U 49.5
Final
NYJ @ CHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -3.5
O/U 43.5
Final
TEN @ BAL
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -11.5
O/U 42.5
Final
MIA @ MIN
Sun 4:05 PM ET
MIN -9.5
O/U 38.5
Final
DEN @ SF
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SF -2.5
O/U 47.5
Final
KC @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
KC -4.5
O/U 47.5
Final
LAC @ SEA
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SEA -7
O/U 43.5
Final
DET @ CAR
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DET -3.5
O/U 51.5
Final
ATL @ NO
Mon 8:15 PM ET
NO -1.5
O/U 47.5
Kicked off