Archived Week 4 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore Final

Tennessee Titans

0-3 · 0-4 last season

Final18

At BAL -11.5 Total 42.5 TEN covered · Under

Baltimore Ravens

2-1 · 3-1 last season

Final24

Line movement open Sep 29 BAL spread -11.5 -11.5 no move Total 43.5 42.5 1.0

The angle, before kickoff Pass · 3/10

BAL -11.5 with projected margin exactly 11.5, but Carnell Tate smashes a 29th-ranked Ravens pass defense.

SidePASSprojected margin exactly 11.5 matches the spread, zero edge.

TotalPASSprojected total sits right on 42.5 after the one-point drop.

Best bet

Derrick Henry over 97.5 rushing yards, #3 rush offense into Tennessee's 24th-ranked run defense.

Quick hits

BAL -11.5, total 42.5, implied TEN 15.5 BAL 27.0.
Lopsided: BAL offense #4 in points, TEN offense #30 and #32 in plays.
Zay Flowers and Tate both attack 25th-plus WR matchups, pass defenses leak.
BAL leads wire to wire, run-heavy at 44% pass rate behind Henry.
Flowers questionable (ankle via listing) shifts BAL targets if he sits.

Key matchups

Carnell Tate vs BAL #29 vs WR: 37.1 fpa, SMASH, best away spot.
Derrick Henry vs TEN #16 vs RB: 21.1 fpa, neutral but #3 rush offense.
Zay Flowers vs TEN #25 vs WR: 35.3 fpa, favorable if active.
Lamar Jackson vs TEN #9 vs QB: 16.5 fpa, neutral, stingiest matchup here.
Gunnar Helm vs BAL #10 vs TE: 11.7 fpa, neutral, tough.
Cam Ward vs BAL #20 vs QB: 18.0 fpa, favorable but capped offense.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
TEN	Cam Ward	QB	13.1	$4,700	BAL #18 of 32	17.9	Neutral
TEN	Tony Pollard	RB	10.6	$5,400	BAL #12 of 32	21.0	Neutral
TEN	Carnell Tate	WR	10.0	$4,800	BAL #29 of 32	38.1	Smash
TEN	Gunnar Helm	TE	5.5	$2,800	BAL #8 of 32	10.9	Neutral
BAL	Lamar Jackson	QB	20.0	$7,300	TEN #17 of 32	17.3	Neutral
BAL	Derrick Henry	RB	19.7	$8,400	TEN #13 of 32	21.0	Neutral
BAL	Zay Flowers	WR	14.5	$6,900	TEN #24 of 32	35.9	Favorable
BAL	Mark Andrews	TE	10.4	$4,200	TEN #14 of 32	12.7	Neutral

TEN skill positions vs BAL defense

#18/32

17.9 fpa

Average

#12/32

21.0 fpa

Bad

#29/32

38.1 fpa

Elite

#8/32

10.9 fpa

Avoid

BAL skill positions vs TEN defense

#17/32

17.3 fpa

Average

#13/32

21.0 fpa

Bad

#24/32

35.9 fpa

Good

#14/32

12.7 fpa

Bad

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

BAL 44% pass rate, 59 plays; TEN just 52 plays, #32 in volume.
BAL leads early, leans on Henry; TEN forced to pass from behind.
Points tilt BAL 27.0, red zone via 2.3 rush TD per game.
[/MATCHUPS]

Projected points (market implied)

TEN15.5

BAL27.0

Offense profile

TENRank of 32BAL

13.8 #31 Pts / G 29.0 #7

181.5 #29 Pass yds / G 257.5 #11

89.0 #27 Rush yds / G 153.5 #4

53.8 #31 Plays / G 59.8 #19

57% Pass rate 45%

0.8 Pass TD / G 1.5

0.8 Rush TD / G 2.0

1.5 Sacks taken / G 1.8

0.5 INT thrown / G 0.2

Defense profile

TENRank of 32BAL

20.8 #10 Pts allowed / G 24.0 #19

220.5 #11 Pass yds allowed 229.5 #17

122.8 #24 Rush yds allowed 100.0 #10

2.0 Sacks / G 1.8

0.5 INT / G 0.5

1.0 Pass TD allowed 1.0

1.0 Rush TD allowed 1.5

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 4 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-10-04 13:00 local Low impact

Conditions

Patchy rain nearby

Temp

62°F

feels 60°

Wind

9 mph ENE

gusts 14 mph

Rain

40%

0.00 in

Humidity

93%

Rain chance 40%: watch for showers at kickoff

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Light drizzle 64F, wind 9 mph gusting 14, rain 57%, impact low.
Minor passing and kicking concern, not enough to force the total down.

DFS

Stack Lamar Jackson with Zay Flowers if active, #25 WR matchup.
Value Carnell Tate $4800 (2.05x) vs #29 WR defense, SMASH spot.
Fade Cam Ward $4700, #30 offense capped at 15.5 implied.
Contrarian Mark Andrews $4200 (2.55x), neutral but cheap red-zone target.

TEN projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Cam Ward	13.1	7.8 / 19.8	$4,700	2.79x	$6,500	#18
RB	Tony Pollard	10.6	5.8 / 17.8	$5,400	1.96x	$5,800	#12
WR	Carnell Tate	10.0	4.3 / 18.0	$4,800	2.09x	$5,600	#29
WR	Wan'Dale Robinson	8.7	3.7 / 15.5	$4,600	1.90x	$5,300	#29
RB	Tyjae Spears	6.0	2.6 / 11.1	$4,900	1.22x	$4,800	#12
TE	Gunnar Helm	5.5	1.7 / 11.0	$2,800	1.98x	$4,700	#8
WR	Elic Ayomanor	5.0	0.0 / 11.5	$3,000	1.68x	$5,000	#29

BAL projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Lamar Jackson questionable	20.0	12.8 / 28.8	$7,300	2.74x	$8,700	#17
RB	Derrick Henry	19.7	10.9 / 29.7	$8,400	2.34x	$9,100	#13
WR	Zay Flowers	14.5	7.0 / 26.3	$6,900	2.10x	$7,300	#24
TE	Mark Andrews	10.4	4.4 / 18.4	$4,200	2.47x	$5,200	#14
WR	Rashod Bateman	8.2	2.5 / 16.0	$4,200	1.96x	$5,800	#24
RB	Justice Hill	4.8	1.6 / 10.0	$4,200	1.14x	$4,700	#13
TE	Matt Hibner	3.0	0.0 / 8.3	$2,500	1.21x	$4,300	#14

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Derrick Henry - rushing yards 97.5 - lean over - #3 rush offense vs #24 TEN run yards allowed.
Carnell Tate - receptions 4.5 (o+110) - lean over - SMASH vs #29 WR defense.
Lamar Jackson - rushing yards 30.5 - lean over - proj dual-threat, BAL 2.3 rush TD per game.
Cam Ward - passing yards 187.5 - lean under - #30 pass offense, 168 yds per game.

All TEN and BAL props with AI grades