Archived Week 4 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · FOX · NRG Stadium, Houston
Indoor Final
Dallas Cowboys
1-2 · 2-2 last season
Final34
At
HOU -3 Total 48.5 DAL covered · Over
Houston Texans
0-3 · 0-4 last season
Final30
Line movement open Sep 29
HOU spread
-2.5 -3
0.5
Total
47.5 48.5
1.0
The angle, before kickoff
Lean · 5/10
HOU -3 with three SMASH spots: Dallas defense ranks 27th or worse vs QB, RB and WR.
SideBET HOME -3DAL defense ranks 27th or worse vs every HOU starting position.
TotalPASSimplied sum 47.4 sits right on the 47.5 line.
Best bet
David Montgomery over 45.5 rushing yards against Dallas's #27 run defense that allows 180 rush yards per game.
Quick hits
- Market HOU -3, total 47.5, implied HOU 25.2 / DAL 22.2.
- Balanced-to-high scoring, both defenses leak points, DAL allows 27.3 (#25).
- Decisive edge: HOU skill vs DAL secondary, Stroud faces #30 QB defense.
- HOU home favorite, pass-leaning at 63%, DAL pushes back through the air.
- Nico Collins questionable (hamstring) is the swing for Houston's ceiling.
Key matchups
- C.J. Stroud vs DAL #30 QB defense: 23.8 fpa, SMASH, elite spot.
- Nico Collins vs DAL #27 WR defense: 35.5 fpa, SMASH if active.
- David Montgomery vs DAL #27 RB defense: 25.5 fpa, SMASH, ground league.
- CeeDee Lamb vs HOU #21 WR defense: 32.7 fpa, FAVORABLE top target.
- Javonte Williams vs HOU #1 RB defense: 16.5 fpa, TOUGH, avoid on ground.
- Dalton Schultz vs DAL #21 TE defense: 14.2 fpa, FAVORABLE secondary stack.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL |
Dak Prescott | QB | 19.3 | $6,400 | HOU #22 of 32 | 18.1 | Favorable |
| DAL |
CeeDee Lamb | WR | 17.7 | $7,800 | HOU #26 of 32 | 36.3 | Smash |
| DAL |
Javonte Williams | RB | 14.2 | $6,600 | HOU #4 of 32 | 18.5 | Tough |
| DAL |
Jake Ferguson | TE | 8.2 | $4,300 | HOU #13 of 32 | 12.6 | Neutral |
| HOU |
C.J. Stroud | QB | 18.3 | $5,700 | DAL #31 of 32 | 24.1 | Smash |
| HOU |
Nico Collins | WR | 15.6 | $7,200 | DAL #31 of 32 | 38.6 | Smash |
| HOU |
David Montgomery | RB | 13.5 | $5,700 | DAL #24 of 32 | 23.9 | Favorable |
| HOU |
Dalton Schultz | TE | 10.3 | $4,800 | DAL #18 of 32 | 13.7 | Neutral |
DAL skill positions vs HOU defenseQB
#22/32
18.1 fpa
RB
#4/32
18.5 fpa
WR
#26/32
36.3 fpa
TE
#13/32
12.6 fpa
HOU skill positions vs DAL defenseQB
#31/32
24.1 fpa
RB
#24/32
23.9 fpa
WR
#31/32
38.6 fpa
TE
#18/32
13.7 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- HOU runs 67 plays (#3) at 63% pass, DAL 59 plays (#23) at 60%.
- HOU favored, leans run with Montgomery into DAL #31 rush defense (180 yds).
- Points split evenly, implied 25.2 vs 22.2, both red-zone soft.
Projected points (market implied)
DAL22.8
HOU25.8
Offense profile
DALRank of 32HOU
30.5
#2
Pts / G
21.0
#19
266.5
#7
Pass yds / G
285.2
#6
89.5
#26
Rush yds / G
79.0
#30
62.5
#15
Plays / G
63.5
#9
61%
Pass rate
63%
2.0
Pass TD / G
1.2
1.5
Rush TD / G
1.0
1.5
Sacks taken / G
3.0
0.2
INT thrown / G
0.0
Defense profile
DALRank of 32HOU
28.0
#29
Pts allowed / G
27.2
#27
243.0
#21
Pass yds allowed
277.8
#30
150.2
#31
Rush yds allowed
83.8
#4
1.0
Sacks / G
3.5
0.0
INT / G
0.2
2.2
Pass TD allowed
1.5
1.0
Rush TD allowed
1.2
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 4 games per team.
Weather
Indoor: no weather factor. NRG Stadium is a covered venue.
- Indoor: no weather factor.
DFS
- Stack Stroud ($5700) with Collins ($7200) if active, into DAL #30/#27.
- Value: David Montgomery $5700, 2.44x, SMASH vs #27 run defense.
- Fade: Javonte Williams $6600, 2.19x, into HOU #1 RB defense.
- Contrarian: Dalton Schultz $4800, FAVORABLE vs #21, cheap pivot if Collins sits.
DAL projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Dak Prescott | 19.3 | 12.1 / 27.7 | $6,400 | 3.02x | $8,100 | #22 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb | 17.7 | 9.4 / 30.0 | $7,800 | 2.27x | $8,500 | #26 |
| WR | George Pickens | 15.2 | 7.4 / 27.5 | $6,300 | 2.42x | $7,900 | #26 |
| RB | Javonte Williams | 14.2 | 7.9 / 22.5 | $6,600 | 2.15x | $7,500 | #4 |
| WR | Ryan Flournoy | 8.5 | 3.4 / 15.5 | $3,800 | 2.24x | $5,100 | #26 |
| TE | Jake Ferguson | 8.2 | 3.2 / 14.9 | $4,300 | 1.90x | $5,400 | #13 |
| RB | Tyler Goodson | 2.4 | 0.4 / 5.8 | $4,000 | 0.60x | $4,500 | #4 |
HOU projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | C.J. Stroud | 18.3 | 11.5 / 26.7 | $5,700 | 3.21x | $7,000 | #31 |
| WR | Nico Collins | 15.6 | 7.5 / 28.1 | $7,200 | 2.17x | $7,400 | #31 |
| RB | David Montgomery | 13.5 | 7.0 / 22.2 | $5,700 | 2.37x | $6,500 | #24 |
| TE | Dalton Schultz | 10.3 | 4.6 / 17.8 | $4,800 | 2.14x | $5,600 | #18 |
| RB | Woody Marks | 8.9 | 4.3 / 15.6 | $4,700 | 1.89x | $5,600 | #24 |
| WR | Xavier Hutchinson | 7.0 | 2.2 / 13.7 | $4,300 | 1.64x | $5,600 | #31 |
| WR | Kayshon Boutte | 5.4 | 0.0 / 12.5 | $4,400 | 1.23x | $5,300 | #31 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- David Montgomery - rushing yards 45.5 - OVER - vs DAL #27 run D, 25.5 fpa.
- CeeDee Lamb - receiving yards 76.5 - OVER - FAVORABLE vs HOU #21, proj 17.7.
- C.J. Stroud - passing yards 245.5 - OVER - SMASH vs DAL #30 QB, 23.8 fpa.
- Nico Collins - receiving yards 73.5 - LEAN OVER - SMASH spot but hamstring questionable.
Injuries
DAL 8 listed- Out DJ Rogers TE Knee Severe
- IR Malik Davis RB Hip Severe
- IR Princeton Fant TE Unknown Severe
- Out DeMarvion Overshown ILB Hamstring Minimal
- Out Decobie Durant CB Hamstring Minimal
- Out Kelvin Gilliam DT Triceps Minimal
- IR Devin Moore CB Unknown Minimal
- IR Jalen Thompson FS Hamstring Minimal
HOU 8 listed- Out Graham Mertz QB Unknown Severe
- Out Azeez Al-Shaair LB Groin Minimal
- Out E.J. Speed LB Quadriceps Minimal
- Out M.J. Stewart Jr. FS Knee Minimal
- Out Solomon Byrd DE Ankle Minimal
- Quest. Ed Ingram G Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Jadeveon Clowney DE Knee Minimal
- Quest. Jake Hansen LB Knee Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- HOU 0-3, lost last five; DAL 1-2, dropped two of three.
- H2H: HOU won 34-10 in 2024, split prior meeting.
- Spread moved HOU -2.5 to -3.0, total flat at 47.5.
DAL last 5W 34-30 @ HOUL 31-34 vs BALW 37-20 vs WASL 20-28 @ NYGL 17-34 @ NYG
HOU last 5L 30-34 vs DALL 17-19 @ INDL 6-20 vs CINL 31-36 vs BUFL 16-28 @ NE
Head-to-head
- Oct 4, 2026 DAL 34 at HOU 30
- Nov 18, 2024 HOU 34 at DAL 10
- Dec 11, 2022 HOU 23 at DAL 27
Watch list
- Nico Collins (hamstring) status - his absence caps HOU passing and shifts to Hutchinson.
- DAL secondary: Durant, Hooker, Revel all questionable - thinner coverage raises HOU ceiling.
- Spread at HOU -3 - watch for move past the key number before kickoff.
Week 4 slate
Swipe for all 16 games this week.
PIT @ CLE
Thu 8:15 PM ET
PIT -6.5
O/U 37.5
Final
IND @ WAS
Sun 9:30 AM ET
IND -10.5
O/U 45.5
Final
ARI @ NYG
Sun 1:00 PM ET
ARI -2.5
O/U 44.5
Final
DAL @ HOU
Sun 1:00 PM ET
HOU -3
O/U 48.5
Final
GB @ TB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
GB -2.5
O/U 38.5
Final
JAX @ CIN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -2.5
O/U 51.5
Final
LA @ PHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
LA -3.5
O/U 42.5
Final
NE @ BUF
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF -6.5
O/U 49.5
Final
NYJ @ CHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -3.5
O/U 43.5
Final
TEN @ BAL
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -11.5
O/U 42.5
Final
MIA @ MIN
Sun 4:05 PM ET
MIN -9.5
O/U 38.5
Final
DEN @ SF
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SF -2.5
O/U 47.5
Final
KC @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
KC -4.5
O/U 47.5
Final
LAC @ SEA
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SEA -7
O/U 43.5
Final
DET @ CAR
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DET -3.5
O/U 51.5
Final
ATL @ NO
Mon 8:15 PM ET
NO -1.5
O/U 47.5
Kicked off