Archived Week 4 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · CBS · Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Division Indoor Final
Kansas City Chiefs
3-0 · 4-0 last season
Final30
At
KC -4.5 Total 47.5 LV covered · Over
Las Vegas Raiders
3-0 · 3-1 last season
Final27
Line movement open Sep 29
LV spread
+4.5 +4.5
no move
Total
47.5 47.5
no move
The angle, before kickoff
Lean · 4/10
KC -4.5 with implied 26, but their #2 QB defense is the real edge against Cousins.
SideBET AWAY -4.5KC defense ranks #2 vs QB and #3 vs WR, choking LV passing.
TotalPASSimplied total 47.5 sits exactly on the line.
Best bet
Kirk Cousins under 222.5 passing yards against the NFL's #2-ranked QB defense.
Quick hits
- KC -4.5, total 47.5, implied KC 26.0 and LV 21.5.
- Balanced-to-moderate scoring, both offenses average 29.3 but KC defense ranks top-3 in points and pass yards.
- KC defense vs LV passing: QB #2, WR #3, caps the Raiders upside.
- KC favored and should lead, LV leans on Jeanty and Bowers to stay close.
- O'Connell questionable means Cousins starts into the league's #2 QB matchup.
Key matchups
- Travis Kelce vs LV #24 vs TE: 15.1 fpa, softest KC spot, FAVORABLE.
- Kirk Cousins vs KC #2 vs QB: 13.7 fpa, worst spot on the board, TOUGH.
- Tre Tucker vs KC #3 vs WR: 26.1 fpa label avoid, TOUGH for the WR.
- Ashton Jeanty vs KC #6 vs RB: 19.3 fpa, top-6 run defense, TOUGH.
- Kenneth Walker III vs LV #14 vs RB: 20.9 fpa, NEUTRAL with 20.6 projection.
- Rashee Rice vs LV #9 vs WR: 28.9 fpa but rank-9, NEUTRAL.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC |
Kenneth Walker III | RB | 20.4 | $8,200 | LV #19 of 32 | 22.8 | Neutral |
| KC |
Patrick Mahomes | QB | 20.1 | $6,500 | LV #15 of 32 | 17.3 | Neutral |
| KC |
Rashee Rice | WR | 14.5 | $6,400 | LV #12 of 32 | 30.5 | Neutral |
| KC |
Travis Kelce | TE | 12.6 | $5,000 | LV #20 of 32 | 14.1 | Favorable |
| LV |
Brock Bowers | TE | 17.6 | $6,900 | KC #26 of 32 | 16.9 | Smash |
| LV |
Ashton Jeanty | RB | 16.9 | $7,100 | KC #6 of 32 | 19.6 | Tough |
| LV |
Kirk Cousins | QB | 15.0 | $5,100 | KC #4 of 32 | 15.3 | Tough |
| LV |
Tre Tucker | WR | 9.3 | $5,100 | KC #2 of 32 | 24.9 | Tough |
KC skill positions vs LV defenseQB
#15/32
17.3 fpa
RB
#19/32
22.8 fpa
WR
#12/32
30.5 fpa
TE
#20/32
14.1 fpa
LV skill positions vs KC defenseQB
#4/32
15.3 fpa
RB
#6/32
19.6 fpa
WR
#2/32
24.9 fpa
TE
#26/32
16.9 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- KC runs 65 plays at 52% pass, LV 63 plays at 50%, moderate pace both.
- KC leads and leans run with Walker, LV forced toward Bowers and Jeanty short.
- Points skew KC 26.0 via balanced attack, LV 21.5 capped by KC secondary.
Projected points (market implied)
KC26.0
LV21.5
Offense profile
KCRank of 32LV
29.5
#6
Pts / G
28.8
#8
260.2
#10
Pass yds / G
256.5
#12
162.2
#3
Rush yds / G
93.0
#25
63.0
#14
Plays / G
67.0
#5
52%
Pass rate
55%
2.2
Pass TD / G
2.8
1.2
Rush TD / G
0.2
1.5
Sacks taken / G
1.2
0.5
INT thrown / G
1.0
Defense profile
KCRank of 32LV
19.2
#6
Pts allowed / G
21.0
#11
229.0
#15
Pass yds allowed
224.8
#12
92.8
#5
Rush yds allowed
134.5
#28
1.0
Sacks / G
3.0
1.0
INT / G
1.0
1.0
Pass TD allowed
1.8
0.8
Rush TD allowed
1.0
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 4 games per team.
Weather
Indoor: no weather factor. Allegiant Stadium is a covered venue.
- Indoor: no weather factor.
DFS
- Stack Mahomes ($6500) with Kelce ($5000) into the #24 TE matchup.
- Value Michael Mayer $3400 at 2.08x if Bowers draws coverage.
- Fade Tre Tucker $5100, 1.76x into KC #3 WR defense.
- Contrarian Ashton Jeanty $7100 despite the tough #6 run spot, 19.1 projection.
KC projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | 20.4 | 12.0 / 30.4 | $8,200 | 2.49x | $8,500 | #19 |
| QB | Patrick Mahomes | 20.1 | 12.8 / 28.7 | $6,500 | 3.09x | $8,000 | #15 |
| WR | Rashee Rice | 14.5 | 7.4 / 24.5 | $6,400 | 2.26x | $7,500 | #12 |
| TE | Travis Kelce | 12.6 | 6.2 / 21.6 | $5,000 | 2.52x | $5,500 | #20 |
| WR | Xavier Worthy | 9.7 | 4.1 / 17.2 | $4,600 | 2.12x | $5,700 | #12 |
| RB | Emmett Johnson | 5.7 | 2.3 / 11.1 | $4,400 | 1.29x | $5,100 | #19 |
| WR | Tyquan Thornton | 5.2 | 0.1 / 12.0 | $3,400 | 1.54x | $5,000 | #12 |
LV projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | Brock Bowers | 17.6 | 9.8 / 29.1 | $6,900 | 2.55x | $7,200 | #26 |
| RB | Ashton Jeanty | 16.9 | 10.2 / 25.5 | $7,100 | 2.39x | $7,800 | #6 |
| QB | Kirk Cousins | 15.0 | 9.0 / 22.6 | $5,100 | 2.95x | $7,300 | #4 |
| WR | Tre Tucker | 9.3 | 3.6 / 17.1 | $5,100 | 1.83x | $5,800 | #2 |
| TE | Michael Mayer | 6.6 | 2.3 / 12.6 | $3,400 | 1.94x | $4,700 | #26 |
| WR | Jalen Nailor questionable | 6.1 | 1.6 / 12.7 | $3,600 | 1.69x | $5,000 | #2 |
| RB | Mike Washington Jr. | 4.3 | 1.4 / 10.5 | $4,100 | 1.05x | $5,000 | #6 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Travis Kelce - receptions o4.5 (+110) - lean over, LV #24 vs TE.
- Kirk Cousins - passing yards u222.5 - lean under, KC #2 QB defense.
- Tre Tucker - receiving yards u37.5 - lean under, KC #3 WR defense, 9.0 proj.
- Brock Bowers - receptions o6.5 (-132) - lean over, primary target at 17.2 proj.
Injuries
KC 6 listed- Out Jeff Caldwell WR Knee Severe
- IR John Michael Gyllenborg TE Knee Severe
- Out Josh Simmons OT Back Minimal
- IR Cooper McDonald LB Knee Minimal
- IR Ethan Downs DE Downs Minimal
- IR Matt Waletzko OT Undisclosed Minimal
LV 8 listed- Out Chris Collier RB Undisclosed Severe
- Out Corey Rucker WR Undisclosed Severe
- IR Carter Runyon TE Undisclosed Severe
- IR Dont'e Thornton WR Undisclosed Severe
- IR Jack Bech WR Forearm Severe
- Out Brennan Jackson OLB Unknown Minimal
- Out Jackson Powers-Johnson G Unknown Minimal
- Out Justin Pickett G Unknown Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- KC 3-0, LV 3-0, LV riding a four-game win streak into this.
- H2H: LV won last meeting 14-12 at home on 2026-01-04.
- Line static: spread 4.5 and total 47.5 unchanged since Sept 29.
KC last 5W 30-27 @ LVW 24-10 @ MIAW 33-30 vs INDW 31-10 vs DENL 12-14 @ LV
LV last 5L 27-30 vs KCW 35-27 @ NOW 26-14 @ LACW 27-13 vs MIAW 14-12 vs KC
Head-to-head
- Oct 4, 2026 KC 30 at LV 27
- Jan 4, 2026 KC 12 at LV 14
- Oct 19, 2025 LV 0 at KC 31
Watch list
- Aidan O'Connell questionable (personal) - confirms Cousins starts and the under lean.
- L'Jarius Sneed questionable (CB) - his absence softens KC's elite WR coverage.
- Josh Simmons questionable (OT) - watch KC pass protection with 1.3 sacks allowed.
- Jackson Powers-Johnson questionable (groin) - LV interior affects Jeanty's tough run matchup.
Week 4 slate
Swipe for all 16 games this week.
PIT @ CLE
Thu 8:15 PM ET
PIT -6.5
O/U 37.5
Final
IND @ WAS
Sun 9:30 AM ET
IND -10.5
O/U 45.5
Final
ARI @ NYG
Sun 1:00 PM ET
ARI -2.5
O/U 44.5
Final
DAL @ HOU
Sun 1:00 PM ET
HOU -3
O/U 48.5
Final
GB @ TB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
GB -2.5
O/U 38.5
Final
JAX @ CIN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -2.5
O/U 51.5
Final
LA @ PHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
LA -3.5
O/U 42.5
Final
NE @ BUF
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF -6.5
O/U 49.5
Final
NYJ @ CHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -3.5
O/U 43.5
Final
TEN @ BAL
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -11.5
O/U 42.5
Final
MIA @ MIN
Sun 4:05 PM ET
MIN -9.5
O/U 38.5
Final
DEN @ SF
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SF -2.5
O/U 47.5
Final
KC @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
KC -4.5
O/U 47.5
Final
LAC @ SEA
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SEA -7
O/U 43.5
Final
DET @ CAR
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DET -3.5
O/U 51.5
Final
ATL @ NO
Mon 8:15 PM ET
NO -1.5
O/U 47.5
Kicked off