Archived Week 4 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · Highmark Stadium, Buffalo Division Final

New England Patriots

1-2 · 2-2 last season

Final29

At BUF -6.5 Total 49.5 NE covered · Over

Buffalo Bills

3-0 · 3-1 last season

Final26

Line movement open Sep 29 BUF spread -6.5 -6.5 no move Total 48.5 49.5 1.0

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 4/10

BUF -6.5 and the model agree at a 6.5 margin, but Stevenson is a smash into Buffalo's 28th-ranked run defense.

SidePASSmodel margin of 6.5 sits exactly on BUF -6.5 with no line move.

TotalPASSprojected 49.5 lands exactly on the 49.5 line.

Best bet

Stevenson over 32.5 rushing yards against Buffalo's 28th-ranked run defense allowing 25.7 fpa.

Quick hits

Market BUF -6.5, total 49.5, implied NE 21.5 / BUF 28.0.
Balanced-to-high: BUF offense #1 at 33.7 pts, NE offense dead last #32 at 12.0.
Josh Allen (proj 24.7) vs NE's #4 QB defense is the decisive clash.
BUF leads and controls; both run near 49-50% pass, script favors ground.
NE skill health: Gonzalez and Barmore questionable could reopen the BUF passing game.

Key matchups

Rhamondre Stevenson vs BUF RB #28 (25.7 fpa): softest spot on the board, SMASH.
Hunter Henry vs BUF TE #2 (9.1 fpa): avoid, toughest NE pass-catcher spot.
Josh Allen vs NE QB #4 (14.6 fpa): elite arm into a top-5 defense, capped.
Dalton Kincaid vs NE TE #4 (10.5 fpa): tough, projection 10.7 at risk.
DJ Moore vs NE WR #15 (31.0 fpa): neutral, and shoulder keeps him questionable.
James Cook III vs NE RB #8 (19.9 fpa): neutral, volume over efficiency play.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
NE	Drake Maye	QB	16.6	$6,000	BUF #25 of 32	18.7	Favorable
NE	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	10.7	$5,100	BUF #28 of 32	25.3	Smash
NE	Mack Hollins	WR	10.5	$4,000	BUF #22 of 32	33.8	Favorable
NE	Hunter Henry	TE	9.0	$3,500	BUF #3 of 32	9.6	Tough
BUF	Josh Allen	QB	25.5	$7,700	NE #3 of 32	15.2	Tough
BUF	James Cook III	RB	16.0	$7,400	NE #9 of 32	20.1	Neutral
BUF	DJ Moore	WR	11.9	$5,700	NE #20 of 32	32.8	Favorable
BUF	Dalton Kincaid	TE	11.5	$5,300	NE #6 of 32	9.8	Tough

NE skill positions vs BUF defense

#25/32

18.7 fpa

Elite

#28/32

25.3 fpa

Elite

#22/32

33.8 fpa

Good

#3/32

9.6 fpa

Avoid

BUF skill positions vs NE defense

#3/32

15.2 fpa

Avoid

#9/32

20.1 fpa

Bad

#20/32

32.8 fpa

Good

#6/32

9.8 fpa

Avoid

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

Pace modest: NE 60 plays #18, BUF 61 plays #15, both roughly 49-50% pass.
BUF leads early and leans run; Cook 2.7 rush TD offense, NE chases but #32 scoring.
Points skew Buffalo: implied 28.0 vs 21.5, BUF 1.7 pass and 2.7 rush TD per game.

Projected points (market implied)

NE21.5

BUF28.0

Offense profile

NERank of 32BUF

16.2 #30 Pts / G 31.8 #1

225.0 #18 Pass yds / G 263.2 #8

117.8 #10 Rush yds / G 139.0 #5

63.2 #13 Plays / G 59.5 #22

51% Pass rate 52%

1.0 Pass TD / G 1.5

0.5 Rush TD / G 2.5

2.5 Sacks taken / G 2.2

1.8 INT thrown / G 0.8

Defense profile

NERank of 32BUF

19.2 #7 Pts allowed / G 26.8 #25

205.5 #5 Pass yds allowed 274.0 #28

104.0 #14 Rush yds allowed 116.0 #19

2.0 Sacks / G 2.5

0.8 INT / G 0.5

1.2 Pass TD allowed 2.5

1.0 Rush TD allowed 0.8

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 4 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-10-04 13:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

64°F

feels 59°

Wind

9 mph SSW

gusts 13 mph

Rain

0.00 in

Humidity

64%

Sunny, 63F, wind 8 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Overcast 66F, wind 11 mph SSE, rain 13%, precip 0.00: minor impact only.
Wind nicks long field goals; passing and total largely unaffected.

DFS

Stack Josh Allen ($7700) with DJ Moore ($5700) if Moore clears the shoulder.
Value Mack Hollins $4000 at 2.66x, cheap WR floor in a neutral WR spot.
Fade TreVeyon Henderson $5200 at 1.57x, stuck behind Stevenson's smash workload.
Contrarian: Stevenson $5100 as a leverage RB into the #28 run defense.

NE projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Drake Maye	16.6	10.5 / 24.3	$6,000	2.77x	$7,400	#25
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	10.7	5.9 / 17.1	$5,100	2.09x	$5,700	#28
WR	Mack Hollins questionable	10.5	4.8 / 18.2	$4,000	2.62x	$5,700	#22
RB	TreVeyon Henderson	9.2	4.3 / 16.2	$5,200	1.76x	$6,200	#28
WR	Romeo Doubs	9.0	3.6 / 16.3	$4,700	1.91x	$5,500	#22
TE	Hunter Henry	9.0	3.9 / 15.9	$3,500	2.58x	$5,000	#3
WR	DeMario Douglas	7.4	2.9 / 13.6	$3,500	2.12x	$5,100	#22

BUF projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Josh Allen	25.5	16.8 / 35.7	$7,700	3.31x	$9,100	#3
RB	James Cook III	16.0	8.5 / 25.4	$7,400	2.16x	$8,200	#9
WR	DJ Moore questionable	11.9	5.2 / 21.9	$5,700	2.09x	$6,700	#20
TE	Dalton Kincaid	11.5	5.2 / 20.7	$5,300	2.17x	$6,100	#6
WR	Khalil Shakir	10.0	4.2 / 17.8	$4,700	2.13x	$5,700	#20
RB	Ty Johnson	5.0	1.5 / 10.8	$4,400	1.13x	$5,200	#9
WR	Keon Coleman	4.9	0.0 / 11.5	$4,000	1.23x	$5,300	#20

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Rhamondre Stevenson - rushing yards 32.5 - OVER (-108) - BUF #28 vs RB, elite 25.7 fpa.
Josh Allen - passing TDs 1.5 - UNDER (o-143) - NE #4 QB defense allows 1.3 pass TD.
James Cook III - rushing yards 86.5 - UNDER (o+100) - NE RB #8 neutral, 107 rush allowed.
Mack Hollins - receptions 3.5 - OVER (-114) - cheap target volume vs neutral WR matchup.

All NE and BUF props with AI grades

Injuries

NE 8 listed

Out Myles Montgomery RB Unknown Severe
Out Brenden Schooler FS Back Minimal
Out Channing Canada CB Hamstring Minimal
Out Christian Barmore DE Shoulder Minimal
Out Christian Gonzalez CB Shoulder Minimal
Out Harold Landry III OLB Undisclosed Minimal
Quest. Christian Elliss ILB Chest Minimal
Quest. Eli Raridon TE Thigh Minimal

BUF 5 listed

Out Tyrell Shavers WR Unknown Severe
Quest. Christian Benford CB Toe Minimal
Quest. T.J. Sanders DE Appendix Minimal
IR Jordan Hancock FS Hamstring Minimal
IR Zane Durant DT Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

Form: BUF 3-0 scoring 33.7, NE 1-2 and just lost 6-35 at JAX.
H2H: last three split, BUF won 35-31 in December, NE won 23-20 in October.
Line: spread stuck at BUF -6.5, total ticked up 48.5 to 49.5.

NE last 5

W 29-26 @ BUFL 6-35 @ JAXW 20-3 vs PITL 10-13 @ SEAL 13-29 vs SEA

BUF last 5

L 26-29 vs NEW 24-16 vs LACW 41-31 vs DETW 36-31 @ HOUL 30-33 @ DEN

Head-to-head

Oct 4, 2026 NE 29 at BUF 26
Dec 14, 2025 BUF 35 at NE 31
Oct 5, 2025 NE 23 at BUF 20

Watch list

DJ Moore shoulder: his status swings the BUF-Allen stack and WR market.
Christian Gonzalez shoulder: NE CB1 out would soften NE's #6 pass defense.
Total at 49.5: another uptick signals sharp lean to the over.
Keon Coleman ankle: questionable, elevates Shakir and Moore target share if out.

Week 4 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

PIT @ CLE