Archived Week 4 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · CBS · Lumen Field, Seattle Final

Los Angeles Chargers

0-3 · 0-4 last season

Final23

At SEA -7 Total 43.5 Push · Over

Seattle Seahawks

2-1 · 3-1 last season

Final30

Line movement open Sep 29 SEA spread -7 -7 no move Total 43.5 43.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Pass · 2/10

SEA -7 with LAC's #29 offense walking into Seattle's #1 pass defense.

SideBET HOME -7SEA #1 pass D strangles LAC's #29 offense at home.

TotalPASSprojected 43.4 sits right on the 43.5 line.

Best bet

Smith-Njigba over 91.5 receiving yards, 22.9 projection against LAC's porous #12 WR coverage.

Quick hits

SEA -7, total 43.5, implied LAC 18.2 / SEA 25.2.
Low-to-balanced scoring, LAC #29 points into SEA #4 points-allowed.
SEA #1 vs WR mutes McConkey, Johnston and Harris all TOUGH.
SEA leads and controls, LAC forced pass-heavy chasing points.
McConkey questionable (foot) thins an already stuck passing attack.

Key matchups

Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs LAC #12 WR: 22.9 proj, best spot on board, NEUTRAL-plus.
Justin Herbert vs SEA #3 QB: 14.2 proj, 199.5 yard prop, TOUGH.
Ladd McConkey vs SEA #1 WR: 11.3 proj, questionable foot, TOUGH.
Omarion Hampton vs SEA #5 RB: 10.4 proj, 46.5 rush line, TOUGH.
Sam Darnold vs LAC #7 QB: 18.3 proj, decent floor, TOUGH.
Oronde Gadsden vs SEA #15 TE: 7.7 proj, only neutral LAC spot.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
LAC	Justin Herbert	QB	14.8	$5,400	SEA #2 of 32	14.0	Tough
LAC	Ladd McConkey	WR	11.1	$5,800	SEA #1 of 32	23.5	Tough
LAC	Omarion Hampton	RB	10.6	$6,300	SEA #10 of 32	20.1	Neutral
LAC	Oronde Gadsden II	TE	7.7	$3,600	SEA #11 of 32	12.4	Neutral
SEA	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	22.7	$9,100	LAC #14 of 32	31.0	Neutral
SEA	Sam Darnold	QB	17.5	$5,500	LAC #6 of 32	15.8	Tough
SEA	Emanuel Wilson	RB	9.7	$4,700	LAC #14 of 32	21.1	Neutral
SEA	AJ Barner	TE	8.8	$3,000	LAC #7 of 32	10.3	Tough

LAC skill positions vs SEA defense

#2/32

14.0 fpa

Avoid

#10/32

20.1 fpa

Bad

#1/32

23.5 fpa

Avoid

#11/32

12.4 fpa

Bad

SEA skill positions vs LAC defense

#6/32

15.8 fpa

Avoid

#14/32

21.1 fpa

Bad

#14/32

31.0 fpa

Bad

#7/32

10.3 fpa

Avoid

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

LAC 59 plays (#24), SEA 60 (#19), both slow, 52-55% pass rates.
SEA leads and leans run, LAC passes chasing from behind.
Points tilt SEA 25.2 to 18.2, Darnold 2.7 pass TD drives red zone.

Projected points (market implied)

LAC18.2

SEA25.2

Offense profile

LACRank of 32SEA

16.8 #29 Pts / G 26.2 #11

204.0 #23 Pass yds / G 249.0 #15

121.5 #9 Rush yds / G 110.2 #13

61.2 #17 Plays / G 59.2 #23

52% Pass rate 51%

1.0 Pass TD / G 2.5

0.8 Rush TD / G 0.8

3.0 Sacks taken / G 1.5

1.5 INT thrown / G 0.8

Defense profile

LACRank of 32SEA

26.5 #24 Pts allowed / G 18.2 #5

229.0 #16 Pass yds allowed 161.2 #2

121.8 #22 Rush yds allowed 102.0 #12

2.5 Sacks / G 2.8

1.0 INT / G 1.5

1.5 Pass TD allowed 1.5

1.5 Rush TD allowed 0.2

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 4 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-10-04 13:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Cloudy

Temp

73°F

feels 71°

Wind

3 mph NNW

gusts 10 mph

Rain

0.00 in

Humidity

46%

Cloudy, 73F, wind 3 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Sunny, 73F, wind 4 mph: no weather factor.
Passing and kicking unaffected, totals and DFS stay clean.

DFS

Stack Darnold plus Smith-Njigba, 18.3 and 22.9 proj into soft LAC secondary.
Value AJ Barner $3000 (2.90x), 8.7 proj vs LAC #9 TE.
Fade McConkey $5800 (1.95x), questionable foot into SEA #1 WR.
Contrarian Gadsden $3600 (2.13x), only neutral LAC spot at TE.

LAC projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Justin Herbert	14.8	9.0 / 22.0	$5,400	2.74x	$7,100	#2
WR	Ladd McConkey questionable	11.1	5.0 / 19.6	$5,800	1.91x	$6,400	#1
RB	Omarion Hampton	10.6	5.5 / 17.9	$6,300	1.68x	$7,200	#10
WR	Quentin Johnston	8.9	3.6 / 16.1	$4,800	1.85x	$5,400	#1
WR	Tre' Harris	8.6	3.5 / 15.2	$4,100	2.09x	$5,400	#1
TE	Oronde Gadsden II	7.7	2.9 / 14.4	$3,600	2.14x	$5,000	#11
RB	Keaton Mitchell	7.1	3.3 / 12.7	$4,300	1.64x	$5,200	#10

SEA projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	22.7	12.5 / 35.1	$9,100	2.50x	$9,500	#14
QB	Sam Darnold	17.5	10.7 / 25.4	$5,500	3.18x	$7,500	#6
RB	Emanuel Wilson	9.7	5.2 / 16.6	$4,700	2.06x	$5,600	#14
TE	AJ Barner	8.8	3.5 / 15.8	$3,000	2.95x	$4,900	#7
RB	George Holani	8.3	4.2 / 14.2	$4,500	1.84x	$4,800	#14
WR	Cooper Kupp	6.7	1.9 / 13.3	$4,100	1.63x	$5,400	#14
WR	Rashid Shaheed	6.7	1.9 / 13.3	$3,900	1.71x	$5,100	#14

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Jaxon Smith-Njigba - receiving yards 91.5 - lean over - 22.9 proj, LAC #12 WR soft.
Sam Darnold - passing tds 1.5 - lean over - 2.7 pass TD average, LAC #7 but trending up.
Justin Herbert - passing yards 199.5 - lean under - SEA #1 pass D, 14.2 proj.
Omarion Hampton - rushing yards 46.5 - lean under - SEA #5 run D, 10.4 proj.

All LAC and SEA props with AI grades