Archived Week 4 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · FOX · Soldier Field, Chicago
Final
New York Jets
1-2 · 1-3 last season
Final12
At
CHI -3.5 Total 43.5 CHI covered · Under
Chicago Bears
2-1 · 3-1 last season
Final23
Line movement open Sep 29
CHI spread
-3.5 -3.5
no move
Total
42.5 43.5
1.0
The angle, before kickoff
Lean · 4/10
CHI -3.5 with Swift into NYJ's 31st-ranked run defense, a smash spot at 27.6 fpa.
SideBET HOME -3.5CHI offense #6 and Swift into NYJ's #31 run defense.
TotalPASSprojection 42.5 lands exactly on the line.
Best bet
D'Andre Swift over 63.5 rushing yards against NYJ's 31st-ranked run defense, if active.
Quick hits
- CHI -3.5, total 42.5, implied CHI 23.0 / NYJ 19.5.
- Balanced-to-moderate scoring; CHI offense #6 at 29.7 but total sits at 42.5.
- Swift vs NYJ run defense #31 (27.6 fpa) is the decisive edge.
- CHI leads and runs; Bears pass rate just 48%, rush yards #1 at 184.
- Caleb Williams questionable (hamstring); Keenum projects to start at $4600.
Key matchups
- D'Andre Swift vs NYJ #31 RB (27.6 fpa): smash, softest spot on the board.
- Geno Smith vs CHI #26 QB (19.4 fpa): smash, exploitable secondary.
- Garrett Wilson vs CHI #20 WR (32.4 fpa): favorable, proj 19.5.
- Kenyon Sadiq vs CHI #5 TE (10.6 fpa): tough, avoid the TE here.
- Luther Burden III vs NYJ #11 WR (29.8 fpa): neutral, stingier matchup.
- Case Keenum vs NYJ #21 QB (18.2 fpa): favorable if he starts.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ |
Garrett Wilson | WR | 17.0 | $6,800 | CHI #13 of 32 | 31.0 | Neutral |
| NYJ |
Geno Smith | QB | 15.8 | $5,200 | CHI #21 of 32 | 18.1 | Favorable |
| NYJ |
Braelon Allen | RB | 12.7 | $5,200 | CHI #7 of 32 | 19.7 | Tough |
| NYJ |
Kenyon Sadiq | TE | 10.5 | $4,000 | CHI #4 of 32 | 9.6 | Tough |
| CHI |
D'Andre Swift | RB | 16.1 | $6,400 | NYJ #32 of 32 | 29.5 | Smash |
| CHI |
Tyson Bagent | QB | 15.9 | $4,800 | NYJ #14 of 32 | 17.2 | Neutral |
| CHI |
Luther Burden III | WR | 12.3 | $5,200 | NYJ #10 of 32 | 29.8 | Neutral |
| CHI |
Colston Loveland | TE | 8.6 | $4,700 | NYJ #15 of 32 | 12.8 | Neutral |
NYJ skill positions vs CHI defenseQB
#21/32
18.1 fpa
RB
#7/32
19.7 fpa
WR
#13/32
31.0 fpa
TE
#4/32
9.6 fpa
CHI skill positions vs NYJ defenseQB
#14/32
17.2 fpa
RB
#32/32
29.5 fpa
WR
#10/32
29.8 fpa
TE
#15/32
12.8 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- CHI plays fast, 70 plays #2, but pass rate just 48%, run-heavy.
- Bears favored by 3.5, lead and grind; Jets trail and lean pass at 55%.
- Points from CHI 23.0 implied; 2.3 rush TD/game drives red-zone edge.
Projected points (market implied)
NYJ20.0
CHI23.5
Offense profile
NYJRank of 32CHI
19.0
#23
Pts / G
28.0
#9
225.5
#17
Pass yds / G
244.0
#16
84.0
#28
Rush yds / G
196.2
#1
57.0
#28
Plays / G
74.5
#1
54%
Pass rate
45%
1.2
Pass TD / G
1.0
0.8
Rush TD / G
2.2
3.0
Sacks taken / G
1.8
0.0
INT thrown / G
0.5
Defense profile
NYJRank of 32CHI
21.0
#12
Pts allowed / G
16.2
#4
205.5
#6
Pass yds allowed
194.0
#3
123.5
#25
Rush yds allowed
102.5
#13
2.2
Sacks / G
2.5
0.2
INT / G
0.8
1.2
Pass TD allowed
1.0
1.0
Rush TD allowed
0.8
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 4 games per team.
Weather
At kickoff · 2026-10-04 12:00 local
No weather factor
Conditions
Sunny
Temp
71°F
feels 66°
Wind
8 mph WNW
gusts 13 mph
Rain
1%
0.00 in
Humidity
44%
- Sunny, 71F, wind 8 mph: no weather factor
WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface
- Sunny, 70F, wind 7 mph, 1% rain: no weather factor.
- Passing and kicking unaffected; no total adjustment.
DFS
- Stack Keenum ($4600, 4.01x) with Swift ($6400) for CHI run-lean script.
- Value Kalif Raymond $3600 (3.19x) if Bears pass volume rises.
- Fade Rome Odunze $5000 (1.83x), lowest value among CHI pass catchers.
- Contrarian Geno Smith $5200 (2.94x) into #26 QB defense, cheap ceiling.
NYJ projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | Garrett Wilson | 17.0 | 9.1 / 29.1 | $6,800 | 2.50x | $7,600 | #13 |
| QB | Geno Smith | 15.8 | 9.7 / 23.4 | $5,200 | 3.03x | $6,900 | #21 |
| RB | Braelon Allen | 12.7 | 6.9 / 20.6 | $5,200 | 2.44x | $5,700 | #7 |
| TE | Kenyon Sadiq | 10.5 | 4.6 / 18.5 | $4,000 | 2.63x | $5,300 | #4 |
| WR | Isaiah Williams | 6.7 | 2.4 / 12.6 | $3,500 | 1.91x | $4,900 | #13 |
| RB | Isaiah Davis | 6.6 | 2.8 / 12.5 | $4,200 | 1.58x | $4,700 | #7 |
| TE | Jeremy Ruckert | 4.7 | 1.4 / 10.3 | $2,500 | 1.88x | $4,500 | #4 |
CHI projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | D'Andre Swift | 16.1 | 8.8 / 25.4 | $6,400 | 2.51x | $7,300 | #32 |
| QB | Tyson Bagent | 15.9 | 9.7 / 23.5 | $4,800 | 3.32x | $6,700 | #14 |
| WR | Luther Burden III | 12.3 | 6.0 / 20.9 | $5,200 | 2.37x | $5,800 | #10 |
| WR | Kalif Raymond | 9.6 | 4.2 / 16.7 | $3,600 | 2.66x | $5,200 | #10 |
| TE | Colston Loveland | 8.6 | 3.4 / 15.6 | $4,700 | 1.83x | $5,700 | #15 |
| RB | Kyle Monangai questionable | 8.3 | 3.7 / 15.4 | $4,900 | 1.69x | $6,100 | #32 |
| WR | Rome Odunze | 8.0 | 2.9 / 15.3 | $5,000 | 1.61x | $6,100 | #10 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- D'Andre Swift - rushing yards 63.5 (o-110) - over - #31 run defense, 27.6 fpa.
- Geno Smith - passing yards 227.5 (o-112) - over - #26 QB matchup, proj 15.3.
- Garrett Wilson - receiving yards 74.5 (o+105) - over - #20 WR, proj 19.5.
- Case Keenum - no prop listed - N/A.
Injuries
NYJ 8 listed- Out Adonai Mitchell WR Finger Severe
- Out Breece Hall RB Quadriceps Severe
- Out Mason Taylor TE Thumb Severe
- Out Dylan Parham G Knee Minimal
- Out Francisco Mauigoa LB Quadriceps Minimal
- Out Tre Brown CB Undisclosed Minimal
- Quest. Jarvis Brownlee Jr. DB Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Kingsley Enagbare OLB Knee Minimal
CHI 8 listed- Out Caleb Williams QB Unknown Severe
- IR Brittain Brown RB Undisclosed Severe
- Out Anthony Johnson Jr. FS Unknown Minimal
- Out Dallis Flowers CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Jonathan Garvin DE Unknown Minimal
- Out Ruben Hyppolite II LB Shoulder Minimal
- Out Shemar Turner DE Knee Minimal
- Quest. Cameron Lewis FS Leg Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- CHI 2-1, won 27-7 over PHI last out; NYJ 1-2, lost 24-31 at DET.
- Last H2H 2022: NYJ won 31-10 at home, not predictive here.
- Line static: spread CHI -3.5 and total 42.5 unmoved since open.
NYJ last 5L 12-23 @ CHIL 24-31 @ DETL 17-20 vs GBW 23-10 @ TENL 8-35 @ BUF
CHI last 5W 23-12 vs NYJW 27-7 vs PHIL 3-9 vs MINW 59-37 @ CARL 17-20 vs LA
Head-to-head
- Oct 4, 2026 NYJ 12 at CHI 23
- Nov 27, 2022 CHI 10 at NYJ 31
Watch list
- Caleb Williams (QB, hamstring, questionable) - Keenum start changes CHI passing outlook.
- D'Andre Swift (RB, knee, questionable) - best bet hinges on his status.
- Breece Hall (RB, quad, questionable) - affects NYJ backfield and Allen's volume.
- Spread static at CHI -3.5 - watch for any late move off openers.
Week 4 slate
Swipe for all 16 games this week.
PIT @ CLE
Thu 8:15 PM ET
PIT -6.5
O/U 37.5
Final
IND @ WAS
Sun 9:30 AM ET
IND -10.5
O/U 45.5
Final
ARI @ NYG
Sun 1:00 PM ET
ARI -2.5
O/U 44.5
Final
DAL @ HOU
Sun 1:00 PM ET
HOU -3
O/U 48.5
Final
GB @ TB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
GB -2.5
O/U 38.5
Final
JAX @ CIN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -2.5
O/U 51.5
Final
LA @ PHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
LA -3.5
O/U 42.5
Final
NE @ BUF
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF -6.5
O/U 49.5
Final
NYJ @ CHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -3.5
O/U 43.5
Final
TEN @ BAL
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -11.5
O/U 42.5
Final
MIA @ MIN
Sun 4:05 PM ET
MIN -9.5
O/U 38.5
Final
DEN @ SF
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SF -2.5
O/U 47.5
Final
KC @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
KC -4.5
O/U 47.5
Final
LAC @ SEA
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SEA -7
O/U 43.5
Final
DET @ CAR
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DET -3.5
O/U 51.5
Final
ATL @ NO
Mon 8:15 PM ET
NO -1.5
O/U 47.5
Kicked off