Archived Week 4 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET · NFL NETWORK · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United Kingdom Neutral site Indoor Final

Indianapolis Colts

1-2 · 2-2 last season

Final30

Neutral site IND -10.5 Total 45.5 IND covered · Under

Washington Commanders

1-2 · 1-3 last season

Final13

Line movement open Sep 29 WAS spread +3.5 +10.5 7.0 Total 47.5 45.5 2.0

The angle, before kickoff Strong · 9/10

Two bottom-5 defenses collide: IND -3.5 with a 48.5 total built for shootout fantasy.

SideBET AWAY -3.5IND implied 26.0, 3.5-point edge, faces WAS 31st pass defense.

TotalBET OVER 48.5both defenses rank 30th-plus, total already climbed +1.0.

Best bet

Daniel Jones over 228.5 passing yards against Washington's 31st-ranked pass defense.

Quick hits

IND -3.5, total 48.5, implied IND 26.0 / WAS 22.5.
High scoring: both defenses rank 30th or worse in points allowed.
Jones vs WAS #31 QB defense is the decisive, exploitable edge.
IND leads, moderate pass; WAS chases at 51% pass, run-leaning base.
Mariota starts with Daniels questionable (elbow); confirm before locking QBs.

Key matchups

Josh Downs vs WAS WR defense: 40.8 fpa, #32, softest spot on board.
Daniel Jones vs WAS QB defense: 24.2 fpa, #31, smash.
Tyler Warren vs WAS TE defense: 18.3 fpa, #30, smash.
McLaurin vs IND WR defense: 36.8 fpa, #28, smash.
Mariota vs IND QB defense: 21.0 fpa, #29, smash.
Taylor vs WAS RB defense: 21.0 fpa, #15, neutral, toughest Colts spot.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
IND	Jonathan Taylor	RB	20.3	$7,600	WAS #17 of 32	21.8	Neutral
IND	Daniel Jones	QB	16.5	$5,300	WAS #30 of 32	22.4	Smash
IND	Josh Downs	WR	15.6	$5,800	WAS #30 of 32	38.4	Smash
IND	Tyler Warren	TE	14.1	$5,500	WAS #27 of 32	17.2	Smash
WAS	Marcus Mariota	QB	17.4	$4,800	IND #29 of 32	20.5	Smash
WAS	Stefon Diggs	WR	14.4	$5,300	IND #27 of 32	36.5	Smash
WAS	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	10.2	$4,800	IND #22 of 32	23.3	Favorable
WAS	Chig Okonkwo	TE	7.6	$3,500	IND #21 of 32	14.9	Favorable

IND skill positions vs WAS defense

#30/32

22.4 fpa

Elite

#17/32

21.8 fpa

Average

#30/32

38.4 fpa

Elite

#27/32

17.2 fpa

Elite

WAS skill positions vs IND defense

#29/32

20.5 fpa

Elite

#22/32

23.3 fpa

Good

#27/32

36.5 fpa

Elite

#21/32

14.9 fpa

Good

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

WAS 66 plays (#7), IND 62 (#14); fast pace, WAS passes only 51%.
IND favored, should lead and lean on Taylor; WAS trails and throws more.
Points flow from implied 26.0/22.5; WAS allows 3.7 pass TD, IND 1.7 each way.

Projected points (market implied)

IND28.0

WAS17.5

Offense profile

INDRank of 32WAS

25.5 #13 Pts / G 22.0 #15

188.8 #26 Pass yds / G 196.5 #24

109.5 #14 Rush yds / G 124.0 #8

63.2 #12 Plays / G 65.0 #8

54% Pass rate 54%

0.8 Pass TD / G 2.0

1.8 Rush TD / G 0.2

2.0 Sacks taken / G 1.2

1.0 INT thrown / G 0.2

Defense profile

INDRank of 32WAS

26.0 #22 Pts allowed / G 30.5 #31

276.2 #29 Pass yds allowed 254.5 #25

131.0 #27 Rush yds allowed 93.5 #6

2.2 Sacks / G 1.8

0.2 INT / G 0.8

1.5 Pass TD allowed 2.8

1.2 Rush TD allowed 0.8

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 4 games per team.

Weather

Indoor: no weather factor. Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is a covered venue.

Indoor: no weather factor.

DFS

Stack Jones with Downs and Warren against WAS 32nd/30th ranked coverage.
Value: Mariota $4800 (3.94x) vs IND #29 QB defense, smash price.
Fade Rachaad White $5100 (1.53x), questionable shoulder behind Croskey-Merritt.
Contrarian: McLaurin $5200 vs #28 WR defense, overshadowed by Colts side.

IND projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
RB	Jonathan Taylor	20.3	12.2 / 30.0	$7,600	2.67x	$8,600	#17
QB	Daniel Jones	16.5	10.2 / 24.3	$5,300	3.11x	$7,000	#30
WR	Josh Downs	15.6	8.3 / 26.6	$5,800	2.69x	$6,200	#30
TE	Tyler Warren	14.1	7.4 / 23.4	$5,500	2.56x	$5,800	#27
WR	Laquon Treadwell	5.6	1.4 / 12.2	$3,300	1.71x	$4,500	#30
WR	Deion Burks	3.2	0.0 / 8.8	$3,100	1.04x	$4,100	#30
WR	Ashton Dulin	2.6	0.0 / 7.3	$3,000	0.88x	$4,000	#30

WAS projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Marcus Mariota doubtful	17.4	10.8 / 25.3	$4,800	3.62x	$7,100	#29
WR	Stefon Diggs	14.4	7.1 / 24.7	$5,300	2.71x	$6,300	#27
RB	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	10.2	5.3 / 17.8	$4,800	2.13x	$6,100	#22
TE	Chig Okonkwo	7.6	2.9 / 14.3	$3,500	2.17x	$4,800	#21
WR	Antonio Williams	7.4	2.5 / 14.6	$3,800	1.96x	$5,200	#27
WR	Treylon Burks	5.5	0.3 / 12.7	$3,000	1.84x	$4,600	#27
RB	Austin Ekeler	4.5	1.7 / 9.0	$4,000	1.12x	$1,000	#22

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Josh Downs - receptions 5.5 (o+115) - over - vs #32 WR defense, plus money.
Daniel Jones - passing yards 228.5 (o-112) - over - vs #31 QB defense.
Tyler Warren - receptions 5.5 (o+110) - over - vs #30 TE defense, proj 14.0.
Marcus Mariota - rushing yards 26.5 (o-113) - over - mobile vs #29 QB defense.

All IND and WAS props with AI grades

Injuries

IND 8 listed

Out DJ Giddens RB Unknown Severe
Out Darius Slayton WR Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Keenan Allen WR Groin Severe
Out Riley Leonard QB Unknown Severe
IR Alec Pierce WR Unknown Severe
IR Carson Towt TE Unknown Severe
Out Dalton Tucker G Unknown Minimal
Out George Gumbs Jr. DE Unknown Minimal

WAS 8 listed

Out Jayden Daniels QB Elbow Severe
Out Jaylin Lane WR Unknown Severe
Out Luke McCaffrey WR Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Rachaad White RB Unknown Severe
Out Terry McLaurin WR Hamstring Severe
Out Javontae Jean-Baptiste OLB Unknown Minimal
Out Nick Cross FS Unknown Minimal
Out Samuel Cosmi G Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

IND 1-2, WAS 1-2; both coming off wins, SEA 33-31 and HOU 19-17.
H2H: WAS won last meeting 17-16 in 2022.
Total moved 47.5 to 48.5 (+1.0); spread flat at 3.5.

IND last 5

W 30-13 @ WASW 19-17 vs HOUL 30-33 @ KCL 23-41 vs BALL 30-38 @ HOU

WAS last 5

L 13-30 vs INDW 33-31 vs SEAL 20-37 @ DALL 22-24 @ PHIW 24-17 @ PHI

Head-to-head

Oct 4, 2026 IND 30 at WAS 13
Oct 30, 2022 WAS 17 at IND 16

Watch list

Jayden Daniels questionable (elbow); Mariota confirmed starter changes WAS projections.
Keenan Allen questionable (WR); his status shifts Colts target share to Downs.
Rachaad White questionable (shoulder); out boosts Croskey-Merritt volume and value.
Total moved to 48.5; watch for further climb toward 49.

Week 4 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

PIT @ CLE