Archived Week 4 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · FOX · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay
Final
Green Bay Packers
1-2 · 2-2 last season
Final17
At
GB -2.5 Total 38.5 GB covered · Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0-3 · 0-4 last season
Final14
Line movement open Sep 29
TB spread
+3.5 +2.5
1.0
Total
39.5 38.5
1.0
The angle, before kickoff
Pass · 3/10
GB -3.5 but 24 mph wind caps a 39.5 total built on two sputtering offenses.
SidePASSmargin projects 3.5, identical to the spread with no edge.
TotalBET UNDER 39.524 mph wind, backup TB QB, GB's #32 rush offense.
Best bet
Under 39.5: 24 mph wind and two stalling offenses, one with a backup QB, drag this below the number.
Quick hits
- Market: GB -3.5, total 39.5, implied GB 21.5 / TB 18.0.
- Low scoring: 24 mph wind plus TB backup QB and GB's #32 rush offense.
- Decisive spot: Tucker Kraft vs TB TE defense #27 of 32, SMASH.
- Script: GB leads, pass-heavy at 72%, but wind limits the deep shots.
- Swing factor: Bucky Irving questionable (glute) into GB's #29 run defense.
Key matchups
- Tucker Kraft vs TB TE #27 (16.5 fpa): softest spot, SMASH at $4400.
- Bucky Irving vs GB RB #29 (26.6 fpa): SMASH if the glute clears.
- Emeka Egbuka vs GB WR #23 (34.2 fpa): FAVORABLE, GB secondary leaks.
- Jordan Love vs TB QB #25 (19.3 fpa): FAVORABLE on paper, wind caps ceiling.
- GB run game vs TB RB #2 (76 rush yds allowed): toughest spot, Jacobs out.
- Jalon Daniels vs GB QB #8 (16.4 fpa): tough draw for a backup.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB |
Jordan Love | QB | 17.5 | $5,800 | TB #24 of 32 | 18.6 | Favorable |
| GB |
Christian Watson | WR | 15.5 | $6,700 | TB #6 of 32 | 27.4 | Tough |
| GB |
Tucker Kraft | TE | 10.2 | $4,400 | TB #28 of 32 | 17.5 | Smash |
| GB |
MarShawn Lloyd | RB | 6.2 | $4,800 | TB #8 of 32 | 20.0 | Neutral |
| TB |
Jalon Daniels | QB | 13.6 | $4,400 | GB #7 of 32 | 16.0 | Tough |
| TB |
Bucky Irving | RB | 11.9 | $6,000 | GB #29 of 32 | 26.3 | Smash |
| TB |
Emeka Egbuka | WR | 10.1 | $5,900 | GB #19 of 32 | 32.8 | Neutral |
| TB |
Cade Otton | TE | 6.8 | $3,400 | GB #9 of 32 | 10.9 | Neutral |
GB skill positions vs TB defenseQB
#24/32
18.6 fpa
RB
#8/32
20.0 fpa
WR
#6/32
27.4 fpa
TE
#28/32
17.5 fpa
TB skill positions vs GB defenseQB
#7/32
16.0 fpa
RB
#29/32
26.3 fpa
WR
#19/32
32.8 fpa
TE
#9/32
10.9 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- GB plays 60 plays at a 72% pass rate; TB slower at 59 plays, 60% pass.
- GB favored to lead and lean pass; TB leans on Irving and chases underneath.
- Points scarce: implied 21.5 and 18.0, low TD rates (TB 0.7 pass TD) point under.
Projected points (market implied)
GB20.5
TB18.0
Offense profile
GBRank of 32TB
18.2
#27
Pts / G
19.0
#24
260.2
#9
Pass yds / G
190.8
#25
58.0
#32
Rush yds / G
106.0
#17
58.8
#24
Plays / G
59.8
#21
68%
Pass rate
57%
2.0
Pass TD / G
0.8
0.0
Rush TD / G
0.8
2.0
Sacks taken / G
4.0
0.8
INT thrown / G
1.2
Defense profile
GBRank of 32TB
26.2
#23
Pts allowed / G
24.0
#20
200.5
#4
Pass yds allowed
215.2
#8
139.2
#29
Rush yds allowed
78.5
#3
2.5
Sacks / G
1.5
1.0
INT / G
0.8
1.5
Pass TD allowed
1.5
1.8
Rush TD allowed
0.2
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 4 games per team.
Weather
At kickoff · 2026-10-04 18:00 local
Moderate impact
Conditions
Cloudy
Temp
80°F
feels 66°
Wind
23 mph W
gusts 24 mph
Rain
7%
0.00 in
Humidity
34%
- Wind 23 mph (gusts 23): deep passing and kicking suffer, lean under
WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface
- mph W wind, gusts 25, 78F, 1% rain: deep passing and kicking suffer.
- DraftEdge reads moderate impact, lean under; hurts GB's pass-heavy attack most.
DFS
GB projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jordan Love | 17.5 | 10.9 / 25.4 | $5,800 | 3.01x | $7,700 | #24 |
| WR | Christian Watson | 15.5 | 7.7 / 27.2 | $6,700 | 2.31x | $7,200 | #6 |
| WR | Matthew Golden | 12.4 | 5.9 / 22.1 | $5,400 | 2.31x | $6,300 | #6 |
| TE | Tucker Kraft | 10.2 | 4.4 / 17.9 | $4,400 | 2.31x | $5,800 | #28 |
| RB | MarShawn Lloyd | 6.2 | 2.9 / 12.0 | $4,800 | 1.29x | $5,400 | #8 |
| RB | Kaleb Johnson | 5.7 | 2.6 / 11.8 | $4,600 | 1.25x | $5,300 | #8 |
| WR | Skyy Moore | 4.6 | 1.3 / 10.3 | $3,200 | 1.43x | $4,800 | #6 |
TB projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jalon Daniels | 13.6 | 8.1 / 20.6 | $4,400 | 3.10x | $6,400 | #7 |
| RB | Bucky Irving | 11.9 | 6.9 / 18.9 | $6,000 | 1.98x | $7,400 | #29 |
| WR | Emeka Egbuka | 10.1 | 4.3 / 17.9 | $5,900 | 1.71x | $5,900 | #19 |
| WR | Chris Godwin Jr. | 7.2 | 2.8 / 13.2 | $4,900 | 1.46x | $5,400 | #19 |
| TE | Cade Otton | 6.8 | 2.8 / 12.5 | $3,400 | 2.00x | $4,900 | #9 |
| RB | Kenny Gainwell | 5.9 | 2.6 / 10.9 | $4,700 | 1.25x | $4,900 | #29 |
| WR | Ted Hurst III | 5.7 | 1.6 / 12.0 | $3,100 | 1.83x | $5,300 | #19 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Tucker Kraft - rec yds 42.5 - over - TB TE defense #27, proj 10.0.
- Jordan Love - pass yds 243.5 - under - 24 mph wind caps the deep game.
- Jalon Daniels - pass yds 172.5 - under - GB QB #8 defense, backup starter.
- Bucky Irving - rush yds 55.5 - lean over only if active, GB RB #29.
Injuries
GB 8 listed- Out Josh Jacobs RB Personal Severe
- IR Jayden Reed WR Neck Severe
- IR Luke Musgrave TE Neck Severe
- Out Aaron Banks G Toe/Knee Minimal
- Out Anthony Campbell DT Ankle Minimal
- Out Jacob Monk C Quadriceps Minimal
- Out Johnathan Baldwin FS Unknown Minimal
- Out Jordon Riley DT Unknown Minimal
TB 8 listed- Out Baker Mayfield QB Unknown Severe
- Out David Sills WR Undisclosed Severe
- Out Ko Kieft TE Unknown Severe
- Out Benjamin Morrison CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Billy Schrauth G Unknown Minimal
- Out DeMonte Capehart DT Unknown Minimal
- Out Luke Haggard G Unknown Minimal
- Out Mohamed Kamara OLB Knee Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- Form: TB 0-3, GB 1-2 and coming off a 14-35 loss to ATL.
- H2H: TB won 34-20 in 2023, GB won 14-12 in 2022, split last two.
- Line: spread frozen at GB -3.5, total flat at 39.5 since open.
GB last 5W 17-14 @ TBL 14-35 vs ATLW 20-17 @ NYJL 22-39 @ MINL 27-31 @ CHI
TB last 5L 14-17 vs GBL 16-23 vs MINL 19-23 vs CLEL 27-33 @ CINW 16-14 vs CAR
Head-to-head
- Oct 4, 2026 GB 17 at TB 14
- Dec 17, 2023 TB 34 at GB 20
- Sep 25, 2022 GB 14 at TB 12
Watch list
- Bucky Irving glute: active status swings TB's rushing and his prop.
- Wind speed at kickoff: a drop softens the under and lifts Love's yardage.
- GB interior line (Banks, Monk, Burton questionable): affects pass protection and run blocking.
- Baker Mayfield out confirms Daniels start: keeps TB's implied total at 18.0.
Week 4 slate
Swipe for all 16 games this week.
PIT @ CLE
Thu 8:15 PM ET
PIT -6.5
O/U 37.5
Final
IND @ WAS
Sun 9:30 AM ET
IND -10.5
O/U 45.5
Final
ARI @ NYG
Sun 1:00 PM ET
ARI -2.5
O/U 44.5
Final
DAL @ HOU
Sun 1:00 PM ET
HOU -3
O/U 48.5
Final
GB @ TB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
GB -2.5
O/U 38.5
Final
JAX @ CIN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -2.5
O/U 51.5
Final
LA @ PHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
LA -3.5
O/U 42.5
Final
NE @ BUF
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF -6.5
O/U 49.5
Final
NYJ @ CHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -3.5
O/U 43.5
Final
TEN @ BAL
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -11.5
O/U 42.5
Final
MIA @ MIN
Sun 4:05 PM ET
MIN -9.5
O/U 38.5
Final
DEN @ SF
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SF -2.5
O/U 47.5
Final
KC @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
KC -4.5
O/U 47.5
Final
LAC @ SEA
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SEA -7
O/U 43.5
Final
DET @ CAR
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DET -3.5
O/U 51.5
Final
ATL @ NO
Mon 8:15 PM ET
NO -1.5
O/U 47.5
Kicked off