Archived Week 4 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · CBS · Levi's Stadium, San Francisco Final

Denver Broncos

2-1 · 2-2 last season

Final14

At SF -2.5 Total 47.5 SF covered · Under

San Francisco 49ers

3-0 · 4-0 last season

Final24

Line movement open Sep 29 SF spread -2.5 -2.5 no move Total 47.5 47.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Pass · 3/10

SF -2.5 but model margin matches exactly, San Francisco's #2 offense meets Denver's #31 run game.

SideBET HOME -2.5SF #2 offense and #5 defense outclasses Denver's #22 unit.

TotalPASSprojected total sits exactly on 47.5 with no edge.

Best bet

Christian McCaffrey over 66.5 rushing yards against Denver's #30 run defense.

Quick hits

Market SF -2.5, total 47.5, implied DEN 22.5 and SF 25.0.
Balanced-to-high: SF offense #2 at 32.7 but both run few plays, #30 and #31.
Decisive spot: SF offense versus Denver run defense #30 allowing 144 rush yards.
SF leads, run-leaning behind McCaffrey; Denver forced to chase through a weak #27 pass attack.
Mike Evans questionable (ribs) swings SF's passing ceiling and the game total.

Key matchups

McCaffrey vs DEN RB #19: 22.3 fpa, neutral rank but run D #30, strong floor at proj 21.1.
Kittle vs DEN TE #22: 14.7 fpa, favorable, proj 13.0 with 64.5 yard line.
Harvey vs SF RB #21: 23.3 fpa, favorable receiving spot, proj 9.8.
Evans vs DEN WR #6: 27.9 fpa, tough and questionable, avoid despite proj 14.9.
Deebo vs DEN WR #6: same stingy pass D, limited ceiling at proj 11.3.
Nix vs SF QB #12: 16.8 fpa, neutral, proj 17.2 against Bosa-less front.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
DEN	Bo Nix	QB	18.3	$5,600	SF #8 of 32	16.4	Neutral
DEN	Jaylen Waddle	WR	12.9	$6,200	SF #11 of 32	29.8	Neutral
DEN	J.K. Dobbins	RB	9.3	$5,300	SF #27 of 32	24.7	Smash
DEN	Evan Engram	TE	5.8	$2,900	SF #12 of 32	12.5	Neutral
SF	Christian McCaffrey	RB	21.6	$7,700	DEN #15 of 32	21.7	Neutral
SF	Brock Purdy	QB	20.1	$6,700	DEN #12 of 32	17.0	Neutral
SF	George Kittle	TE	13.8	$5,100	DEN #24 of 32	15.0	Favorable
SF	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	11.0	$5,600	DEN #8 of 32	28.3	Neutral

DEN skill positions vs SF defense

#8/32

16.4 fpa

Avoid

#27/32

24.7 fpa

Elite

#11/32

29.8 fpa

Bad

#12/32

12.5 fpa

Bad

SF skill positions vs DEN defense

#12/32

17.0 fpa

Bad

#15/32

21.7 fpa

Average

#8/32

28.3 fpa

Avoid

#24/32

15.0 fpa

Good

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

Both bottom-5 in plays, #30 and #31, pointing to a slow, condensed pace.
SF scripts a lead and leans run, 51% pass rate; Denver passes to chase at 58%.
Points lean SF, implied 25.0 to 22.5, with McCaffrey and Kittle shaping red zone.

Projected points (market implied)

DEN22.5

SF25.0

Offense profile

DENRank of 32SF

18.5 #26 Pts / G 30.5 #3

205.2 #21 Pass yds / G 251.8 #13

81.2 #29 Rush yds / G 137.2 #6

57.5 #25 Plays / G 57.0 #29

60% Pass rate 49%

1.2 Pass TD / G 2.8

0.5 Rush TD / G 1.2

1.2 Sacks taken / G 0.0

0.8 INT thrown / G 0.2

Defense profile

DENRank of 32SF

23.5 #17 Pts allowed / G 16.0 #3

245.2 #22 Pass yds allowed 215.5 #9

142.8 #30 Rush yds allowed 99.8 #9

2.0 Sacks / G 1.5

1.0 INT / G 0.2

1.5 Pass TD allowed 1.0

1.0 Rush TD allowed 0.5

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 4 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-10-04 13:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

76°F

feels 75°

Wind

3 mph W

gusts 12 mph

Rain

11%

0.00 in

Humidity

48%

Overcast, 75F, wind 3 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Overcast, 76F, wind 5 mph, rain 10%: no weather factor.
Passing, kicking and totals unaffected; play it straight.

DFS

Stack Purdy $6700 with Kittle $5100, TE #22 spot and proj 13.0.
Value Engram $2900 at 2.14x, favorable TE #20 matchup.
Fade Evans $6600, questionable ribs into DEN WR #6.
Contrarian Deebo $5600 if Evans sits, target share jumps.

DEN projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Bo Nix	18.3	11.4 / 26.6	$5,600	3.26x	$7,600	#8
WR	Jaylen Waddle	12.9	6.0 / 23.6	$6,200	2.08x	$6,600	#11
WR	Courtland Sutton	9.4	3.6 / 17.3	$4,900	1.91x	$6,000	#11
RB	J.K. Dobbins	9.3	4.5 / 16.8	$5,300	1.76x	$6,300	#27
RB	RJ Harvey	9.3	4.8 / 15.4	$5,000	1.86x	$5,800	#27
WR	Pat Bryant doubtful	6.9	2.0 / 13.6	$4,200	1.65x	$5,300	#11
TE	Evan Engram	5.8	1.7 / 11.8	$2,900	2.00x	$5,000	#12

SF projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
RB	Christian McCaffrey	21.6	13.3 / 32.0	$7,700	2.81x	$8,800	#15
QB	Brock Purdy	20.1	12.7 / 28.9	$6,700	3.00x	$8,300	#12
TE	George Kittle	13.8	6.8 / 23.9	$5,100	2.72x	$6,700	#24
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	11.0	5.0 / 19.0	$5,600	1.96x	$7,000	#8
WR	Mike Evans	9.2	3.3 / 17.2	$6,600	1.40x	$7,500	#8
WR	Brandin Cooks	4.6	0.0 / 11.4	$3,600	1.28x	$5,600	#8
RB	Kaelon Black	4.4	1.5 / 10.1	$4,600	0.95x	$5,000	#15

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

George Kittle - receiving yards 64.5 - over - DEN TE #22 soft, proj 13.0.
Christian McCaffrey - rushing yards 66.5 - over - DEN run D #30 allows 144.
RJ Harvey - receptions 3.5 - over - SF RB #21 favorable, pass-game role.
J.K. Dobbins - rushing yards 60.5 - lean under - splitting with Harvey, proj 8.9.

All DEN and SF props with AI grades