Archived Week 4 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns
Mon Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · ESPN · Caesars Superdome, New Orleans DivisionPrimetime Indoor Live
Atlanta Falcons
1-2 · 1-2 last season
Implied23.0
At NO -1.5 Total 47.5 Closed · ATL -106 · NO -110
New Orleans Saints
1-2 · 1-2 last season
Implied24.5
Line movement open Sep 29 NO spread -2.5 -1.5 1.0 Total 48.5 47.5 1.0 FanDuel
The angle Lean · 5/10

Chris Olave smashes ATL's 30th-ranked pass defense with A.J. Terrell out.

SideBET HOME -2.5Olave smash plus Terrell out tilts the division game to NO.
TotalPASSmodel total sits exactly on 47.5.
Best bet
Chris Olave over 85.5 receiving yards against ATL's 30th-ranked pass defense with A.J. Terrell out.
Quick hits
  • NO -2.5, total 47.5, implied NO 25.0 and ATL 22.5.
  • Balanced-to-high: NO offense #11 and #1 in plays, ATL offense #27.
  • Olave vs ATL #30 vs WR (37.5 fpa) is the decisive edge.
  • NO leads and throws, pass rate 62%; ATL leans run, 43% pass.
  • A.J. Terrell out cracks an ATL secondary already 27th in pass yards.

Key matchups

  • Chris Olave vs ATL #30 vs WR: 37.5 fpa, proj 20.8, SMASH.
  • Tyler Shough vs ATL #23 vs QB: 18.8 fpa, proj 20.4, favorable.
  • Devaughn Vele vs ATL #30 vs WR: proj 11.8, strong secondary piece.
  • Bijan Robinson vs NO #23 vs RB: 24.1 fpa, proj 23.2, favorable.
  • Drake London vs NO #5 vs WR: 27.5 fpa, proj 15.0, tough.
  • Alvin Kamara vs ATL #3 vs RB: 17.4 fpa, proj 12.7, tough.
TeamPlayerPos ProjDK $ vs defenseFPAEdge
ATL Bijan Robinson RB 24.4 $8,700 NO #26 of 32 24.1 Smash
ATL Drake London WR 15.6 $6,500 NO #7 of 32 27.5 Tough
ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB 15.0 $5,000 NO #5 of 32 15.7 Tough
ATL Kyle Pitts Sr. TE 6.5 $3,900 NO #25 of 32 16.1 Favorable
NO Tyler Shough QB 20.8 $5,600 ATL #27 of 32 18.8 Smash
NO Chris Olave WR 19.6 $7,700 ATL #28 of 32 37.5 Smash
NO Alvin Kamara RB 11.7 $5,000 ATL #1 of 32 17.4 Tough
NO Juwan Johnson TE 10.6 $4,200 ATL #19 of 32 13.8 Neutral
ATL skill positions vs NO defense
QB
#5/32
15.7 fpa
Avoid
RB
#26/32
24.1 fpa
Elite
WR
#7/32
27.5 fpa
Avoid
TE
#25/32
16.1 fpa
Elite
NO skill positions vs ATL defense
QB
#27/32
18.8 fpa
Elite
RB
#1/32
17.4 fpa
Avoid
WR
#28/32
37.5 fpa
Elite
TE
#19/32
13.8 fpa
Good

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

  • NO runs the most plays (#1, 74) at a 62% pass rate; pace favors volume.
  • NO leads and keeps throwing; ATL trails and leans run despite 43% pass rate.
  • Points lean NO 25.0; Shough 1.5 pass TD line, Bijan carries ATL's red zone.
Projected points (market implied)
ATL23.0
NO24.5
Offense profile
ATLRank of 32NO
17.0 #28 Pts / G 27.0 #10
182.3 #28 Pass yds / G 307.3 #2
173.0 #2 Rush yds / G 101.3 #21
63.3 #11 Plays / G 74.0 #2
43% Pass rate 62%
0.7 Pass TD / G 2.7
1.0 Rush TD / G 0.7
2.3 Sacks taken / G 3.3
2.0 INT thrown / G 1.0
Defense profile
ATLRank of 32NO
22.7 #15 Pts allowed / G 27.7 #28
273.3 #27 Pass yds allowed 229.7 #18
47.7 #1 Rush yds allowed 128.7 #26
1.7 Sacks / G 2.3
0.3 INT / G 0.3
2.0 Pass TD allowed 2.0
0.0 Rush TD allowed 1.3

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 4 games per team.

Weather

Indoor: no weather factor. Caesars Superdome is a covered venue.
  • Indoor: no weather factor.

DFS

ATL projected players
PosPlayerProj Floor / ceilDK $Val FD $vs
RB Bijan Robinson 24.4 15.5 / 34.6 $8,700 2.81x $9,000 #26
WR Drake London 15.6 7.8 / 28.2 $6,500 2.40x $8,100 #7
QB Michael Penix Jr. 15.0 9.0 / 22.6 $5,000 3.00x $6,900 #5
TE Kyle Pitts Sr. 6.5 1.8 / 12.9 $3,900 1.66x $5,000 #25
RB Brian Robinson Jr. 6.1 2.5 / 12.3 $4,700 1.31x $5,400 #26
WR Jahan Dotson 4.4 0.0 / 10.7 $3,000 1.45x $5,200 #7
TE Austin Hooper 3.6 0.0 / 9.9 $2,600 1.38x $4,400 #25
NO projected players
PosPlayerProj Floor / ceilDK $Val FD $vs
QB Tyler Shough 20.8 13.3 / 29.7 $5,600 3.72x $7,700 #27
WR Chris Olave 19.6 10.8 / 32.4 $7,700 2.55x $8,200 #28
RB Alvin Kamara 11.7 6.4 / 18.9 $5,000 2.34x $6,300 #1
WR Devaughn Vele 10.9 4.8 / 19.1 $4,900 2.23x $5,700 #28
TE Juwan Johnson 10.6 4.5 / 18.7 $4,200 2.53x $5,400 #19
RB Kendre Miller 7.2 3.2 / 13.4 $4,500 1.59x $5,400 #1
TE Noah Fant out 5.9 1.7 / 12.6 $3,200 1.85x $4,900 #19

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

  • Chris Olave - receiving yards 85.5 - over - #30 WR matchup, Terrell out, proj 20.8.
  • Tyler Shough - passing yards 257.5 - over - ATL #23 QB, proj 20.4.
  • Bijan Robinson - rushing yards 86.5 - lean over - NO #27 run defense, proj 23.2.
  • Alvin Kamara - rushing yards 37.5 - under - ATL #1 run defense, proj 12.7.
PlayerMarketLine ProjOverBookOpp rank
Bijan Robinson RB ATL Rush yds 89.5 105.7 +190 Bovada #26
Bijan Robinson RB ATL Receptions 4.5 3.9 +118 FanDuel #18
Bijan Robinson RB ATL Rec yds 36.5 35.7 +155 Bovada #18
Tyler Shough QB NO Pass TD 1.5 2.1 -120 BetMGM #24
Tyler Shough QB NO Pass yds 260.5 243.6 +170 Bovada #27
Tyler Shough QB NO Rush yds 17.5 17.8 -108 DraftKings #1
Chris Olave WR NO Receptions 6.5 6.9 +110 BetMGM #27
Chris Olave WR NO Rec yds 86.5 96.2 +165 Bovada #27
Drake London WR ATL Receptions 6.5 5.1 +115 DraftKings #18
Drake London WR ATL Rec yds 81.5 93.3 +170 Bovada #18
Michael Penix Jr. QB ATL Pass TD 1.5 1.0 +120 BetMGM #24
Michael Penix Jr. QB ATL Pass yds 228.5 255.7 +165 Bovada #18
Michael Penix Jr. QB ATL Rush yds 3.5 – -113 FanDuel #26
Alvin Kamara RB NO Rush yds 35.5 48.5 +165 Bovada #1

Best available over price per line. Opp rank = the defense's rank in that stat allowed (32 allows the most).

All ATL and NO props with AI grades

Injuries

ATL 8 listed
  • IR Beaux Collins WR Undisclosed Severe
  • IR Trey Sermon RB Unknown Severe
  • Out A.J. Terrell CB Groin Minimal
  • Out Anterio Thompson DT Undisclosed Minimal
  • Quest. Divine Deablo ILB Hamstring Minimal
  • Quest. Samson Ebukam OLB Unknown Minimal
  • Quest. Yasir Abdullah LB Unknown Minimal
  • IR Cameron Williams OT Ankle Minimal
NO 8 listed
  • IR Jordyn Tyson WR Hamstring Severe
  • Out Anfernee Jennings OLB Knee Minimal
  • Out Carl Granderson OLB Ankle Minimal
  • Out David Long DB Undisclosed Minimal
  • Out Dillon Radunz G Unknown Minimal
  • Out Kaden Elliss ILB Calf Minimal
  • Quest. Noah Fant TE Abdomen Minimal
  • Quest. Pete Werner ILB Neck Minimal
Full NFL injury report

Watch list

  • A.J. Terrell confirmed out - it is the pillar of the Olave lean.
  • Noah Fant questionable - clarifies NO's TE and target distribution.
  • Divine Deablo and Samson Ebukam questionable - affect ATL's run and coverage front.
  • Total already dropped a point - watch for further steam toward the under.

Week 4 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.
PIT @ CLE
Thu 8:15 PM ET
PIT -6.5
O/U 37.5
Final
IND @ WAS
Sun 9:30 AM ET
IND -10.5
O/U 45.5
Final
ARI @ NYG
Sun 1:00 PM ET
ARI -2.5
O/U 44.5
Final
DAL @ HOU
Sun 1:00 PM ET
HOU -3
O/U 48.5
Final
GB @ TB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
GB -2.5
O/U 38.5
Final
JAX @ CIN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -2.5
O/U 51.5
Final
LA @ PHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
LA -3.5
O/U 42.5
Final
NE @ BUF
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF -6.5
O/U 49.5
Final
NYJ @ CHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -3.5
O/U 43.5
Final
TEN @ BAL
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -11.5
O/U 42.5
Final
MIA @ MIN
Sun 4:05 PM ET
MIN -9.5
O/U 38.5
Final
DEN @ SF
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SF -2.5
O/U 47.5
Final
KC @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
KC -4.5
O/U 47.5
Final
LAC @ SEA
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SEA -7
O/U 43.5
Final
DET @ CAR
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DET -3.5
O/U 51.5
Final
ATL @ NO
Mon 8:15 PM ET
NO -1.5
O/U 47.5
Kicked off
Updated Oct 4, 10:24 AM ET For entertainment and informational purposes only; not betting or gambling advice.