Archived Week 4 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Thu Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET · Prime Video · Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland Division Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

2-1 · 2-2 last season

Final24

At PIT -6.5 Total 37.5 CLE covered · Over

Cleveland Browns

2-1 · 3-1 last season

Final27

Line movement open Sep 29 CLE spread +2.5 +6.5 4.0 Total 38.5 37.5 1.0

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 4/10

Total sits at 38.5, this Thursday division grind screams under with two bottom-10 offenses.

SidePASSspread stuck at 2.5 with no movement and near-even 20.5 to 18.0 implied.

TotalBET UNDER 38.5two bottom-10 offenses, Rodgers into #6 QB defense, H2H scored 19 last meeting.

Best bet

Under 38.5: two sub-18.5 implied offenses and a tough Rodgers matchup point low.

Quick hits

PIT -2.5, total 38.5, implied PIT 20.5 and CLE 18.0.
Low scoring: PIT offense #26, CLE offense #24, both under 18.5 implied.
Freiermuth vs CLE #20 TE is Pittsburgh's cleanest edge.
PIT leads narrowly, both teams run-lean given Rodgers vs CLE #6 QB.
Rain chance 18% is negligible, so form and injuries move it.

Key matchups

Pat Freiermuth vs CLE #20 TE: 13.9 fpa, FAVORABLE, softest Steeler spot.
Harold Fannin vs PIT #16 TE: 13.6 fpa, NEUTRAL, 4.5 receptions floor.
Aaron Rodgers vs CLE #6 QB: 15.6 fpa, TOUGH, avoid the passing ceiling.
Jaylen Warren vs CLE #13 RB: 20.9 fpa, NEUTRAL, volume-driven not matchup.
Denzel Boston vs PIT #19 WR: 31.8 fpa, NEUTRAL, thin sample as WR1.
Deshaun Watson vs PIT #17 QB: 17.4 fpa, NEUTRAL, capped 0.5 passing TD line.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
PIT	Jaylen Warren	RB	17.7	$6,200	CLE #11 of 32	20.3	Neutral
PIT	Aaron Rodgers	QB	14.9	$5,100	CLE #9 of 32	16.6	Neutral
PIT	DK Metcalf	WR	11.2	$5,400	CLE #15 of 32	31.7	Neutral
PIT	Pat Freiermuth	TE	7.5	$3,700	CLE #23 of 32	15.0	Favorable
CLE	Deshaun Watson	QB	15.4	$4,900	PIT #13 of 32	17.1	Neutral
CLE	Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	10.8	$4,400	PIT #17 of 32	13.3	Neutral
CLE	Quinshon Judkins	RB	10.1	$5,400	PIT #20 of 32	23.0	Favorable
CLE	KC Concepcion Jr.	WR	9.8	$4,000	PIT #16 of 32	31.8	Neutral

PIT skill positions vs CLE defense

#9/32

16.6 fpa

Bad

#11/32

20.3 fpa

Bad

#15/32

31.7 fpa

Average

#23/32

15.0 fpa

Good

CLE skill positions vs PIT defense

#13/32

17.1 fpa

Bad

#20/32

23.0 fpa

Good

#16/32

31.8 fpa

Average

#17/32

13.3 fpa

Average

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

CLE runs 56 plays (#28) at 53% pass; PIT 63 plays (#13) at 63%.
PIT favored, expect Steelers to lead and lean Warren; CLE trails, throws short.
Points scarce: implied 20.5 and 18.0, both offenses bottom-10 in scoring.

Projected points (market implied)

PIT22.0

CLE15.5

Offense profile

PITRank of 32CLE

19.2 #22 Pts / G 20.2 #21

250.2 #14 Pass yds / G 213.8 #19

94.8 #23 Rush yds / G 93.8 #24

63.5 #10 Plays / G 57.2 #27

64% Pass rate 53%

1.8 Pass TD / G 1.5

0.0 Rush TD / G 0.5

3.2 Sacks taken / G 2.8

1.0 INT thrown / G 0.5

Defense profile

PITRank of 32CLE

21.8 #14 Pts allowed / G 23.8 #18

226.0 #13 Pass yds allowed 254.2 #24

112.8 #17 Rush yds allowed 113.2 #18

2.5 Sacks / G 3.0

1.0 INT / G 1.0

1.2 Pass TD allowed 2.2

0.8 Rush TD allowed 0.0

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 4 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-10-01 20:00 local Low impact

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

78°F

feels 78°

Wind

13 mph SSW

gusts 28 mph

Rain

13%

0.00 in

Humidity

62%

Wind 13 mph: minor, mostly on long kicks

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Overcast 75F, wind 10 mph gusts 20, rain 18%, precip 0.00.
Minor wind on long field goals only; passing and totals largely unaffected.

DFS

PIT projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
RB	Jaylen Warren	17.7	10.7 / 26.3	$6,200	2.86x	$6,700	#11
QB	Aaron Rodgers	14.9	9.1 / 22.1	$5,100	2.93x	$7,200	#9
WR	DK Metcalf	11.2	4.9 / 20.4	$5,400	2.08x	$6,800	#15
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	7.7	2.9 / 14.3	$4,400	1.74x	$5,700	#15
TE	Pat Freiermuth	7.5	2.8 / 14.0	$3,700	2.02x	$5,100	#23
WR	Roman Wilson	6.5	1.9 / 13.0	$3,400	1.91x	$5,600	#15
TE	Darnell Washington	4.8	1.4 / 10.7	$2,700	1.79x	$4,800	#23

CLE projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Deshaun Watson	15.4	9.6 / 22.8	$4,900	3.15x	$6,800	#13
TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	10.8	4.9 / 18.5	$4,400	2.45x	$5,600	#17
RB	Quinshon Judkins	10.1	5.7 / 16.6	$5,400	1.88x	$6,200	#20
WR	KC Concepcion Jr.	9.8	4.3 / 17.2	$4,000	2.46x	$5,400	#16
WR	Denzel Boston	9.7	3.4 / 18.9	$5,000	1.94x	$5,500	#16
RB	Raheim Sanders	4.7	1.6 / 9.6	$4,400	1.07x	$5,000	#20
WR	Jerry Jeudy	4.2	0.0 / 10.6	$3,500	1.20x	$5,000	#16

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Pat Freiermuth - receptions o3.5 (+105) - lean over - #20 TE matchup, 10.0 proj.
Harold Fannin - receptions o4.5 (-109) - lean over - 10.7 proj, primary CLE target.
Aaron Rodgers - passing yards o212.5 (-112) - lean under - vs CLE #6 QB defense.
Quinshon Judkins - rushing yards o56.5 (-113) - lean over - 12.9 proj, lead back role.

All PIT and CLE props with AI grades

Injuries

PIT 8 listed

Out Cole Burgess WR Unknown Severe
Out Drew Allar QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Eli Heidenreich RB Unknown Severe
Out Rico Dowdle RB Unknown Severe
Out Will Howard QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Donte Kent CB Undisclosed Minimal
Out Gabriel Rubio DT Unknown Minimal
Out Jack Driscoll OT Undisclosed Minimal

CLE 8 listed

Out Joe Royer TE Personal Severe
Out Taylen Green QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Tylan Wallace WR Knee Severe
Out Damarri Mathis CB Unknown Minimal
Out Edefuan Ulofoshio LB Biceps Minimal
Out Elgton Jenkins C Concussion Minimal
Out Elijah Chatman DT Quadriceps Minimal
Out Justin Jefferson LB Ankle Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

CLE won last H2H 13-6 on 2025-12-28; PIT took prior two.
PIT 2-1, coming off 30-27 win over CIN; CLE 2-1, edged CAR 21-18.
Line static: spread 2.5 and total 38.5 unmoved since Sep 29.

PIT last 5

L 24-27 @ CLEW 30-27 vs CINL 3-20 @ NEW 20-13 vs ATLL 6-30 vs HOU

CLE last 5

W 27-24 vs PITW 21-18 vs CARW 23-19 @ TBL 10-34 @ JAXW 20-18 @ CIN

Head-to-head

Oct 1, 2026 PIT 24 at CLE 27
Dec 28, 2025 PIT 6 at CLE 13
Oct 12, 2025 CLE 9 at PIT 23

Watch list

Jalen Ramsey wrist questionable: his status shifts CLE's WR passing outlook.
Rico Dowdle toe questionable: changes Steelers backfield split behind Warren.
Grant Delpit and Elgton Jenkins questionable: CLE secondary and line depth at risk.
Gusts to 20 mph: monitor for late kicking and deep-ball impact.

Week 4 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.