Archived Week 4 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · FOX · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia Final

Los Angeles Rams

1-2 · 2-2 last season

Final24

At LA -3.5 Total 42.5 LA covered · Over

Philadelphia Eagles

2-1 · 2-2 last season

Final20

Line movement open Sep 29 PHI spread +3 +3.5 0.5 Total 43.5 42.5 1.0

The angle, before kickoff Pass · 2/10

LA -3.5 with a projected 3.5 margin: a pure coinflip, and Nacua is questionable.

SidePASSprojected margin 3.5 equals the spread exactly, no edge.

TotalPASSprojected 43.5 sits right on the 43.5 line.

Best bet

Dontayvion Wicks over 56.5 receiving yards into the LA #22 WR defense (32.9 fpa).

Quick hits

Market LA -3.5, total 43.5, implied LA 23.5 PHI 20.0.
Low-to-balanced scoring: PHI offense ranks #25 points, #26 plays.
Wicks vs LA #22 WR defense (32.9 fpa) is the softest edge on the board.
LA leads on paper, passes it (59% rate, #3 pass yards); PHI grinds (54%, #26 plays).
Nacua hip questionable swings LA's ceiling and the entire total.

Key matchups

Dontayvion Wicks vs LA #22 WR: 32.9 fpa, soft, FAVORABLE at $4300.
Tyler Higbee vs PHI #1 TE: 7.7 fpa, TOUGH, avoid.
Zach Ertz vs LA #6 TE: 10.6 fpa, TOUGH, fade.
Puka Nacua vs PHI #13 WR: 30.6 fpa, NEUTRAL if active (hip).
Saquon Barkley vs LA #9 RB: 20.1 fpa, NEUTRAL, tougher run spot.
Matthew Stafford vs PHI #19 QB: 17.7 fpa, NEUTRAL.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
LA	Matthew Stafford	QB	18.0	$6,200	PHI #16 of 32	17.3	Neutral
LA	Puka Nacua	WR	17.8	$7,500	PHI #17 of 32	32.1	Neutral
LA	Kyren Williams	RB	14.8	$5,900	PHI #21 of 32	23.2	Favorable
LA	Tyler Higbee	TE	5.6	$3,100	PHI #1 of 32	8.2	Tough
PHI	Jalen Hurts	QB	17.4	$6,600	LA #10 of 32	16.6	Neutral
PHI	Saquon Barkley	RB	14.8	$6,800	LA #5 of 32	18.8	Tough
PHI	Dontayvion Wicks	WR	11.9	$4,300	LA #18 of 32	32.4	Neutral
PHI	Zach Ertz	TE	5.5	$3,100	LA #5 of 32	9.7	Tough

LA skill positions vs PHI defense

#16/32

17.3 fpa

Average

#21/32

23.2 fpa

Good

#17/32

32.1 fpa

Average

#1/32

8.2 fpa

Avoid

PHI skill positions vs LA defense

#10/32

16.6 fpa

Bad

#5/32

18.8 fpa

Avoid

#18/32

32.4 fpa

Average

#5/32

9.7 fpa

Avoid

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

LA plays fast (66 plays #6, 59% pass); PHI slow (57 plays #26).
LA scripted to lead and throw; PHI trails, leans Barkley and short passing.
Points lean LA 23.5 vs PHI 20.0; neither offense red-zone efficient, PHI only 1.7 pass TD.

Projected points (market implied)

LA23.0

PHI19.5

Offense profile

LARank of 32PHI

21.2 #18 Pts / G 18.8 #25

300.8 #4 Pass yds / G 178.2 #32

126.8 #7 Rush yds / G 109.0 #15

69.0 #3 Plays / G 57.5 #26

61% Pass rate 53%

1.5 Pass TD / G 1.8

1.0 Rush TD / G 0.5

1.5 Sacks taken / G 3.0

1.5 INT thrown / G 1.0

Defense profile

LARank of 32PHI

20.8 #9 Pts allowed / G 23.2 #16

153.8 #1 Pass yds allowed 227.8 #14

102.0 #11 Rush yds allowed 122.0 #23

1.8 Sacks / G 1.0

0.8 INT / G 0.5

1.8 Pass TD allowed 1.0

0.2 Rush TD allowed 1.8

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 4 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-10-04 13:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

61°F

feels 58°

Wind

8 mph E

gusts 17 mph

Rain

22%

0.00 in

Humidity

78%

Overcast, 60F, wind 7 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

F, wind 7 mph, 27% rain, 0.00 in/hr: no weather factor.
Passing, kicking and the total play clean.

DFS

Stack: Stafford with Nacua if active, LA #3 pass offense.
Value: Dontayvion Wicks $4300 at 3.70x vs #22 WR defense.
Fade: Tyler Higbee and Zach Ertz, both into top-6 TE defenses.
Contrarian: Makai Lemon $4100 at 3.23x, same soft LA secondary.

LA projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Matthew Stafford	18.0	11.2 / 26.4	$6,200	2.91x	$7,800	#16
WR	Puka Nacua	17.8	9.6 / 30.0	$7,500	2.37x	$9,000	#17
WR	Davante Adams	15.1	7.1 / 26.7	$7,000	2.15x	$8,300	#17
RB	Kyren Williams	14.8	7.9 / 23.8	$5,900	2.50x	$7,900	#21
RB	Blake Corum	7.7	3.7 / 14.4	$4,900	1.57x	$6,000	#21
TE	Tyler Higbee	5.6	1.4 / 12.4	$3,100	1.80x	$4,600	#1
TE	Colby Parkinson questionable	5.2	1.4 / 11.6	$2,900	1.78x	$5,200	#1

PHI projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Jalen Hurts	17.4	10.7 / 25.1	$6,600	2.63x	$8,500	#10
RB	Saquon Barkley	14.8	8.5 / 23.1	$6,800	2.17x	$8,000	#5
WR	Dontayvion Wicks	11.9	5.6 / 21.2	$4,300	2.77x	$5,900	#18
WR	Makai Lemon	9.1	4.0 / 15.8	$4,100	2.22x	$5,500	#18
WR	Darius Cooper	5.6	1.5 / 11.8	$3,100	1.81x	$4,600	#18
TE	Zach Ertz	5.5	1.6 / 11.3	$3,100	1.78x	$4,800	#5
TE	Johnny Mundt	3.1	0.0 / 8.0	$2,600	1.20x	$4,700	#5

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Dontayvion Wicks - receiving yards 56.5 - lean over - LA #22 vs WR, 32.9 fpa.
Jalen Hurts - rushing yards 26.5 - lean over - projection favors legs over #13 pass spot.
Matthew Stafford - passing yards 248.5 - lean over - LA #3 pass offense, 295 yds/game.
Saquon Barkley - rushing yards 69.5 - lean under - LA #9 RB defense, 20.1 fpa.

All LA and PHI props with AI grades

Injuries

LA 8 listed

IR Matthew Caldwell QB Undisclosed Severe
IR Ronnie Rivers RB Calf Severe
IR Terrance Ferguson TE Ankle Severe
Out Aaron Donald DE Back Minimal
Out Daniel Rickert DE Knee Minimal
Out Eddie Walls III LB Undisclosed Minimal
Out Jaylen Watson CB Shoulder Minimal
Quest. Colby Parkinson TE Shoulder/Knee Minimal

PHI 8 listed

Out Dallas Goedert TE Knee Severe
Out DeVonta Smith WR Hamstring Severe
Out Johnny Wilson WR Knee Severe
Out Marquise Brown WR Ankle Severe
Out Andre' Sam FS Foot Minimal
Out Fred Johnson T Knee Minimal
Out Marcus Epps FS Groin Minimal
Out Tucker Large FS Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

Form: LA 1-2 last 3, PHI dropped 7-27 at CHI last out.
H2H: PHI beat LA in last three meetings (33-26, 28-22, 37-20).
Line: spread moved PHI 3.0 to LA 3.5, total flat at 43.5.

LA last 5

W 24-20 @ PHIL 26-30 @ DENW 28-6 vs NYGL 7-27 vs SFL 27-31 @ SEA

PHI last 5

L 20-24 vs LAL 7-27 @ CHIW 24-20 @ TENW 24-22 vs WASL 19-23 vs SF

Head-to-head

Oct 4, 2026 LA 24 at PHI 20
Sep 21, 2025 LA 26 at PHI 33
Jan 19, 2025 LA 22 at PHI 28

Watch list

Puka Nacua hip - his status sets LA's ceiling and the total.
DeVonta Smith and Marquise Brown questionable - affects Wicks and Lemon target share.
Spread at LA 3.5 - any move off the key number before kickoff.
Saquon Barkley usage - Will Shipley questionable foot could raise his workload.

Week 4 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

PIT @ CLE